More on the Walz affair in China; Daily Mail reached out by the affair partner.
Per your request in yesterday's poll, time for a thread on the Israeli strike on Iran. You ready?
A Thread: ⬇️
A Thread: ⬇️
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Background information.
The Islamic Republic of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program.
The best publicly available estimates out there for open source intelligence suggest that Iran is readying enough partly enriched Uranium to only need one more jump to achieve a stockpile of HEU (Uranium enriched to weapons grad, 90%). Iran is currently attempting to master the art of implosion detonations necessary to build higher yield fission devices based on HEU. They have a working, known tested design already- purchased from the AQ Kahn network in Pakistan. The head of the Pakistani nuclear weapons program sold iran and several other clients the design and engineering data of the design pakistan successfully test detonated.
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/08/29/deterring-irans-dash-to-the-bomb/
"The monograph begins with an analysis of the current status of Iran’s nuclear program. It then lists specific nuclear weapons program advances that Iran might, unless deterred, undertake and complete in the coming weeks. Within the overall scope of its nuclear weapons program, Iran is evidently attempting to advance in two major categories. The first is enrichment activities other than enriching uranium to 90 percent U-235 (weapons-grade level). The second is nuclear weaponization activities (advancing toward construction of an explosive device capable of unleashing the destructive power of the weapons-grade uranium (WGU) inserted therein). The next section derives key principles for deterring Iran based on previous successful U.S. efforts to deter Iran. The monograph then recommends specific military and non-military steps that the administration should take."
The Islamic Republic of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program.
The best publicly available estimates out there for open source intelligence suggest that Iran is readying enough partly enriched Uranium to only need one more jump to achieve a stockpile of HEU (Uranium enriched to weapons grad, 90%). Iran is currently attempting to master the art of implosion detonations necessary to build higher yield fission devices based on HEU. They have a working, known tested design already- purchased from the AQ Kahn network in Pakistan. The head of the Pakistani nuclear weapons program sold iran and several other clients the design and engineering data of the design pakistan successfully test detonated.
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/08/29/deterring-irans-dash-to-the-bomb/
"The monograph begins with an analysis of the current status of Iran’s nuclear program. It then lists specific nuclear weapons program advances that Iran might, unless deterred, undertake and complete in the coming weeks. Within the overall scope of its nuclear weapons program, Iran is evidently attempting to advance in two major categories. The first is enrichment activities other than enriching uranium to 90 percent U-235 (weapons-grade level). The second is nuclear weaponization activities (advancing toward construction of an explosive device capable of unleashing the destructive power of the weapons-grade uranium (WGU) inserted therein). The next section derives key principles for deterring Iran based on previous successful U.S. efforts to deter Iran. The monograph then recommends specific military and non-military steps that the administration should take."
FDD
Deterring Iran’s Dash to the Bomb
The Islamic Republic of Iran appears to be in the process of significantly advancing its nuclear weapons program in the coming weeks while Americans are preoccupied with politics at home and Israel is busy battling Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran may seek to establish…
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More about Iran's relationship and business partnership with the AQ Kahn network can be found here:
https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/khan-iran.htm
https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/khan-iran.htm
www.globalsecurity.org
A.Q. Khan & Iran
Following Iran's disclosure of uranium enrichment research and subsequent inspections, the central role of Pakistan in Iran's nuclear programme was unearthed. This was compounded by Iran turning over to the IAEA a complete history of its nuclear program…
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A detailed list of Iran's nuclear weapons research and development sites can be sound here, as well as details of the activities conducted at each site:
https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-background-report/table-iranian-nuclear-sites-related-facilities
https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-background-report/table-iranian-nuclear-sites-related-facilities
www.iranwatch.org
Table of Iranian Nuclear Sites and Related Facilities
The international community has long raised concerns about the dual-use potential of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, which could be used to make fuel for reactors or weapons. Israel and the United
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More on Iran's near threshold capability- meaning Iran is days or weeks away from the 'breakout' stage of having all the resources needed to assemble its first bomb:
https://thebulletin.org/2024/10/iran-vs-israel-redux-the-enormous-difficulties-and-ramifications-if-israel-attacks-irans-nuclear-sites/
https://thebulletin.org/2024/10/iran-vs-israel-redux-the-enormous-difficulties-and-ramifications-if-israel-attacks-irans-nuclear-sites/
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Why Iran may accelerate its nuclear program, and Israel may be tempted to attack it
After Israel's attack, the Iranian regime may see the actual weaponization of its nuclear program as the only option left that can guarantee its security.
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The next statement from that article is particularly relevant:
"Iran views its nuclear program as a deterrent against direct US strikes on or invasion of its territory, acting as an insurance policy of sorts against invasion following erroneous Western accusations over its nuclear program, ala Iraq in 2003. That’s to say, during an attempted invasion, Iran could quickly produce nuclear weapons."
Given today's statement to the Iranian Regime by the United States at the UN, it seems clear why the US used the B-2 Spirit with the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs to neutralize a deep underground hardened shelter the Houthi's were keeping advanced Russian made missiles in; it was a clear signal to Iran that if they escalated a war in the middle east further, the United States may take an active part in ending not just the conflict, but Iran's nuclear weapons program. Alex Hollings covered this strike here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0SMoW8AKaE
"Iran views its nuclear program as a deterrent against direct US strikes on or invasion of its territory, acting as an insurance policy of sorts against invasion following erroneous Western accusations over its nuclear program, ala Iraq in 2003. That’s to say, during an attempted invasion, Iran could quickly produce nuclear weapons."
Given today's statement to the Iranian Regime by the United States at the UN, it seems clear why the US used the B-2 Spirit with the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs to neutralize a deep underground hardened shelter the Houthi's were keeping advanced Russian made missiles in; it was a clear signal to Iran that if they escalated a war in the middle east further, the United States may take an active part in ending not just the conflict, but Iran's nuclear weapons program. Alex Hollings covered this strike here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0SMoW8AKaE
YouTube
America's stealth bomber strikes sent a 30,000-pound message to Iran
Go to https://ground.news/Sandboxx to stay fully informed on military developments around the world. Subscribe through my link right now for 40% off their Vantage Plan, which is what I use everyday.
– BREAK –
Last week, an undisclosed number of U.S. Air…
– BREAK –
Last week, an undisclosed number of U.S. Air…
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Iran's economy has two major sources of revenue for the Regime itself, the largest of which is Oil Production and sales to countries like China, and black market importation of goods to be traded inside of Iran:
https://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/blog/uncovering-chinese-purchasers-of-iranian-oil
https://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/blog/uncovering-chinese-purchasers-of-iranian-oil
UANI
Uncovering the Chinese Purchasers of Iranian Oil [UPDATED February 28, 2025]
China is principally responsible for keeping the Iranian regime in business through oil purchases that have totaled over $140 billion since President Biden assumed office in January 2021 . Four in every five barrels of exported Iranian oil go to China. This…
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Among the targets NOT hit in the previous Israeli strike are both Oil and Nuclear sites. Attacking these sites would trigger an immediate response by the Regime in Tehran. It's well known the Biden-Harris regime put extreme pressure on Israel to withhold from attacking these sites, as they view the escalating war in the middle east as bad for their electoral chances on November 5th. They were not content to simply threaten Israel with an arms embargo this time, but offered the Israeli government the deployment of a second THAAD battery to defend against Iranian Ballistic missiles to beef up Israel's Anti Ballistic Missile shield which is likely running low on Arrow 2 and 3 and David's Sling ABM interceptors.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-already-requesting-second-thaad-missile-defense-battery-us
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-already-requesting-second-thaad-missile-defense-battery-us
ZeroHedge
Israel Already Requesting A Second THAAD Missile Defense Battery From US
This would mean 200 American troops in the cross-fire...
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With ABM defenses in place, and the first strike carried out against Iran, the stage has been set. According to verified reports, Israel's attack has crippled Iran's ability to manufacture ballistic missiles, as well as attack drones. This is a key point: while Iran has a large stockpile of Ballistic missiles already in its inventory, it doesnt have the ability to replace any used or lost to further strikes. This changes the calculus- Iran can no longer simply throw unlimited amounts of ballistic missiles at Israel in at attempt to overwhelm its ABM defensive shield.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/israels-reprisal-strike-carefully-calculated-unclear-if-jets-ever-flew-over-iran
https://www.twz.com/news-features/israels-reprisal-strike-carefully-calculated-unclear-if-jets-ever-flew-over-iran
The War Zone
Israel's Reprisal Strike Carefully Calculated, Unclear If Jets Ever Flew Over Iran
The operation was a balancing act of risk mitigation and deterrence that aimed to weaken Iran's offensive and defensive capabilities.
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The Library
With ABM defenses in place, and the first strike carried out against Iran, the stage has been set. According to verified reports, Israel's attack has crippled Iran's ability to manufacture ballistic missiles, as well as attack drones. This is a key point:…
But more importantly is what the first wave of that strike did. In any large scale, sophisticated air attack against a state with a reasonable, working air defense, the task is to clear the path. Modern Air Defenses consist of numerous ground search/early warning radar sites networked together to give a clear picture of incoming attacks, and to alert and coordinate defensive systems also connected to the network: the fire control radars and Surface to Air Missiles used to attack and shoot down incoming planes and cruise missiles.
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This first phase is known by its acronym, SEAD: Suppression Enemy Air Defenses. There are various techniques for doing so that range from aircraft with missiles and tactics specially trained to hunt and kill SAM sites, to election warfare attacks that interfere with the SAM's and Search Radars ability to see the strike coming, and many more techniques that remain classified.
The Iranian Air Defense network prior to the Israeli attack consisted of several Russian Made SAM systems that were of relatively high quality and posed a serious danger to incoming strikes, as well as Iranian manufactured derivatives of the US Hawk missile system, a 1970s era medium range SAM system. The Iranian variant incorporated some sophisticated upgrades like newer digital radars and newer missiles.
The Iranian Air Defense network prior to the Israeli attack consisted of several Russian Made SAM systems that were of relatively high quality and posed a serious danger to incoming strikes, as well as Iranian manufactured derivatives of the US Hawk missile system, a 1970s era medium range SAM system. The Iranian variant incorporated some sophisticated upgrades like newer digital radars and newer missiles.
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The Russian made SAM systems, the S-300pmu2 were marginally capable at close range of detecting stealth aircraft according to Russian claims though that has not been proven. They are formidable SAM systems none the less with high quality search/track and fire control radars, and boast a much great range than the Indigenous derivatives of the Hawk system the Iranians produced. Consequently all the Russian S-300 systems were located near key nuclear or leadership targets. Reportedly, the Iranian regime had five separate S-300 SAM sites and key installations were backed up with indigenous SAM systems.
The Israeli Air Force succeeded in destroying all S-300 systems in Iran, and many of the home grown SAM sites that sat near key installations as well.
The Israeli Air Force succeeded in destroying all S-300 systems in Iran, and many of the home grown SAM sites that sat near key installations as well.
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The repercussions of this are that Iran is no longer able to detect any incoming strikes, stealth or not, or defend against them.
Additionally, the Iranian Air Force is ill-equipped to detect and stop any level of attack on Iran. Iran does have fighter aircraft, but their age and type make them unsuited for any real air defense mission against more modern weapons designed to penetrate networked air defenses, which Iran no longer has.
Additionally, the Iranian Air Force is ill-equipped to detect and stop any level of attack on Iran. Iran does have fighter aircraft, but their age and type make them unsuited for any real air defense mission against more modern weapons designed to penetrate networked air defenses, which Iran no longer has.
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Further, Iran's problems are compounded by the inability to replace what Israel destroyed in its SEAD phase of the attack it launched last friday. The primary defense capabilities of the Iranian Air Defense network, its backbone, were the S-300 SAM batteries and radars. Due to losses in Ukraine by Russia, it is simply not possible for Iran to acquire more of them from Russia. This article talks in depth about Russian losses of SAM systems particularly the S-400 which is even more advanced and rare than the S-300 which is now an invaluable commodity for Russia as it has had to rebuild its own air defense network following high profile losses of key systems. There is simply nothing to spare for Iran. The situation, as dire as it is for Iran, has no remedy for the foreseeable future.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/14/russia-had-five-s-400-air-defense-batteries-in-crimea-in-three-weeks-ukraine-blew-up-two/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/14/russia-had-five-s-400-air-defense-batteries-in-crimea-in-three-weeks-ukraine-blew-up-two/
Forbes
Russia Had Five S-400 Air-Defense Batteries In Crimea. In Three Weeks, Ukraine Blew Up Two.
Russia deployed five batteries of its best S-400 surface-to-air missiles to occupied Crimea. In less than a month, the Ukrainian navy has destroyed two.
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Simply put, the Israeli attack last Friday left the Iranian regime blind and defenseless to air attack.
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The Library
Simply put, the Israeli attack last Friday left the Iranian regime blind and defenseless to air attack.
photo_2024-10-28_18-12-57.jpg
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Now bring all that info to today: to sum up, Israeli's ABM shield has been enhanced and is ready for an attack, Iran has no ability to replenish its only offensive weapon that can effectively his Israel (ballistic missiles), the Iranian Regime no longer has a working Air Defense Network to protect those Nuclear and Oil sites that have, so far, remained untouched.
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With the US elections in just eight days, it seems clear that Israel is setting the stage to 'finish its unconcluded business' in the very near future.
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