MINNESOTA

Biden – 1,717,077 (52.40%)
Trump – 1,484,065 (45.28)%

Trump is up 161k votes from 2016 as the state nearly dropped into the GOP column, but Biden is up 349k after two consecutive elections of fewer votes, including Clinton down 178k from Obama’s re-election. They will gain votes in 2020 thanks to third parties returning.

Red – High Fraud
Yellow – Moderate/Suspect Fraud
Green – Low/No Fraud

Fair share of green counties here, but there are a ton of rural, tiny counties with little play in numbers. Hennepin is a cesspool, and Ramsey a smaller version. Biden is 2x Obama’s high turnout era record gain, plus another 30k. I’ve afforded him Obama ’08 gain plus 25%, same as Ramsey, almost certainly high.

if Biden is 228k heavy, Trump would be within 5k votes, at 0.1% margin. I suspect I’m way light on Hennepin, and believe this was a 1-3 point Trump state. Ellison told you at 4 PM on 11/3 he didn’t have the votes.

Best for audits – Anoka (12k), Carver (8k), Scott (9k), Wright 10k.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Biden – 424,921 (52.71%)
Trump – 365,654 (45.36%)

NOTE: SEE ATTACHED EXPANSION FOR FULL PICTURE

NH was a near-flip for Trump in 2016, just under 3k difference. Trump’s anti-war stance made him a perfect fit to flip NH, as the Iraq War is a key reason Bush lost it in 2004 after carrying it in 2000. Working class shift in effect as seen in the Midwestern states, Dem peak being in 2008, with a heavy share of independent voters.

Red – High Fraud
Yellow – Moderate/Suspect Fraud

If Biden is 40k heavy, his lead would dwindle to 50.3 to 47.8% (2.5%), or just 19k votes. If there is vote flipping electronically, this is likely a Trump state. I had it two or less to either candidate (tilt) leading up to the election.

Best for audits – Hillsborough, Rockingham, Merrimack, Strafford