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#NATSEC #syria #turkey #sanctions #russia
While many foreign policy experts were, and still are losing their minds over America not going to war with Turkey, I cautioned people not to overreact; today the President awarded Turkey biting sanctions that will cripple its economy.

And today, the Syrian army welcomed the Kurds into their ranks, and Russian fighter jets are actively engaging Turkish planes.

The Turks have a serious problem: they have state of the art US Equipment but their training is sub standard, their skills are crude & they are poorly led.

Now that US forces are out of the way, the Turks are going to have fight the Russians, the Syrians and the Kurds now, while their economy is gutted by US sanctions.

These sanctions aren’t the end game, either- this is the first round. There will be additional rounds of sanctions put in place until the entire Turkish economy grinds to a halt.

Erdogan is NOT popular: he is a dictator propped up by military yes men put in key posts by him.

But how long will those yes men stay loyal as the Turkish army gets mauled & savaged and embarrassed for Erdogans misadventures? How long will they stay loyal as their own financial assets approach being worthless?

https://mobile.twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1183859849223913475
I’m going to tell you what’s going to happen in Syria. Now that the Kurds are under the Syrian Army banner, they’re going to get aid like Russian Kornet guided anti tank missiles. The same missiles ISIS used to absolutely maul the Turkish army’s advanced Leopard II main battle tanks.

The other problem the Turks have now is the RussianAF will challenge Turk air strikes, both w S-300 sams & fighters. We saw today the Russians intercepted Turkish F-16s attempting to bomb Kurdish positions & the Turks fled. Without air cover, the Turkish forces on the ground will falter.

They haven’t learned anything from their first incursion, and their officer corps are still incompetent. Turkish artillery is a big weapon, but how effective will it remain in the face of russian air attacks? Turkey bit off far more than it can chew, and they’re going to choke on this jawbreaker.

Two things are going to happen: Erdogan is going to break the back of his army in Syria, and the US is going to destroy the Turkish economy- both of which together could well lead to a second, successful coup against Erdogan.

Addendum: now that Turkey & Russia are in direct conflict, how does this effect Russian offers to sell the Su-57 to Turkey as consolation prize to losing the F-35? Or further sales of the S-400?

Erdogan may have cost himself BOTH arms suppliers, the US & Russia. That leaves the chinese to sell him inferior quality copies of Russian originals.