Ukraine to Receive Fewer Battle Tanks From Allies Than Promised

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius indicated that western allies are struggling to put together two full battalions of Leopard 2 tanks to send to Ukraine as promised.

Germany and Portugal are the only two nations to commit to sending the A6 version of the Leopard 2, with 14 pledged by the government in Berlin and three from the Portuguese, Pistorius told reporters Wednesday after meeting NATO counterparts in Brussels. “We will not reach the size of a battalion,” he said.

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The military operation of Russian forces in Artemovsk (Ukrainian name — Bakhmut) is needed in order to completely tie down the Ukrainian army, which is forced to transfer large reserves to hold the city, Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner group, told reporters.

"Bakhmut is needed in order to completely paralyze the Ukrainian army. And it, in fact, is paralyzed. They are great, they cling to it. According to intelligence estimates, there are about 90 battalions on Bakhmut today and in the vicinity. About 40-50 thousand people. The enemy every day throws up new reserves," Prigozhin said.
He noted that the progress of the Wagner group is "50-100 meters" per day. “Fights go on for every house, for every meter. There is a fortified area in every garden. In general, this was to be expected, since after the liberation of Popasnaya, when we began to cover it from all sides, he had enough time,” Prigozhin added.
Artyomovsk is located in the Kyiv-controlled part of the DPR, north of the large city of Gorlovka, and is an important transport hub for supplying the Ukrainian group of troops in the Donbass.

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Poland helps Ukraine thanks to NATO "umbrella" — Stoltenberg

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Poland plays a significant role in providing military support to Kyiv thanks to NATO's "security umbrella".

Stoltenberg held talks with Polish President Andrzej Duda on Thursday at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

“We must supply weapons and ammunition to Ukraine faster…
Poland plays a significant role in this (in military support to Ukraine), including supplying military equipment, training, providing economic and humanitarian assistance.
The NATO security umbrella allows Poland to play a vital role,” Stoltenberg said at a joint press conference with Duda.
#TransFormatorBuzzes : 💤
That may be a very sophisticated way of trolling conceited Poles...
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Poland will not share fighter jets with Ukraine

Poland has too few modern fighters to transfer them to Ukraine. This was stated to journalists by Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of National Defence of Poland Mariusz Blaszczak to journalists in Brussels after a meeting of representatives of NATO countries on the topic of military support for Ukraine.

“I want to emphasize that Poland has too few modern fighters to be able to participate in such a program,” Blaszczak said, answering a question about the prospect of transferring fighters to Ukraine.

“We only have 48 F-16s. We ordered F-35s, we ordered Korean FA-50s, but their delivery takes time,” he explained.

At the same time, Poland does not object to the fact that other NATO countries can supply combat aircraft to Ukraine.

“Of course, there are countries that have a large number of these aircraft. In this regard, we support this idea," Blashak said.

The media previously reported that certain representatives of the US administration are lobbying for the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to the Ukrainian military.

US President Joe Biden previously answered no to a question from journalists about whether the Ukrainian military would be supplied with F-16s. At the same time, French President Emmanuel Macron said he did not rule out the possibility of delivering aircraft to Ukraine. The media also wrote that Paris is studying Kyiv's request for the training of Ukrainian pilots.

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Britain's defence minister said when London will hand over fighter jets to Kyiv

British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said the British fighter jets would not be handed over to Ukraine in the coming months or even years.

He said this in an interview with the BBC.

“I don’t think that in the next months we will definitely transfer fighters. We must not only plan for the fight for now, but we must help Ukraine with its long-term resilience,” Wallace said.

If the government donates fighter jets to Ukraine, Wallace said it would also have to provide about 200 Air Force personnel.

Wallace also said that Britain should start "investing properly in defence" as the army was "devastated" in 30 years and the war in Ukraine "exposed our vulnerabilities".

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🎙 Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview for the Talking of What Matters information and educational lesson themed Russia and the World

📍 Moscow, February 13, 2023

Read in full

❓ Question: How can a young citizen help their country?

💬 Sergey Lavrov: First, they need to get a profession, for which it is necessary to study well. This sounds obvious but in the contemporary world, knowledge is extremely important. <...> All of this gives a new meaning to life and new energy, when you do it not only for self-fulfilment, but you see that this is important for your country.

❓ Question: What general idea could unite all people on the planet?

💬 Sergey Lavrov: I think that friendship is such an idea. This would be ideal. Friendship is a phenomenon that transcends all borders. <...> The opposite tack of subordination and suppression, rather than friendship, is a trademark of US policy. The United States has no friendly feelings even for its allies in Europe. Their relationship is one of suppression and submission.

❓ Question: What is a diplomat?

💬 Sergey Lavrov: <...> For a diplomat, it is all about knowledge, knowledge, knowledge. Erudition in all spheres without exception and not only in history or language skills. Nowadays, diplomats should be well versed in modern technology and cybersecurity because all these issues are discussed at diplomatic forums.

❓ Question: 2023 was declared Year of the Mentor and Educator. Did you have a mentor?

💬 Sergey Lavrov: I had many. <...> I had mentors at the Foreign Ministry as well. Soon after I graduated, I spend two months working in Moscow and left for the Soviet Embassy in Sri Lanka. Soviet Ambassador Rafik Nishanov became my first real teacher.

🎙 Comment by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the upcoming release of the feature film Nuremberg

💬 As the liberator of Europe from the Nazi plague our country was one of the originators of the International Military Tribunal at Nuremberg. It was held to bring a harsh but fair judgment to the Nazi criminals and also to promote a comprehensive assessment of the tragic lessons of the Second World War and the causes of the misanthropic ideology of Nazism. The Tribunal made an invaluable contribution to the creation of the modern legal framework and to ensuring the inviolability of the global historical foundation of the Great Victory.

❗️ Regrettably, the effectiveness of the vaccine against Nazism created during the international trials has greatly decreased. Nazis and their accomplices have not only been justified but the ideology and practices of the Third Reich have been revived in several European countries, above all Ukraine and the Baltics, on a new, national-state, basis. The bloodthirsty activities of the Ukrainian neo-Nazis in Donbass and the regions controlled by the criminal Kiev regime are the grim evidence of this.

In this context, the first Russian feature film, Nuremberg, is expected to make a major contribution to combating the falsification of history and to demonstrate that crimes against humanity have no statute of limitations.

☝️ Russian diplomacy has always been committed to the firm moral principles and the memory of our forefathers, who fought heroically to protect peace and freedom during the Great Patriotic War. We will continue to do everything in our power to counter any forms of the glorification of Nazism, prevent a revision of the results of the Second World War, and preserve the historical memory of the heroic and tragic pages in the history of Russia and the world.

The Ukrainian TV channel "Resident" writes that one of the main conditions for EU membership for Ukraine was the issue of national minorities:

"But as you can see, we have not solved the problem, and Romania has already joined the Hungarians. Bankova continues to pretend that the problem does not exist and that Budapest is escalating the situation in Transcarpathia, but in reality the problem exists in all regions where national minorities live."
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"Of course, sanctions have an effect. But we don't know which one."

Minister of Finance of Sweden.

Video: @ruptlyalert
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Politico: EU ambassadors failed to agree tenth package of sanctions against Russia because of rubber

EU ambassadors failed to agree on the tenth package of sanctions against Moscow, Politico reported, citing documents obtained by the publication.
"Perhaps to no one’s surprise, EU ambassadors didn’t reach an agreement on the next sanctions package last night. One of the contentious points is synthetic rubber, which the Commission wants to sanction, according to draft documents obtained by POLITICO", the publication says.

Italy and Germany are sceptical about the idea of limiting the import of this material from Russia, while Poland supports such a measure, the authors of the material indicated.
As the head of the EC, Ursula von der Leyen, said the day before, the new restrictions will affect electronics, special vehicles, spare parts, and dual-use goods. The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, added that about a hundred more individuals and organizations, including the media and journalists, the military and politicians, would fall under personal sanctions.

European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said on Tuesday that the tenth package of sanctions will include measures to combat the circumvention of restrictions.
The Bloomberg agency got acquainted with the draft version of the draft restrictions. According to him, the European Union may introduce restrictive measures against Alfa-Bank, Rosbank, Tinkoff Bank, as well as the National Welfare Fund.
Since the end of February last year, the EU has approved nine packages of restrictive measures against Moscow. They include financial, trade restrictions, as well as individual sanctions. Now personal restrictions apply to 1386 individuals and 171 organizations.
Sanctions pressure on Moscow has led to higher prices for electricity, fuel and food in Europe and the United States. Vladimir Putin emphasized that the policy of containment and weakening of Russia is a long-term strategy of the West, and the restrictions dealt a serious blow to the entire global economy. According to him, the main goal of Washington and its allies is to worsen the lives of millions of people.

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Bloomberg reports that the Rosatom corporation is uncontrollably unfolding its wings no longer even over a regional map, but over the globe as a whole.

The British analytical Royal United Services Institute, having brought together disparate and indirect data, came to the conclusion that during the year the Russian nuclear corporation increased its export portfolio by 20 percent at once. It is noted that growth was facilitated by an increase in sales volumes — both physical infrastructure (reactors) and fuel. The last position brought two-fifths of the corporation's profits.

Exact data on profits are not known, but overseas experts estimate them at tens of billions of dollars.
Bitter disappointment oozes data on US allies in Europe. In particular, such NATO members as Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia have been steadily buying fuel assemblies with fuel for their own nuclear power plants over the past 12 months. They tried to sweeten the pill with official statements by the politicians of Bulgaria, Finland and Slovakia, who vowed to change the supplier of fuel for nuclear power plants, but at the moment they have not been found and it is generally unclear who, in principle, can be contacted on such a sensitive issue. Because the only major competitor of the Russian corporation — the company Urenco — hardly closes the current portfolio of orders.

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The 25-year agreement between Iran and China indicates that both countries firmly control their sovereignty. This long-term agreement opposes US hegemony.

Arnold August, journalist, writer and political scientist.
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American intelligence officer called the main fear of the United States in the conflict in Ukraine

The main fear is that the conflict in Ukraine could escalate uncontrollably, into which the United States itself will be drawn, retired US military intelligence officer Rebecca Koffler said on Fox News.
“This is an endless conflict that is turning into another Afghanistan, and now is the time for the Pentagon to think about what its ultimate goal is. We have no strategy for achieving victory, no strategy for getting out of the conflict, and it is time to take seriously what is happening. If this conflict does not stop soon, it will tear Europe to pieces," she stressed.

According to her, the Ukrainian crisis has exposed the inability of the Pentagon and the Biden administration to make plans for the future. She accused the American leadership that Washington is supplying Kyiv with many billions of dollars of weapons, but no one indicates "concrete and achievable goals" in the conflict.

#TransFormatorBuzzes : 💤
Well, in our understanding, this woman is an enemy. However, she is an intelligent enemy, and she is seeing the Western problems from inside (and is not afraid to speak out). Our respect💤👍
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What Putin Got Right

As seen by Stephen M. Walt, a columnist at Foreign Policy and the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

First, the Biden administration hoped that the threat of “unprecedented sanctions” would deter Putin from invading and then hoped that imposing these sanctions would strangle his war machine, trigger popular discontent, and force him to reverse course. Putin went to war convinced that Russia could ride out any sanctions we might impose, and he’s been proved right up till now. There is still sufficient appetite for Russian raw materials (including energy) to keep its economy going with only a slight decline in GDP. The long-term consequences may be more severe, but he was right to assume that sanctions alone would not determine the outcome of the conflict for quite a while.

Second, Putin correctly judged that the Russian people would tolerate high costs and that military setbacks were not going to lead to his ouster. He may have begun the war hoping it would be quick and cheap, but his decision to keep going after the initial setbacks—and eventually to mobilize reserves and fight on—reflected his belief that the bulk of the Russian people would go along with his decision and that he could suppress any opposition that did emerge. The mobilization of additional troops may have been shambolic by our standards, but Russia has been able to keep large forces in the field despite enormous losses and without jeopardizing Putin’s hold on power. That could change, of course, but so far, he’s been proved right on this issue, too.

Third, Putin understood that other states would follow their own interests and that he would not be universally condemned for his actions. Europe, the United States, and some others have reacted sharply and strongly, but key members of the global south and some other prominent countries (such as Saudi Arabia and Israel) have not. The war hasn’t helped Russia’s global image (as lopsided votes condemning the war in the U.N. General Assembly have shown), but more tangible opposition has been limited to a subset of the world’s nations.

Most important of all: Putin understood that Ukraine’s fate was more important to Russia than it was to the West. Please note: It is by no means more important to Russia than it is to Ukrainians, who are making enormous sacrifices to defend their country. But Putin has the advantage over Ukraine’s principal supporters when it comes to being willing to bear costs and run risks. He has an advantage not because Western leaders are weak, pusillanimous, or craven, but because the political alignment of a large country right next door to Russia was always bound to matter more to Moscow than it was going to matter to people farther away, and especially to individuals living in a wealthy and secure country on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.

This fundamental asymmetry of interest and motivation is why the United States, Germany, and much of the rest of NATO have calibrated their responses so carefully, and why U.S. President Joe Biden ruled out sending U.S. troops from the get-go. He understood (correctly) that Putin might think Ukraine’s fate was worth sending several hundred thousand troops to fight and possibly die, but Americans didn’t and wouldn’t feel the same way about sending their sons and daughters to oppose them. It might be worth sending billions of dollars of aid to help Ukrainians defend their country, but that objective was not important enough for the United States to put its own troops in harm’s way or to run a significant risk of a nuclear war. Given this asymmetry of motivation, we are trying to stop Russia without U.S. troops getting directly involved. Whether this approach will work is still unknown.

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Sea ​​lions in Kamchatka.

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Former presidential aide Surkov said he did not count on the implementation of the Minsk agreements

MOSCOW, February 16 — RIA Novosti. Former assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Vladislav Surkov, who previously oversaw the Ukrainian direction, said that while working on the Minsk agreements, he did not expect that they would be implemented.
"No," Surkov replied in an interview with the head of the scientific council of the Centre for Political Conjuncture Alexei Chesnakov, answering the question of whether he proceeded from the fact that the Minsk agreements should be implemented while working on them.

A set of measures to implement the Minsk agreements to resolve the conflict in the south-east of Ukraine was signed on February 12, 2015 in Minsk. The document, consisting of 13 points, provided, in particular, a ceasefire in the Donbass, the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the demarcation line between the Kiev security forces and the militia, as well as other measures for a long-term political settlement of the situation in the Donbass. Kyiv systematically violated the Minsk agreements.
Earlier, Volodymyr Zelensky admitted in an interview with Spiegel that he himself had told former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron that the Minsk agreements were "impossible" and that he did not plan to implement them. Before that, Merkel (who served as German chancellor from 2005 to 2021) said that "the 2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give Ukraine time" to become stronger. In turn, François Hollande, who served as French president from 2012 to 2017, agreed with Merkel that the Minsk agreements gave the Kyiv regime time to become stronger. Both participated in the Normandy Four summit, which agreed on a set of measures to implement the Minsk agreements. Boris Johnson, during a visit to Kyiv in late January, said that the Normandy format of negotiations on Ukraine was a "diplomatic imitation."

#TransFormatorBuzzes : 💤
Well, was there anyone on either side, who did believe in the possibility of the Minsk agreement implementation? Putin did. Or did he? If their aim was to buy time for Ukraine — then who Mr. Surkov was working for?🤔There are more questions than answers in the whole story. So who was cheating on who?
Update: It appears, that Peskov (and that means — Putin, as Peskov is not supposed to have own opinion...) did count on the implementation of the agreement.
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Blinken: Crimea a ‘red line’ for Putin as Ukraine weighs plans to retake it
The secretary of state, in a private call with experts, expressed his hesitation about a possible Ukrainian offensive for the peninsula.
Politico
A Ukrainian attempt to retake Crimea would be a red line for Vladimir Putin that could lead to a wider Russian response, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a Zoom call with a group of experts Wednesday.

The Russian president sees Crimea as fully part of Russia, not Ukraine, and would be loath to see the peninsula ripped from his clutches — even though that’s precisely what he did to Ukraine nearly a decade ago. Republican and Democratic administrations have since then said repeatedly that “Crimea is Ukraine.”

The top diplomat’s comments, sure to frustrate Kyiv, came after someone on the private call asked if the U.S. is willing to help Ukraine realize its long-term goal of retaking the territory seized by Moscow.

According to four people with knowledge of Blinken’s response, he conveyed that the U.S. isn’t actively encouraging Ukraine to retake Crimea, but that the decision is Kyiv’s alone. The administration’s main focus is helping Ukraine advance where the fight is, mainly in the east.

That assessment echoes comments from Pentagon officials in recent weeks, who have spoken about the grinding fight still raging in the Donbas and in the country’s south, and who have questioned Ukraine’s ability to take Crimea in the near future.

Blinken, according to two of the people, gave the impression that the U.S. doesn’t consider a push to retake Crimea to be a wise move at this time. He didn’t say those words explicitly, they underscored.

Two other people didn’t take Blinken’s comments that way. The secretary remarked that it is solely the Ukrainians’ decision as to what they try to take by force, not America’s. That signaled to them that Blinken was more open to a potential Ukrainian play for Crimea.

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Are negotiations with Ukraine possible?

The commander of the battalion "Vostok" Alexander Khodakovsky ("Skif") expressed his opinion on the prospects for negotiations with the Ukrainian side.

“Are negotiations with Ukraine possible? Not only possible — this is, in the end, the only possible outcome of the confrontation.

The diplomatic impasse is resolved by the last argument of the kings — war. This is what the United States has done with its adversaries in our time — for example, with Iraq — this happened in our situation.

Iraq is remembered today in connection with the military aspect, pointing out that the Iraqi campaign prompted Russia to make structural changes to the army. But Iraq should also be studied in its post-war form — what happened to the country and what a pain it became for the States: no one have heard that a healthy and prosperous state appeared on the world stage — post-Saddam's Iraq.

But Iraq is far from the States, and Ukraine is at our side — and we cannot help but think about its post-war status.

But let me return to negotiations and peace: I will have to talk, but with whom and with what cards in my hands? It is important.

Now Ukraine hopes for one thing: with its successes on the battlefield, but more within the framework of the information confrontation, backed up by successes on the battlefield, to shake up the situation inside Russia — only then can it talk about Crimea and not only. We understand that we are now standing in the middle of the swing, maintaining balance, and it is important for us to maintain balance.

If Ukraine, or rather the West, fails to realize its global plan, we will press Ukraine. It will cost more than we would like, but we will press it.

But you need to press it in such a way as to pull out the sting from the scorpion completely — then negotiations are possible.

What remains of Ukraine should become a peaceful and prosperous entity, unable to gather more military potential for itself and the people on the mountain.

I do not believe that we will be able to occupy the entire territory of Ukraine, and most importantly, to keep its disloyal population under control without resorting to constant violence — I do not believe.

If we dare to swallow the ruff whole, then we risk getting a lump in the throat spread by spikes. Therefore, in the current state of affairs, we must create final advantages for ourselves, from the position of which we will talk,” Khodakovsky summed up.

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Russia was not pessimistic in the negotiations on Minsk-2, the Kremlin said

Moscow was initially not pessimistic about the Minsk agreements, its goal was to reach a settlement of the situation, said presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
"No, of course not. There was a goal to fulfil, implement these agreements and reach a settlement," the Kremlin spokesman said.

He recalled that later the representatives of Ukraine, Germany and France - direct participants in the Minsk process — openly stated that this was camouflage to prepare Kyiv for a forceful solution to the Donbass problem.
Earlier, former presidential aide Vladislav Surkov, who oversaw the Ukrainian direction, said that while working on the Minsk agreements, he did not count on their implementation.

Peskov advised journalists to seek clarification of these words from Surkov himself.
"You know how much the Russian side has made efforts on the negotiation track in order to force the Ukrainian side, and Berlin, and Paris to still take the path of implementing the obligations that the parties assumed under these Minsk agreements," he said.

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Zelensky Loses His Blank Check as U.S. Tells Him Support Is 'Finite'

The military aid destined for Ukraine could be in jeopardy, with U.S. support increasingly being seen as "finite" by some lawmakers.

On Tuesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reaffirmed the United States' commitment to Ukraine. Speaking at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels, Austin said the U.S. and Kyiv's allies "continue to work together to provide Ukraine with full combat-credible capabilities and not just equipment."

It had been reported the previous day that the Biden administration was gearing up to announce another aid package destined for Ukraine. According to The Washington Post, another tranche of "large military assistance" is expected to be unveiled within the next week.

"We will continue to try to impress upon them [Ukraine's leaders] that we can't do anything and everything forever," one senior administration official told the paper.

But the Institute for the Study of War think tank noted that U.S. officials have "privately signaled to Ukraine that Western security aid to Ukraine is finite."

Yet Austin described Kyiv as being at a critical juncture in the war effort, with the first anniversary of the invasion fast approaching.

"Ukraine has urgent requirements to help it meet this crucial moment in the course of the war," he said on Tuesday.

Speaking in his evening address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said "speed is of the essence," including in "carrying out decisions [and] shipping supplies."

At the moment, bipartisan support for the U.S. financially backing Ukraine "remains fairly robust," according to Rob Singh, professor of politics at Birkbeck, University of London.

Lawmakers are also likely to continue with their approval for Ukraine support packages if an anticipated Russian offensive "inflicts even more death and destruction," he said.

Yet there is also a growth in how many Republicans believe the U.S. is giving Ukraine too much help, Singh told Newsweek. Many Republican congressmen still back sending aid, but a "small but important group of populist nationalists are much more skeptical."

Earlier this month, Florida representative Matt Gaetz put forward a "Ukraine Fatigue Resolution," in which he called for an end to the military and financial aid being sent to Ukraine, as well as a peace agreement.

"President Joe Biden must have forgotten his prediction from March 2022, suggesting that arming Ukraine with military equipment will escalate the conflict to 'World War III,'" Gaetz said in a statement to Newsweek.

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