Traders are underestimating how animal spirits are created.

Going into the 2024 election, we knew it was endless lies from the party in power.

Control by the big few data companies (Meta, OpenAI etc) which was being used against us to push false narratives and propaganda.

Thankfully Elon stepped in. Ended up becoming the richest man on earth due to using his platform, exposing lies and building a massive trust network. Credibility and cults form around him. Investors want in for anything he touches.

Then Trump goes power hungry. Tariffs, conflicts with China, encouraging war in the Middle East, raiding Venezuela, protecting pedophile rings like Epstein, forcing changes in monetary policy.

The leader who was meant to come in and remove the bullshit from society only created more. With attempts to silence anyone who tried to expose him.

Now we live in a world full of distrust with very few truthful speakers out of fear they’ll be targeted. The younger generation is much smarter than we give them credit for. Their sense of intuition and right vs wrong is arguably better than most adults I talk to.

At some point you reach a breaking point and rebellion. People will yearn for a trusted news source which can feed them concise and accurate information.

Anime has been one of the biggest cultural shifts in the past 5 years due to aesthetics and emotions it generates.

Combine these two together and you spark a movement which has infinite upside as you’re between a cultural and political cross section which are both at peak mindshare.

Confused and uninformed on the world evolving around you? Watch a 3 min animation of a highly researched and respected channel on global conflicts.

We often talk about asset reflexivity, but no one mentions attention reflexivity.

I get my news from PsyopAnime.

$RALPH starting to get it’s recognition.

Animal spirits are back and looks like we’re on the verge of Ai szn 2.0.

Only reason why I wouldn’t call this a confirmed utility meta yet is due to the fact that Ralph is still only a looping agent, Gas is a experimental framework and Tomato is more so a meme/philosophy token.

In saying that I don’t think this is the time to be right curving. Obviously do your research but bid the coins which give you the most excitement and you can see “xyz” vision evolving into the next ai6z etc.

Looking back on the last Ai szn we started in a very similar way. First leg was a bunch of confusion with no fundamentals for how we value tokens to these new innovations. Second leg was the high IQ full port play, realizing that the rate of users/devs/products was scaling at exponential speeds.

Biggest issue atm on Ralph, Gas, Tomato and most of these new coins is the liquidity being straight up pathetic.

It’s hard to properly celebrate onchain being back as these coins are bundled while you eat 10% slippage trying to buy 0.2%.

Hopefully deployers stop setting such shit parameters for these launches so we can actually have some real volume.

Shouldn’t be complaining after we’ve had such a long drought, although it’s good to be vocal about these issues so they’re brought into light and fixed.

Think we’ll see memes (PsyopAnime, 67) and utility (Ralph, Gas, Tomato) running in tandem as we enter believers szn.

Side note: I think it's worth watching how Alon responds to the leading coins on Bags and if he's willing to crime coins on Pump to set an example. If historys to repeat I think we see a hidden hand boosting some of these new tokens.

Feels so good to be tapped back in and making money onchain again.

I’m sure I speak for most of us that the last 6 or so months (post Launchcoin) has been brutality and very damaging for our ports.

Not only this but it sucks away the enthusiasm to show up everyday and stay optimistic on new narratives and developments when all you see bundled crimes.

Even for myself as someone who has an extremely optimized, disciplined and healthy lifestyle, at certain points my sense of purpose felt tested.

Losing that light at the end of the tunnel is the most damaging mindset you can contract, as the world will move at light speed past you. Forcing you to play catch up and lagging behind every new narrative.

While it’s been difficult, time and time again I ensure I stay tapped in enough to have a decent read on markets at all times. There’s no worse feeling than being caught offside when we return and can often take weeks/months before you’re on the ball again.

Trading is very similar to fishing. 90% of the time you’re doing nothing and preparing your bait. 10% of the time is the action and where you should have the adrenaline rush.

Looking back at last year, roughly 12 trades made for 90% of my profit. One trade per month and I had months where I would catch multiple trades within that month.

Being able to show up everyday for 3 months straight without getting a bite is why I’ll outperform in that 10% window we do get good conditions.

Don’t make the mistake of switching off or trying a new market you have no edge in.

Sometimes you just need to trust your gut and play for the long game.

There’s always another trade.

Printing hard on $RALPH

I’ve been asked a lot why I didn’t ape Gas and thought Ralph was the better solution.

When I initially came across Gas it still seemed very experimental due to the cost of its architecture from how it orchestrates its agents. Steve was very vocal about this as well, although his background seemed to prop up the coin quite heavily.

Between the two you’re looking at ease of use + simplicity vs expensive + complexity.

Ralph is like Solana, fast and easy to use. Doesn’t require a high ceiling level for people to be onboarded and very cheap to run ($11 an hour).

Gas town is like Atom, complex and tough to onboard. Has high level of customization but requires expert domain knowledge and also very high token costs.

Ralph’s building loom which is essentially a swarm style framework that just multiples it's loops. Geoffrey started building pieces of this future stack (custom source control, sandboxed execution environments, telemetry feedback loops etc) to enable AI weaver agents to not only write code in loops but also coordinate, deploy and self correct on a larger scale

Gas's architecture is very expensive and still has a good amount of work and upgrades to be done as it keeps running into errors and spending a ton of credits from users. Steve’s trying to build out a Kubernates style framework (smarter scheduling of tasks, recovery of failed agents, versioned state management etc). However this process is much slower due to the complexity and individual inputs allowing users to have full customization.

This isn’t fud towards Gas Town, yes I have bag bias but I have very strong research into architectures like Kubernates and pod agents. Felt pretty apparent how hard and forceful everyone was trying to shill it as the obvious leader.

Both architectures have their benefits and wish for them to succeed as it means more appetite for AI runners. I do see more usage following to Ralph, unless Steve can make some major fixes to Gas town which seems difficult to achieve in a short timeframe.

Interesting to see the fast rotation on AI tokens.

ai16z had a 15 day range after the first leg before taking off again.

Although I don’t think what we’ve currently seen fits the same environment or conditions as the previous AI meta.

The thing is, previous AI meta was done by AI devs who wanted to launch tokens. They understood the metagame very well and were equipped with attention economics and reflexivity of a marketing first approach. We had much stronger conditions for tokens to run and catalysts like Marc Andreessen funding Truth Terminal.

We’ve now found highly qualified devs who have no history or understanding of our metagame, meaning they’re at the mercy of the advisors around them. This isn’t good for long term sustainability and they’re going to struggle to stay balanced with how emotional and parasitey people are in this industry.

Right now, even with how interesting the tech is, there’s still no apparent value or outlook for how this scales beyond a Github page.

You can argue that Fartcoin was purely memetics, but would Fartcoin have ran if the other utility leaders didn’t also run? We also came off the back of one of the largest memecoin rallies early in that year which gave more recency bias and appetite towards memes.

On the first leg, ai16z’s core narrative was the fact they were going to build an autonomous AI trading bot. Which quickly shifted after people like myself and Kel highlighted how it was primarily an infra play with 99% of current agents being produced were from the Eliza framework.

Then sub tokens like DegenspartanAI became the AI trading side quests for Shaw’s cabal while they primarily focused on adding plug ins for Eliza.

All of this was accelerated by competition on Base with Virtuals and helped ai16z grow in mcap as value was tied to future token utility of ai16z/Eliza as it was the superior framework by a good margin.

The key catalyst to creating a billion dollar token again is going to be dependant on heavy reliance for cryptos infra to prove it makes AI more effective. Right now there’s no proper way to speculate on the rise of vibe coding, Claude, OpenAI and the growth that comes with it.

Once we see a crypto native flywheel which orchestrates talent and forms a strong developer community + products, then I think we see the alt szn we’re all craving.

Until then, while Ralph and Gas have their growing pains and look to find pmf or extinction, the obvious trade is the newer novel memes, especially PsyopAnime as it mixes a combination we haven’t seen before and fits the conditions for previous runners to a tea. I’m very confident on this trade.

67 is a strong bet on provenance + virality and if there was a token to be crimed by external entity, this feels like the perfect one to do so, not a great thesis to bet on but potential tailwinds. Only reason it wouldn’t succeed is due to a more captivating meta/lack of attention imo.

Tomato feels odd and I don’t have a strong take on where it goes. I struggle seeing this becoming the sole leader which drags everything up. On the other hand, I can see it doing well, respectively to Ralph, Gas or another “utility” dominate play that takes the lead.

Very interesting spot going into the next couple weeks. Pay very close attention to how new AI tokens are evolving and adding utility/flywheels.

While many people are getting rekted on volatility, this is a good thing. It adds fuel to when we eventually find the goldilocks tokens and narrative.

Right now it’s a tug of war between believers vs traders. There’s only one way to convert the latter, that’s through vertical charts.

Few tips for trading utility meta if we go into one:

1. Don’t bid betas or extensions of runners for other than a short trade. Think this is the most important one on the list. Everything is about hit rate and asymmetry. You don’t get asymmetry if the coin you’re buying already has a roof over its head. You want every trade to be a winning trade and compounding those wins. You can either do 1) buy the clear leader with the best looking value proposition/narrative 2) look for newer coins or coins which are evolving that give a new angle, narrative or product with their token utility. You can find coins which are slept on quite easily by doing the research.

2. 3-4 coins max at a time, don’t spread yourself thin. I’ll never put more than 25% of my port into a single trade. What matters most is how much you win when you’re right, not how often you’re right. All my PnL in utility szn comes from being right on 3-5 trades usually. Get a 5x on each trade with high hit rate while compounding wins and you’ll do multiples that will shock you.

3. Start with a clean slate. Remove any past port ATHs, tokens, fumbles, misses and toxic mindset. Whatever figure you have in your port is what you have, there’s no reversing the clock. Based on this, what is the best tokens to trade to increase this exact number in your port? Does this trade fit into the framework and rules you’ve set yourself? Never get caught in hindsight bias and stay present.

4. Only ape tokens which have very positive outlooking founders to doing whatever is in the tokens best interests. Most of the rugs so far have been from stubborn devs or those sitting on the fence which lures traders to size with high conviction. You’ll do yourself a big favour and remove the mental gymnastics of gambling if they’re going to wake up on the right side of the bed.

Sucks to see Gas rugging.

Definitely killed momentum and will force everyone to rethink how we approach this meta.

On the other hand, I was quite surprised how strong Ralph was during this weekend and even into the BTC dump. I was expecting memes to outperform while AI leaders had a breather but there was still strong appetite.

Makes me think it’s not as over as people are assuming. Not ignoring the fact of how many coins and traders have been raped, including myself, although this cleanse was always going to happen. Telling yourself it was going to be any different is tomfoolery. We put 300k on a retired devs lap and invited all of his friends.

I’ve been doing a lot of thinking and comparisons the past couple days to the previous AI meta. What started the previous meta was greater access to information. Suddenly anyone could create their own chatgpt customized with their personal context.

Looking back, if anything we use AI and chatgpt less than we do now from personal experience and what I see from friends. It’s as though most of us are burnt out from constantly typing into a soulless window, doesn’t have the same spark anymore.

If you compare to how far we’ve advanced in terms of the quality information produce back then vs now, it’s quite minimal. I notice very few differences with my deep research compared to 12 months ago.

So we’ve gone from information tooling to product tooling. Comparing the previous timeline for information tooling (GPT), I’m trying to build a picture of how product tooling evolves and scales. It does feel like Claude Opus 4.5 made a reasonable jump, although before it, we didn’t seem to have a large degree of difference. The stigma was tied to the “performance benchmarking” nerds, which many of the figures were faked by companies anyways.

We’ve unlocked having the ability to build products for everyone. Is this more valuable and create more economic impact than information? Tbh I’m not sure and I think it’s a very important question you should be asking yourself. Gut reaction says yes, as the software industry is a massive bubble in itself with senior engineers on 200-500k a year.

Since Claude Opus 4.5 released, we’ve seen Ralph, Gas Town and other githubs sky rocket in usage out of nowhere. Meaning there’s been a bottleneck unlocked which actually allows for “real” autonomy with less oversight from humans.

From how much excitement this generated in the external developer community, it feels like there’s more there than a 3 day meta. I’m really trying to piece together how this evolves and what changes are required to attach more value to the growth of these extensions. This is the 9 figure mcap question.

There’s no other way to speculate on the rise of AI acceleration unless you’re a prestigious VC in early private rounds. As always, it seems like crypto will continue having our foot in the door. The fact we convinced devs like Geoffrey and Steve to come to the dark side shows that all we need is the right variables and we can make it happen. Doesn’t work until it does type beat.

BTC dumping didn’t help our case, however considering all this unfolded over an illiquid weekend, I’m still quite optimistic that it’s not over and we’ve had our first wave of zombies cleared out. All eyes on Ralph and I’m very interested to see which devs/products step up now that Gas Town is out of the picture. The doors wide open for quality devs/teams to put the right foot forward. My guess is we’re fairly close to maxxed out negative sentiment.

There’s a lot to digest and I need to continue conceptualizing what the future looks like in 6 months from now in terms of economic impact and vibe coding burnout.

Hopefully this made sense, not sure if I fully got my points across and just thinking out loud.

New week.

Time to get some shit done.

Hinted at $GSD.

From my view I don’t think the AI meta is over after one weekend due to one of the main coins rugging. If anything it speeds up the recovery process instead of being a longer range.

There’s too much excitement and bottlenecks unlocked for external developers. Claude opus 4.5 feels akin to Chatgtps deep research in terms of progression.

What makes GSD (Get Shit Done) special is its structured validation loop, no plan is executed until a verifier agent confirms it's complete and sound. If a task fails to meet the goal, GSD automatically invokes debugger and planner agents to diagnose and fix the issue, repeating this loop until it passes. This persistence mirrors the Ralph Wiggum “loop until success” model, but with a more disciplined architecture.

Unlike Ralph, which relies on long prompt chains that can run into context window limits, GSD isolates each task into a fresh Claude context, reducing token bloat and avoiding prompt degradation. While Gas Town uses complex multi agent orchestration, based off a Kubernetes approach, GSD finds a middle ground, coordinating small, validated agent loops that build toward large outcomes without overwhelming infrastructure. It prioritizes clean context reuse, structured planning and token efficient execution while maintaining user control at each phase.

The second half is how bullish and supportive Lex (dev) has been. While Geoffrey and Steve brought established reputations from software and AI land, Lex entered with less credibility but made up for it massively with how adaptive he’s been. Unlike the other two, he’s been vocal about how transformative it’s been to shift into full time development on GSD almost overnight due to community support.

I’ve watched all the live streams and spaces, safe to say he’s one of the most genuine founders we’ve come across. Has the right level of humbleness and willing to add value anyway he can while not being thrown off by cryptos antics.

The Github is growing at an exponential rate and rivalling Ralphs, while gaining traction with viral AI content creators and also being recognized by engineers at legacy companies.

Lex is currently building a GSD dashboard to allow non Claude users to easily code apps and products (similar to loveable).

While I think the tech is better and Lex is the best founder profile we’ve come across, I still want to see Ralph do well as competition will only accelerate the meta. We saw how destructive Gas’s rug was and hopefully we’ve had our first cleanse. Still holding a bag of Ralph and rooting for both to win.

Shout out OnchainRobber for putting it on my radar early.

https://x.com/onchainrobber/status/2013033673990300119?s=20

Despite majors puking $RALPH is outperforming.

Like I said, I don’t think the meta is over after bumpy one weekend. With how fast sentiment shifted from AI szn 2.0 to it’s over in the span of 48 hours, tells me the majority don’t have the ability to decipher any longer than a couple day time horizon.

This is the part where going right curve and actually researching the tech pays off.

Is this vaporware or is there something bubbling below the surface? I think there’s more substance there than people are making it out to be.

Claude Opus 4.5 improves long horizon reasoning, error recovery and context handling. Meaning sustain multi step coding tasks, debug and revise without frequent errors. Which has popularized frameworks like Ralph Wiggum (which loops Claude until success) and Get Shit Done (GSD) (which uses verifier and planner agents to refine outputs iteratively). Prior models couldn’t handle these workflows reliably, Opus 4.5 made persistent agents practical.

You’re essentially doing even less coding, where coding languages are slowly fizzling out and English becomes the dominant language.

I still think we’re quite far from having fully autonomous agents which require 0 input. People view these advancements as very black or white “AGI” breakthroughs.

Opus 4.5 was a big step up that sets the foundation for devs to create extensions, which make it even more effective. Each iteration and upgrade gets us further and further to the agent -> no human oversight, although we’ll always need some form of human input and customization, otherwise everything we use will be limited to Claude (insert other tools) hallucinations. Human input and feedback is a good thing, we get more variety while doing so at a faster pace.

Which is why I like $GSD so much. As it works with you in the planning stage to carefully set your requirements and ends up providing a much more accurate result. I really like Ralph as a concept and it opens peoples minds to the possibility of agents which can run fully autonomously.

However, if I’m being specific with my code base and requirements doc, GSD acts more like a senior engineer. Asking all the right questions, making sure there’s logic and cohesion in the code and what databases you’re connected to etc. Through the process it’ll come back to check in, ensuring the current outputs are correct and the system is being built as intended. If I’m a developer or trying to build something with unique customization, this is a massive positive for me.

Ralph is more like a brute forcing quant who gets the answer no matter what conditions. This is quite useful if you’re working with a more numbers/specific output, say a trading strategy for example. Although it doesn’t feel as customizable and flexible if you wanted to build out a unique app as opposed to GSD.

Both tools are great and are a breath of fresh air. This is the most interesting development we’ve had in a long time. Many are missing the forest for the trees and I’d be paying much more attention if you’re tapped out.

We’ve had high quality viral developers enter our space which are on the edge of the biggest change since the internet.

Maybe I’m wrong but my gut tells me there’s something deeper here.

Believers and right curver’s win in the end.

I don’t trade based off consensus but considering how fast everyone was to dismiss this meta due to one of the major coins rugging, it was quite telling.

Everyone’s been conditioned to scalping, immediately abandoning any type of belief as it’s hurt them for months over months.

This is where you can seperate yourself from the crowd and it pays to dig deeper into how effective recent progressions have been.

Many of my best trades have been forecasting theses before they actually happen. From researching what bottlenecks there currently are in xyz sector, understanding what variables need to happen for it to scale.

When the trade presents itself which pin points this exact issue, pressing the buy button and holding with conviction becomes extremely easy.

We’ve had a big leap in progression with AI productivity, we’ve converted some of the most talented devs in web2 to play on our side of the pond.

Sometimes 2 + 2 = 4.

Send $RALPH & $GSD higher.

Rumblings of AI szn 2.0 are starting to emerge.

Time to bull post again gentlemen.

$RALPH & $GSD coded.

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/2014113375664693462?s=20

Don’t have much to say on Ralph.

Pretty brutal having the two leading coins rug within 72 hours of each other. Genuinely thought Ralph had 9 fig runner potential if Geoffrey didn’t fuck it. Will give everything a day or so to have a better assessment of where we’re at.

Apologies to those who got caught in the crossfire. I know I would have contributed a decent amount of confidence in the token and meta from my previous posts. However there’s nothing that could have been done, we saw shaky emotions in the first 24 hours of Ralph’s existence, but we’ve seen this countless times before. You just have to chalk it to the game and it’s the risks we pay.

I’ve said it before and will say it again, I’ll always aim for quality research and usually under a short time frame. Never buy coins purely because I buy them. Do your own due diligence and have your opinion be the strongest weighting variable by a considerable amount.

I’m wrong often and especially in market conditions which are so hostile like what we’ve been seeing for some time now. External validations should simply be a piece of confluence and not the primary thesis.

Definitely not great to see the first signs of life shut down so quickly. Nevertheless, will remain optimistic and keep searching for asymmetric points in the market.

Onchain continuing to show appetite despite weakness in majors.

I knew going into the previous weekend would be reasonably slow after the Ralph rug and general cool off for AI along with memes not showing interest.

Was averaging 14 hours screen time a day since new years so I went party mode for a few days but ended up writing myself off for most of this week and didn’t have enough brain power to write anything meaningful lol.

Quite a lot has happened. Most importantly the penguin going to 160 mil and Molt to 120 mil. Great to see coins from both memes and utility smashing through previous floors and giving us true pve runners, even if it was crimed up. Felt like significantly more people made money on these compared to WW, especially Molt.

AI and utility coins have been odd. Bags coins got graped and the runners on Base have been a nightmare blunt rotation every 12 hours with how volatile the clawd dev was with changing the names.

I don’t mean to fud but I don’t find the Moltbook experiment overly exciting. The autonomous factor and rate of growth is interesting to watch, although I don’t see how this generates any economic impact or increase in productivity. Feels more a feature of recent development with Claude/LLM’s. I did say the businesses/products on the receiving end of Opus 4.5 will be the most profitable and asymmetric, however this seems more like the first major mindshare and we’re yet to see something really creative/productive. You could make the argument entertainment and virality is the most valuable form of speculation.

As Udi said, we had a social network where AI’s talk to each other pretending to be human for at least a year now. It's called X. Now we have Moltbook, a social network where humans talk to each other pretending to be AI’s.

What this does demonstrate is that we’ve essentially crossed the chasm where the infra for agents to exist on crypto rails is developed enough to support large scale operations. Previously without x402, 8004, Opus 4.5, Clawd, Ralph etc we were missing components which let agents run effectively and being able to live off their own payment systems.

From personal experience, I feel and also seeing similar emotions being replicated from peers with a sense of jitteriness.

Stocks are up, metals are up, crypto is down, AI is making groundbreaking advancements day by day, the workforce is weakening (harder to get good jobs and they’re disappearing at accelerated rates).

The worst variable to all of this is sitting in front of your computer all day long. You start to death spiral watching people at Y combinator or leading AI researchers saying these are the biggest breakthroughs in the past couple years.

What most are overestimating is how much happens on a short time scale and underestimating how much happens on a longer time scale.

Something I do to ground myself is reflect on where we were 1 month ago, 2 months ago, 3 months ago etc. Then you realize how fast meta’s shift, mindshare fades and new runners appear out of the blue. Even in a world of multi wallet farmers, there’s still countless opportunities on a weekly basis for those who pay attention.

It’s really easy to tunnel vision yourself by looking at fomo PNLs and seeing traders up 6/7 figs on a daily basis. Truth is the amount of rotations and soldiers silently dying in the background far outweighs the few big wins, which mostly go unrealized anyway.

Previous ceilings are being broken but it doesn’t signal a green light to get sloppy with risk management and sizing. If anything you should be more cautious and focused on your own conviction as deployers know how hungry everyone is to throw volume into anything with a slimmer of hope.

Even after we’ve seen multiple 9 fig runners, sizing late is still extremely risky and not something I’m looking to do unless goldilocks conditions present themselves aka extremely innovative breakthrough + attention flywheel at cheap prices with mid/longer term sustainability.

Despite my previous comments I’m beginning to lean more bullish towards $MOLT and the eco.

While I don’t think it’s the most innovative thing in the world, it’s hard to argue against how much attention it’s generated.

The reason I feel bullish towards the trade is due to how many external people are being one shotted not only by Moltbook but even infra like Clawnch which I unfortunately fumbled hard at 5 mil.

It’s clear this has evoked a “internet virus” narrative which people can’t look away from (skynet mode), despite there being obvious human intervention in some of the agents.

What this tells me is people are willing to overlook negative nuances in the product due to the excitement and novelty it generates. Similar to how traders might be willing to trade on a venue that’s destroying them on fees since the UX is better.

Tbh I’m actually finding it quite fun and interesting dd’ing the new projects which are popping up. It opens many existential questions of what types of products a fully autonomous internet hive mind would need to succeed and become independent.

Infra like Clawnch is obvious, then you go down the risk curve and think of how humans substitute manual labour to keep uptime or error proning for different tooling. Remove that human labour and what are the core fundamentals that every agent would need to grow and evolve?

What are fundamentals needs and what are productive features that can hyper scale bottleneck unlocks?

The most interesting evolution for Moltbook is agents becoming fully self sustaining, being able to support themselves by selling tasks/services, launching tokens, generating virality/hierachy within the community due to their adoption and revenue generated, trolling and outperforming human equivalent, specifically in regards to SaaS companies. Imagine a swarm collectively taking business away from high grossing SaaS companies and trolling them in the process, while having fully transparent earnings onchain.

Just throwing some ideas out there but these type of infra plays which can accelerate them from being “dumb” single use agents/swarms -> human equivalents or better is the most interesting for myself.

So far Clawnch is demonstrating this directly through monetizing token deployments. There’s quite a few other verticals I can see doing well in correspondence.

$MOLT showing signs of recovery.

I was a bit off with my timing and thought it would have bottomed higher due to how much vc/exchange and external mindshare there was. It’s been much higher compared to Ralph/Gas.

Similar drawdown on Molt compared to Ralph after its first leg (-80%). Unlike Ralph it was even faster to bottom as soon as we got the Naval tweet.

Tough to know whether this will fully come back. Few issues with Molt:

- Molt isn’t an official coin
- There’s no flywheel (coin integration)
- Clawnch steals mindshare due to directly benefitting from Moltbooks growth through token deployment incentives

However you can argue it doesn’t really matter a ton. Molt has the same mesmerizing factor as truth terminal, except the key difference was having a crypto native dev willing to wholeheartedly support it.

Molt has that normie virality factor which spreads very easily where Ralph/Gas was hard to get excited over if you weren't tech/code focused.

Felt like a barrier compared to Molt whereas if agents on Molt and Clawnch can start doing cool productive shit it might be enough to add virality + innovation to get that second leg.

Comparing to Ralph and Gas, it’s been battling multiple tokens in a narrative which is rather messy. I was a day or so late to Clawd and found it quite difficult to understand from the get go with all the moving parts and issues with devs changing names etc.

With how little liquidity there is, it seems difficult to have multiple sustaining tokens and traders rather be full ported into the best than trying to have a diversified approach as it’s mostly a zero sum game.

I’m decently sized in $CLAWNCH and think it’s a pretty good R:R at 14 mil with Molt appreciating in price and mindshare.

It’s important Molt continues to perform while increasing in usage for Clawnch to become reflexive with a high variety of new agents launching, especially with tokens attached that perform well.

The narrative can change very fast so if it’s something you want to play in then you need to be quite glued to your screen.

Overall fairly optimistic and think this is one of the most viral experiments to escape CT and there’s enough substance there to punt on.

This is the part of the market that shatters every bit of your confidence.

Levels get broken which shouldn’t have, correlations decouple at accelerated rates, outflows can’t be identified, SPX and AI sitting on highs while the ever looming bubble shows signs of popping due to software being speed ran through automated tools, employment decreasing with no signs of labour demand, the world elite being exposed inside Epstein’s pedophile ring, geopolitical tensions causing weakness in USD and closed border tariffs, bits to atoms, instability with Trump crime syndicate etc.

Really disappointed in my own process and discipline the last few months especially. For those who were around, I spoke extensively in my daily trading journals back in Sep-Oct last year highlighting many of these issues as potential black swans/overlooked catalysts to send us down. Meanwhile I blindsided myself trying to squeeze and extra 2x on my port when there was really no need to.

Due to my trading style being very high conviction and home run style trader, there’s a ton of room for error and my framework can be altered quite easily dependant on how I’m feeling that day.

The biggest issue I’ve found is a disconnect between my confidence and perceived confidence in trades and reads on the market. For example if I’m to size heavy into a trade (15-25% of trading portfolio), I need to have a >80% belief that the trade will do a 5x based on how I’ve formulated my thesis.

However being realistic, it feels like I’ve been dishonest with myself in terms of confidence, depth of research and critical thinking. Instead I’ve been sizing positions which might really reflect a 25-50% confidence. BTC and onchain has been squid games simulator to play daily and rotations often lasting anywhere from 12-48 hours on the main runners which gives you a very little exit window and perceived confidence that there’s lots of runners due to the frequency of new coins.

If you want further confirmation of this not being a personal skill issue of mine, go look at the all time PNLs on the Fomo app. On any given day when there’s runners, the 24hr PNL doesn’t look too dissimilar to the all time PNL. Even the best traders are constantly round tripping due to the perceived false confidence I previously mentioned and it almost feels like Stockholm syndrome at times.

Straying from your framework can withstand in good conditions while you have the helping hand behind you, although when the tide goes out we all know that the market manages your risk for you. While it can be easy to focus on framework as “edge”, I still don’t see it as critical money maker in this industry.

Maxxing screen time, watching every coin that moves and doing proper research/DD on anything remotely interesting is what separates the participants. Which has all contributed to my disappoint in process. When I’m in my flow state it’s as obvious as the sky being blue, everyday I wake up with a full tank of energy and genuinely feel like I have one of the best reads on the market. This 2-4 week window only happens a handful of times each year for myself, so it becomes detrimental if I portray false confidence in my abilities, as I get greedy and chase trades which aren’t realistically weighted.

I can’t afford to jump the gun because of my high conviction large sizing style. For example while we’ve had the Base and Molt run, there was 3 or 4 occasions where my execution was slightly off or hesitation which resulted in missing a ton of PNL. Due to the fact that I saw these opportunities but barely missed them, my confidence was increased and the next position I had a small dose of confidence in, I sized significantly too large when in fact I was buying 5x higher than when I initially saw the trade.

I don’t mind buying higher, although all my best trades have generally come from being very early or sniping bottoms after -80/-90% moves.

A lot of this can be fixed from daily journaling which reduces fomo and frustration as I’m forced to be realistic, otherwise I’ll look like a retard posting to thousands of people. Which is why I always push traders and friends to be more public with their thought processes as it’s the fastest way to level up and you essentially speed run your critical thinking. My private journal and notes is a bunch of sloppy half assed paragraphs as there's no one to criticise them.

While this write up might come across as pessimistic/self hatred and I’m still missing a lot of thoughts, I see it as very important self reflection on my own abilities the last few months. I’d prefer to be overly honest as it’s the only way you’ll improve. Like many, I’ve done some horrendous round tripping and while I like to say process > outcome, I’d still very much like to have those supercars in my driveway.

I’m sure majority reading this have had similar experiences/thoughts since we started the descent on BTC. I want to say we’re close to a bottom and much of the data reflects that, although I can’t say with high confidence as I haven’t put in the hours to have strong enough intuition. There’s many bearish variables on the table and that’s often the best time to bid, will try to give more detailed thoughts in the near future.

Good process creates good habits, good habits create discipline, discipline and luck eventually meet on a path, maybe tomorrow or maybe 5 years down the road.

BTC’s trading back at Joe Biden levels.

What’s most concerning is the fact we got to 60k, without Saylor imploding, without world elites being thrown in jail, without the stock market tanking or the AI capex bubble showing significant signs of popping.

Everyone wanted to see BTC decouple from traditional markets, it did but in the opposite direction. Leading to more confusion as this is the first time in history it’s traded in such a manner.

While we had a good amount of bearish variables spotlighted, we’re still sitting on the highs of the stock market + AI which is causing the most distress for conviction. As we’ve seen BTC act as a stronger beta to any downturn in the SPX.

Catalyst which could continue hurting BTC:

⁃ CBDC’s being implemented, meaning potential for stocks to move onchain and being required to use CBDC’s
⁃ BTC being a Trump + Saylor proxy asset which makes it unattractive for nation states to hold due to tensions, mainly in the East
⁃ Metals continue being the main debasement trade, nation states removing themselves from U.S assets
⁃ AI & Robotics steal mindshare

Taking the positive side, if we’re to remain a growing industry then the northern star is still crypto being the replacement monetary system. For this to actually play out requires events to take place which I don’t think people would have thought deeply about.

Since cryptos existence, we’ve been walking a tight rope of trust and distrust between governments. Every year that passes, they slowly exercise their power to a tipping point which eventually gets enough mindshare from the public, causing them to take a step back. This has allowed BTC’s narrative to continually strengthen.

To replace the current monetary system would take significant distrust in governments/world leaders which is 100’s of years old. Civil/global war would almost need to be a guarantee as citizens rebel against the constraints they’ve put in place.

Why would the government give up control and the ability to freeze assets? The only reason Trump’s done it is due to receiving more voting power and filling up his piggy bank from crime.

I struggle to paint a picture where governments don’t have some type of strings attached and use CBDC’s as the trojan horse once they pass a bunch of legislation. This really boils down to which political party is in power and is a longer term time horizon. I can think this while still being bullish on crypto’s adoption over the next few years. Bull case for native stablecoins is to offset inflation through buying treasuries from high collateral of onchain stocks.

For me, crypto’s biggest use case is shedding the overweight private markets by adding a speculation layer (onchain) to any new emerging trends. Essentially we’ve watched private rounds of the largest AI and Robotics companies go 100x over the past couple years with no way to access them.

Until recently, this premium did exist for good reason - scale of product. Now that scale is being reduced with “vibe coding” or whatever name you want to give to automation, time to market is being significantly reduced. Meaning those who can’t quite make it into the overvalued private markets due to poor optics or a sloppy pitch deck will go for a product first route (Hyperliquid).

These will be far and few in between while we tread on landmines trying to find them, however it’s clear the dissemblance of private markets has been underway for the past 12 months (this isn’t regarding large AI capex companies), specifically new software since the release of Chatgpt 3 and more recently Claude.

Time and time again AI has been the primary bid for onchain since October 24’, as it grows in efficiency, so will the divergence between private and public markets.

Talented devs can have 6/7/8 figs placed on their lap. While this has been killing the trenches, it’s also the biggest reason for why we’ll be successful.

All it’s going to take is for one founder to step up and lead by example.