$OOB (180 mil ATH) - some type of neo banking/payments which has $50 mil of buy pressure coming from a DAT

$AVICI (70 mil ATH) - the leading neobank coin in mindshare atm

$1 (48 mil ATH) - 1 coin can change your life, bonk cabal meme

$SURGE (40 mil ATH) - new ICM platform, very stacked optics and kind of like a keeta style play

$CPT (38 mil ATH) - energy efficiency protocol, circ mcap was only 5% when launched

$DUPE (35 mil ATH) - online furniture store with strong flywheel

$DREAM (34 mil ATH) - multi chain x402 framework, had really strong strength

$WOJAK (21 mil ATH) - vamped the OG memecoin, pushed very hard by KOLs

$67 (21 mil ATH) - new vamp by one of the first people to start it and seems to be adapted by Pump now

$CYPHER (17 mil ATH) - high transaction volume neo banking coin on base

$MONEROCHAN (13 mil ATH) - started as a monero meme by schizo Chang but seems to be evolving into a privacy framework

$PPX (12 mil ATH) - new predictions project, looks pretty grifty

$FOG (12 mil ATH) - defi privacy coin

$SANA (7 mil ATH) - neo banking, beta to Avici

$ORGO (7 mil ATH) - AI operator project

$ST (4.5 mil ATH) - A network of ocean robots on virtuals

$MEC (4.5 mil ATH) - mertcash memecoin deployed by kain from SNX

$PIGGER (4.5 mil ATH) - wigger pigger, very retarded meme

$SPSC (4.5 mil) - shit piss skin can, you can literally sell shit in a can

Where do I see markets tomorrow (majors & onchain)?

While I haven’t been writing, I’ve still been semi active watching and trading. Had some IRL stuff I needed to do which made writing harder. My read on the market isn’t super confident as I haven’t been in my usual flow state.

So the 4 year cycle is confirmed? No. There isn’t a single person who knows (besides maybe the president) whether it’s going to play out like previous cycles or not. Outflows have been the same participants since BTC’s inception, except inflows is new money, older money, slower money who will and have already changed market structure significantly.

We’ve never topped after distributing for 180 days in a 20% range like we’ve just done. So you can already say there’s some big nuances to previous cycles and I think it’s quite obvious it’s now a mature asset and we shouldn’t be expecting large swings.

I’d be quite surprised if we broke through 92k in the next 4-7 days. We’ve had 3 weekly red candles with a -20% move off a de coupling from stocks. If we somehow can’t hold that over the next week then I’d expect 85k to have serious demand, maybe a monthly or bi monthly bottom.

It feels like we’ve crossed the other side of fair value and we’re tipping towards extremely oversold. Rate cuts are only sitting at 46% chance for Dec 10th and there isn’t a single positive catalyst being discussed on CT.

Even if stocks to move down from here, BTC will start becoming too attractive of an asset to own and will eventually start receiving heavy demand. Until we start seeing the real cracks of fiat debasement and unemployment trickle into society or a complete reversal of fed policy, I still believe BTC leans towards being an accumulated asset.

One important thing to note is the amount of outflows has been insane. The fact we ranged for as long as we did is more bullish for myself as it means coins are exchanging hands with new buyers at significantly higher prices, always something you want as they have higher sell targets.

Everyone who’s purchased BTC in the last 195 days is underwater. Cryptos becoming less correlated from good trades to bad trades. Only 5% of alts are profitable against BTC and they’re sitting in a deep capitulation zone.

The further this drops the more attractive good assets become. I believe there’s a ton of great alts and onchain projects which are extremely discounted and I’m starting to buy little bits around 93k. If we get a move down to 85k then I think we’re quite close to being about as extremely oversold you could get on alts and you’ll be getting some very free 5-10x’s if you have the stables to fire.

Spotting bottoms has always felt incredibly easier than spotting tops for myself. It’s like the silence speaks to you in a different way than the noise at tops. Levels become easier to map out, previous sentiment correlates more closely with current, human emotion feels more predictable in negative situations than positive.

I still see the cloudy macro forecast which could crumble everything, however I’ve been here enough times that you can still find very good trades in these pockets of mean reversion, even if it’s a slow bleed in the long term.

% of move/time taken = depth of reversion.

There’s no way to sugar coat it other than this market being straight brutality.

Even with how hard this flush has been, we’re still only 32% off the highs which is a very standard bull market pullback.

Right now the biggest overhang and fear is Micheal Saylor and MSTR’s leverage. Knowing one single entity has 3% supply leveraged on a failing company feels like something which eventually gets chased and squeezed out by large players in the market.

Tldr on Saylor/mNAV: there’s no debt covenants that force Strategy to liquidate BTC, the mix of zero FCF, fixed payouts and growing reliance on equity issuance makes a run on the common stock plausible.

Strategy’s debt problem isn’t its low interest convertibles, but the $732M annual obligation from perpetual preferred stock, that creates pressure, potentially forcing BTC selling or signal liquidity issues if ignored.

This essentially becomes game theory of investors second guessing each others beliefs. Saylor needs to pay loans off for the borrowing of perpetual preferred stocks each interval, if the mNAV drops below 1, each dollar raised through the ATM issues more claims on a shrinking pool of value, making the funding progressively more dilutive to common shareholders.

I haven’t done the maths but I believe the mNAV is sitting just above 1. Even still it doesn’t concern myself on the shorter/mid term as they’ll be able to dilute more MSTR to pay the loans, except I do see this becoming a longer term issue if we spend considerable time at lower levels on BTC or MSTR trading extremely low/imploding.

With that being the biggest overhang and not much concern in the short to mid term, I’m getting much more aggressive with trading and positions in the low to mid 80’s on BTC.

Alt’s especially (OTHERS) is coming down to major support and are at the bottom end of capitulation levels. The R:R for finding good products is getting exponentially better.

What’s interesting is unlike previous market crashes, this actually feels like one of the first times we have working products where some even generate revenue. This is also true for onchain. Low caps has always been pure speculation but since we now have vibe coding that’s abstracted a lot of the heavy lifting for solo/indie teams, plus plug ins and infra becoming more reliable, there’s going to be a shift where onchain projects get repriced as they’re no longer vaporware.

This isn’t ICM hopium either. Like the early internet days of 2000 to 2006 was a heavy rebuilding period, what came the following years were most of the current Mag 7 companies.

Similarly, I think we’re quite close to crypto’s turning point where legitimate products start gradually increasing, maybe it takes a year or two, however I believe we’ve crossed the other side of vaporware speculation and the path forward is much brighter than the one before it.

Reason I want to start getting more active, especially in shitty conditions, is the real builders become very obvious and demonstrate they’re emotionally stable enough to not be effected by price and constantly searching for pmf.

You find the Hyperliquids, Polymarkets and Pumpfuns in slow markets. You also don’t have your attention fragmented with a million things at once, allowing for higher quality research and constructing theses.

Stocks look like ass and VIX is quite concerning. I still believe BTC front ran stocks + the 4 year cycle theory which has accelerated selling significantly, I can see one large flush for SPX on the horizon, this would force further rate cuts though.

Maybe I’m pulling the trigger too early, however the R:R for onchain and alts feels too good not to be taking a stab as everyone mentally checks out. Trump hasn’t shown any interest to cause uncertainty to the markets and fear mostly stems from umemployment and accounting fraud from Mag 7 company revenues lol (ai capex bubble).

Don’t get irrational and be cautious of sizing, however I think we’re very close to a bottom at 85k.

I’m growing more and more confident that we’ve bottomed in the 80-85k region on BTC.

We hit 4 standard deviations (stdv) for the first and only time since march 2020 (just as bad as the covid crash).

If we were to trade at 78.5k that would have placed us at 4.5 stdv, which is a 1 in 300k probability. Considering we traded to around 80.5k we weren’t far off one of the largest anomalies we’ve ever experienced on BTC.

A couple posts ago I mentioned: % of move/time taken = depth of reversion

So taking these points into account, I don’t see how we trade much lower or continue a downward trend without a reasonable reversion.

I’m seeing a lot of good traders second guess their execution and thoughts which is a key sign I look for with pico bottoms. The move from 85k to 80k felt very similar to the April lows where it moved from 80k to 74k.

This essentially broke everyone’s framework and destroyed confidence as it shattered one of those “it shouldn’t go any lower than this level”.

You’ll also see a commonality of traders saying “we just haven’t had a big liquidation cascade yet”. Dawg we literally almost hit 4.5 stdv and the highest mean reversion we’ve ever seen on BTC.

There’s been an inverse misconception that there’s no retail flows this cycle (no blow off top), so we shouldn’t have large drawdowns.

ETF’s caused the illusion that led everyone to believe that these are “institutions” buying when in fact it’s largely been a vehicle for retail to buy through as it becomes easier to manage alongside their other portfolio structuring.

Which is quite evident through glassnode data, showing realized losses have surged to levels last seen during the FTX collapse, with short term holders driving the bulk of the capitulation. November has also been the largest month for ETF outflows by a significant margin.

Crypto’s underperformance comparatively to stocks and gold purely boils down to the fact that we’ve had our Super Bowl moment the past 12 months.

⁃ Trump coming into office
⁃ Institutional acceptance + ETF’s
⁃ BTC on 401k’s and soon to be used as collateral

We simply ticked off the most important catalysts since crypto’s inception. All last cycle everyone would fantasize about dumping on the suits heads (degenspartan mode).

Which is what we’ve seen by OG’s selling in bulk (4 year cycle theory + 100k psychological barrier) plus retail capitulation as the future bid becomes less obvious from what catalyst will cause it.

Interesting Onchain Plays

Returning to tradition and playing the game I love. I realized I’ve become more of a mindset and macro channel as I've grown, hesitating to share low caps in shitty conditions.

While I want to continue those topics, my skillset's always been in onchain. With poor conditions, I held back on plays because I hate seeing people get rekted, so I only shared high conviction ones. But that’s a bitch ass mindset, you can make money in any market.

I used to frequently post these style write ups and share opinions on new plays several months ago. That was the fastest growth in my trading and execution as it forced me to think critically about exciting new projects publicly.

Will aim to be more consistent with these write ups as I want to increase my onchain trading again and find good plays to share.

$AVC (4.5 mil)

Pro’s:

Launched by Fred Wilson who’s the founder of USV (VC firm). He runs the blog avc xyz which has 40k subs. Paragraph xyz is a new blogging platform that he’s using for his page. Paragraph has backing from multiple VC’s and close ties with Coinbase. Instead of creator coins, they support author coins. Aiming to rival platforms like Substack and giving writers more monitization. USV also invested in Paragraph, where AVC looks to be the first and spotlighting token for the platform. I caught this quite early thanks to Game sharing and this trade reminded me of DTV which I fumbled a 20x on. R:R gets less attractive towards 10 mil imo. Circ mcap is half as Fred vested 50% of supply over 3 years.

Con’s:

Creator coins have very short life expectancy. Even with DTV which was launched by a multi billionaire, we only saw an initial 24 hour discovery period into 1-2 days of strong PA before inevitably dropping 90% and struggling to have any sustainability. I think we see a similar outcome for AVC.

$MACHINES (3.8 mil)

Pro’s:

Neobanking project with cracked optics. Alex (dev) previously worked with Bridgewater associates (Ray Dalio), Head of Product at Flipside crypto, government defence roles, advisor and integrating privacy features into infra projects like metamask, Paxful, Polygon, Trust Wallet etc. Alex also understands the game theory of user incentives and shares his research in notion links which is quite cool. Beta for the virtual card is in December and Interspace which seems to be their mobile app that expands on the product offerings in January.

Con’s:

Not many cons other than the waiting period for the virtual card to release and seeing how the tokenomics will be intertwined with Machines and also Interspace. Currently exclusively available only in the U.S but expanding to other regions. Also says there will be KYC process in the FAQ?

$LUMEN (1 mil)

Pro’s:

Kled but for code. I brushed this off when I first saw it but after thinking more deeply I really like the business model. This is a very pure crypto product where it’s a marketplace to submit code and receive automated payouts. They can then sell this code to third party data companies which increases the flywheel of the token. Already has a strong POC with $30k in payouts and 2.5k users. A vertical that would be really interesting is if you can submit incomplete projects or requests a specific app/tool to be built with a bounty and it essentially acts like a fiverr marketplace. This product can become very scalable and the premium for mcap grows exponentially as it does, reason why I own a decent amount.

Con’s:

There isn’t really any red flags considering it already has POC and sitting at 1 mil. Team is essentially one main dev and a couple others who are part time. Roadmap is very defined and it’s clear what the objectives are to scale, dev has the ball knowledge you’d be wanting for this type of product and isn’t like crashout Patel. This is one of those plays which gets overlooked as it isn’t immediately shiny but as the metrics, partnerships and products become more developed, it can turn into a monster. Fits nicely into the vibe coding and AI capex bubble narrative.

Finally wrapped up a bunch of travel and irl stuff which has been distracting me from writing.

I’m someone who’s hyper sensitive to their environment. For example when I go overseas, it takes me 3-7 days to proper adjust to new locations and find a good form of rhythm (jet lag, training, diet etc) as my thoughts and work is typically deep thinking or involving building intuition based off large amounts of information and sentiment analysis.

I was fortunate enough to be able to isolate myself for long periods where I could have uninterrupted work. This is something I highly recommend to anyone who’s struggling to break out as a trader or with their business in general.

The times I level up the most is either:

1. Completely isolated environments where all I have is gym and work
2. In a deep hole after taking heavy losses

Ideally you want to avoid 2 as much as possible as it’s not a good energy to pull from and hard to maintain healthy relationships and views on your own self.

I wasn’t able to fully maximise this though as I was moving fairly often and had to do stuff like getting my wisdom teeth out and the anti-biotics cooked my focus so couldn’t write as much.

Since I’m a very high conviction persona, it takes significant time researching to build that conviction, so if I know my quality of research is not on par with my requirements then I’d rather just not write because I’d only be giving takes which have minimal effort put into them and you can go find those opinions quite easily.

If I go MIA it’s usually because I’m playing sports/training and recovery or grinding ranked games. I’m still almost always looking at the market unless on a purposeful break.

While chasing money is the #1 goal, there’s no greater enjoyment in life than playing sports and training at a high level with the homies.

There’s one golden rule I’ve kept throughout my journey ever since I entered crypto/business. It’s to always maintain a high fitness, strength and health level.

At the end of the day, if you strip away the money and grind, what are you? What are your hobbies and what do you really enjoy?

If crypto magically disappeared tomorrow, I know I could manage because while I love this industry and nothing comes close to the mental stimulus, I’ve built a consistent enough life and habits away from it that I don’t make it my entire personality.

This is very important in being able to survive and playing the long game until you finally hit it big off that one play or streak of good trades.

So much can change just in a month time frame and if you don’t have the right mindset and habits away from the computer, it’s extremely easy to hit the self destruct button (moving away from your framework and acting spontaneously). I still get the thoughts everyday and it’s something you’ll always need to continually battle with.

You really can’t delay or push health aside. Something helpful I’ve always done is set minimum thresholds for my fitness, strength, mobility/stability levels etc.

If I can’t do xyz movement, workout, lift then there’s clearly an imbalance and I need to put more energy towards health instead of trading.

Yes it’ll take time away from making money but there’s no point being rich while your body’s poor.

It really doesn’t take much to significantly change your quality of life.

Daily Trading Journal - December 3rd, 2025

How do I feel about markets today (majors & onchain)?

BTC’s strength over the weekend felt quite telling. I tend to use weekend PA as stronger judgement when you’ve recently had large volatility for the continued direction. Reason is due to ETF flows being offline and price is moved by HNW individuals, MM’s, larger OTC desks or trump insiders. Regarding the pyramid of information and who’s most likely to have their finger on the pulse, the group I mentioned is at the top of the hierarchy and dictating PA.

The ones moving price over an illiquid weekend are more likely to be trading due to fundamentals and multi day outlook as opposed to stronger algorithmic traders who play off market opens, correlations and flows during the weekdays.

So I put more weight on weekend PA as I see volume coming from more “fundamental” style trades.

There’s been a lot of discussion around being in a bear market vs year long range vs underperformance. The bear market fear stems from us being at highs only 1-2 months ago so technically we should be going into some type of 6-12 month hell period where nothing really happens, mimicking previous cycles.

I don’t agree with this idea. I never gave much thought or care to the 4 year cycle theory as I don’t feel like it effects onchain trading or perps a ton, except the more I’ve been thinking about the backdrop the more confident I am that crypto is an entirely different asset class that’s going to and has already been trading unlike any previous timestamp in history.

Trump, Vanguard, Blackrock (insert any other new institutional name) have made it clear they’re going balls to the wall after tokenization. This is in their best interest for surveillance (stablecoin CBDC trojan horse) and complete control over a fresh market as stocks are heavily regulated.

Imo a move to 50-60k on BTC with this backdrop would correlate to a 15k BTC post FTX crash. There’s just too many people who want to own BTC and it’s such a small asset relatively that when it reaches certain levels they’ll go Saylor mode and accumulate extreme amounts of supply.

While under Trumps control, it’s hard to be overly forward looking on the longer term due to his spontaneous irrationality. The best projections for markets is understanding the growth and technological impacts of innovation. Economics 101 is understanding sinks and faucets. If Robotics becomes the highest growth sector the next 12 months, what industries does that propel? What industries does that crush? How will unemployment look? What happens to the bond market?

These simulations become artificially affected when you have tariff scenarios like back in April, although it plays into the hand of those with geopolitical, manufacturing and supply & logistics expertise. Where is breaking point? How is the economy affected without Chinas presence? What happens to global reserve currencies if China loses 50% of its exporting power? How is GPU pricing affected by this > supporting the AI capex bubble powering the S&P 500.

There’s always a Ying to a Yang. The worst thing you can do is look at markets as one dimensional. Everything has a domino effect and I believe going through the interest rate hike bear market of 2022 was the biggest unlock for my thinking in this regard, as it taught me to think in terms of sinks and faucets, alongside learning in-game economies and MMORPGS.

I find it hard to see the U.S letting the economy tank. They know how important the AI race against china and more importantly robotics. Chinas pushing the envelop on robotics considerably and its not a race the U.S can afford to lose.

I think positioning in markets is very dependent on what creates the hardest economic times against china without outright crashing the economy and scaring people from deleveraging on the AI/tech companies. You can make the argument that the U.S wants to crush china but I think people are overlooking the second order impacts of doing so. China is an economic powerhouse which still provides a lot of value to the U.S. Crushing them isn’t purely +EV for the U.S economy and would inflict higher costs of production for many industries + debasement of other global reserve currencies.

Some random pieces of information I found quite interesting:

1) Tether largest individual holder of gold besides central banks
2)Vanguard the largest player in passive flows to allow clients to access cryptocurrency ETFs and funds
3)Black rock writing about how tokenization is going to change finance
4) the OTHERS weekly chart looks identical to Solana’s weekly chart. Guess it’s a representation that speculation on alts has been closely linked to Solanas performance for overall “risk on”.

What are the most exciting narratives?

What I’ve found as the most interesting narrative to watch has been the meme renaissance with Fartcoin. Fartcoin has been the holy grail of risk asset signal, makes a lot of sense that onchain has been in a down trend for the last 5 months which was also in line with the decline of the launchcoin eco, fartcoin topped mid July and launchcoin started its death decent around a similar time.

The reason for fartcoin bottoming was wintermute running out of their option expiry to sell tokens and now it trades purely as a meme with no toxic flow overhang.

Couple this with being on generational support + down only for 5 months (-90%) + the highest mindshare token on CT and one of the more mainstream coins + lack of exciting utility projects, I can see and have been trying to catch trades which reflect a bounce in memes and their eco (Pump).

When we enter lulls in the market due to flushes, memes have always been the first to find appetite. I’ve mentioned this a few times in the past but the best and most consistent sign for onchain to bottom is having a meme which runs straight to 50 mil like Wojak, as it catches everyone offside since believers confidence has been shattered. There’s also lack of appetite for utility since speculation is low and memecoins serve as a casino compared to traders trying to rerate different business models based off innovations in web2 with utility coins.

I find it hard rebidding vamps of coins like Wojak, I had 1% of the OG Wojak on Sol as a beta to Troll and bet on provenance. The vamp clearly had some type of insider bid as it would never have meaningful pullbacks and the usual cabal in from the get go. That’s the issue I see with the meme renaissance narrative as you can’t have confidence because if the KOLs aren’t in the original coin they’ll just vamp it even if you have the right thesis.

If Fartcoin runs I think we’ll see more strong betas which have higher floors than your usual utility plays as Fartcoin is such a liked asset by CT and onchain in general. I like fwog but have personal bias cause its the trade which took me out of the trenches right before ai szn started and I’ve always loved the art and style. Newer memes are probably more asymmetric than older ones though. A safer play is Pump which feels easier to trade based off Fartcoins strength if you’re looking for alternatives. I got stopped out of my trade due to high lev but would have made a lot if I had a slightly lower entry.

Metadao has become the consensus/safer utility trade. Uber has a good thesis which is due to the fact that holder distribution is really strong (not many wallets with +1% holdings) along with the fact founders are incentivised to increase price for unlocks and low dilution of new coins.

The fact we’ve seen avici almost reach 1:1 mcap with the platform has demonstrated that launchpads are no longer the primary bid for strong eco’s and we’re finally seeing apps starting to meaningful reprice.

If you’re a longer term believer in crypto’s success and the app thesis. Seeing small nuances like avici decoupling from metadaos mcap is extremely significant. For as long as crypto’s existed, it’s always been the infra play. Teams are still trying to spin up useless chains and run the monad playbook to extract mid 9 figs. So when you have apps or products starting to reprice and decouple from their infra, it’s very early signs that our industry is evolving and the path forward for legitimate products is starting to look much brighter.

Ever since Trump coin, the door has been closing and doing so quite rapidly. The only reason the door will open again (alt szn) is if we see traders believe in the product and believe that there’s asymmetric upside to tokens as speculation increases on the fact that these companies are on par if not better than those in web2 which are valued significantly higher.

The premium will eventually close as more people catch on and I think we see a convergence of onchain/perp stocks, real products and revenue/equity flywheels. This will be super charged by the stablecoin thesis with the fed using it as a means of countering inflation. This isn’t going to happen overnight but it’s the northern star you should be monitoring quite closely because when it aligns, it could be one of the largest and most aggressive narratives we’ve seen in crypto’s lifetime.

Pokmeon and real world collectibles have been getting a small bid due to kabuto king. Once again, this narrative doesn’t interest me at all because at some point it’s just NFT’s 2.0 but on a micro scale and attention isn’t strong enough to last more than 2 days.

Not surprised but Monad was a massive let down. Haven’t seen anything exciting come from them yet and even their memes couldn’t break 10 mil which is pretty pathetic for a team that’s spent 4 years teasing TGE and waiting for the right moment to launch. With the amount of money they raised you would have thought they’d have at least something, goes to show you can’t buy creativity or innovation. Maybe this is apart of their master plan and I wouldn’t fully write it off, haven’t seen anything of interest yet though.

Where do I see markets tomorrow (majors & onchain)?

Unless something dramatically changes I still believe the ideas I’ve been echoing about 80-85k being the bottom is correct.

We’ve been “catalystless” the past month or so with overhangs like the MSTR premium. This past week and the PA I saw over the weekend feels like the first time we’ve gotten a glimpse at optimism with Vanguard crypto ETF, Microstrategy clearing fud by liquidating $1.3 bil in their stock to cover 2 years of the collateral loans I mentioned a couple posts ago, and most importantly Tether becoming the largest individual holder of Gold other than central banks.

The last point is very overlooked and under appreciated. While the tradfi guys are some of the most sophisticated and well processed analysts in markets overall, they’re still human and are subject to the same emotions as us.

I can have a 10 page thesis written out, understand the tech at every software layer and have direct communication with the founder to see their vision, except if you never have that “lightbulb” moment to realize “oh fuck this is the next big thing”, then your conviction will never been fully unlocked.

From the perspective of tradfi/old money. When you see an asset class that’s worth $3T and there’s a company that’s not even 10% of that becoming the largest individual holder of Gold in the world, I think that’s your “oh fuck” lightbulb moment.

Seeing headlines like this is going to accelerate their efforts in owning the pie and trigger animal spirits as they’re watching the underlying rails of crypto become the highest revenue:employee companies in history (alongside Hyperliquid).

On the shorter time scale I see us moving to 96k on BTC in anticipation for the Dec interest rate cuts. I’d expect a pullback/chop around 4-7 days out, probably a quick move up then back down with positioning for the risk of negative toning/outlook.

Can we trade above 100k? I’m not too sure and haven’t seen anything which would suggest it. However that doesn’t really matter as with previous rallies off the bottom, the move usually doesn’t become apparent until you have hindsight bias. Overall I’m leaning more bullish, except I’m expecting more chop in the 93-100k region unless we get a new catalyst/headline.

I could see Fartcoin moving up to 600-700 mil quite easily from here and in a short time span. If we do see continued strength from it I’d be mostly playing memes as they’ll significantly outperform utility. I’m watching a few plays closely alongside Pump’s PA which I’m quite bullish on as well.

Biggest focus is trading what’s in front of me and not trying to have too much of a forecast. Forecasters have had their ass handed to them the past few months and those who’ve been willing to adapt to new information on the spot have been the very small minority of outperformers.

This post is getting rather long so I’ll wrap it up here. No promises but I should be more consistent now and back to regular schedule.

Had a lot of fun writing this one and felt like it gave a large variety of information, hopefully it makes up for my absence.

Thought I’d share a previous $PUMP thesis I wrote for a trade.

This was written on Nov 27th (7 days ago), while I didn’t profit off the trade due to being stopped out on 10x lev with size, the thesis was quite strong and correct.

It was clear on the initial move back to 90k that Pump was the strongest asset and sitting at oversold levels due to emotional reactions of the fee switch and Alon’s silence. The goal was to wait for a pullback to 88k which ideally would have lined up with 0.00275 on Pump but the capitulation down to 84k whipsawed harder than I expected.

Hindsight I still think it was good positioning and would take it 10/10 times again as it was a 1:12 RR. Perps only makes sense for myself on higher leverage where I believe I can make 1-4x on a short time frame while only risking 10-20% of the position. Otherwise if I’m bullish on mid/longer term direction I’d rather find the most asymmetric onchain/spot play.

Thesis:

Btc to hold underside of 88k level, be aggressive going into rate cuts 2 weeks out, 1 week out start to taper off.

Fartcoin has been the holy grail of risk asset signal, makes a lot of sense its been in a down trend for the last 5 months which has been in line with launchcoin eco, fartcoin topped mid July and launchcoin started its death decent around a similar time.

The reason for fartcoin bottoming was wintermute running out of their option expiry to sell tokens and now it trades purely as a meme with no toxic flow coming into the chart while bouncing off generational support.

I want to see the initial oi candle retraced before entering the pump positioning as it would give better entry and a floor to work from instead of chasing higher since I’m on high leverage.

This was the last time we had consistent runners and overall bullish sentiment and forward outlook onchain.

Fartcoin also lead BTC and onchain overall by bottoming back in march when we had the initial tariff scares. This was almost a one month head start on BTC.

For the past 12 months, you’ll know onchain has always topped and bottomed before btc as the players have become much more sophisticated and surprisingly some of the better trades across all markets as they know money is much easier to pick up off the floor compared to tradfi.

Sentiment is at ATLs for pump, it’s a very reflexive asset based on animal spirits and comms. Alon has been quite for 2 weeks and timed the market perfectly with the descent of BTC, adding additional fear while still continuing the buybacks.

Conditions:

Btc bounces off 88k with aggression going into rate cuts

Fartcoin retraces the OI candle, holds at 0.3

Pump doesn’t make a new low on the LTF (above 0.00272)

Entry at 0.00275, SL tight underneath the 4hr close at 0.00272, TP at 0.0035

Previous two times it bounced off a the same region it took roughly 9 days for it to gain 40-50%

Im expecting btc to move 8% to 95k roughly 4-7 days out from fomc, I’m expecting pump to play catch up by 30-40% on the same move

Have some balls, click the button and stick to thesis

Few things I’m focusing on with trading:

1. Trading what’s in front of me. Look at what has strength, what’s being overlooked and what has the most asymmetric upside. Pivot fast if wrong and don’t get caught believing. Have very clear invalidation levels, you don’t always need to hold onchain bags to 0 and sometimes taking a -50% hit is the best option to free mental capacity and look for new opportunities (something I’ve struggled with as I get very attached to my theses and end up rather being right than making money sometimes).

2. Look for coins with motion and mindshare. You want to be trading coins with higher volume and volatility as I see time rugs being just as detrimental to losses right now. While there’s not a great deal of overt opportunity costs, I still believe rotations are brutal and won’t magically change anytime soon. I have long term positions but from my shorter term onchain trading perspective, you don’t want to be tied up in low volume low volatility coins unless there’s a painstakingly obvious narrative which everyone is overlooking.

3. Stop forecasting other than longer term tech/innovation trends. If 2025 has taught us anything it’s not to forecast and bank off seasonality. If there is growing mindshare for seasonality or time fractals then once you arrive to the beginning of that specific time period you’ll either be approaching the top or already there. There’s a fine line with signals and noise in this regard. Such as a 50 mil runner onchain being a catalyst for a bottom and increased appetite after low activity. But banking on specific time periods or given macro events has been very detrimental to many traders trying to play consensus. Since we’ve been in a downtrend the last month, it’s become obvious that traders sentiments have shifted to multi year pessimistic time horizons (short degeneracy type discussions). If you’re trying to make money onchain or on shorter time frames, this thinking and theses are very negative to having your finger on the pulse and catching the next wave. I love writing long form and trying to see 6 months into the future, however if I’m trying to trade 500k shitters and catch the current narrative, having that overcast of a long term pessimistic thinking will derail your trading abilities and short term money making outlook. Whether people realize it or not, they’re bear holing themselves and sidelining their chances of catching any form of new trend like the next AI szn. Reason why I try to stay in a constant optimistic state no matter market conditions.

Fartcoin proving to be the strongest asset as expected.

Even while we’ve mostly been chopping, it’s slow grinding up and the only appetite for onchain plays are memes.

Utility normally takes more time and confidence to steal mindshare from memes with a backdrop of new headlines in web2.

If we break above the 94-96k resistance both Fartcoin and Pump look ready to rip. I’m confident these will be the fastest horses if we’re to see more upside on BTC over the coming week. Fartcoin running would trigger animal spirits which I believe are being underestimated by most traders.

Important to note that the new runners will do -50% overnight if there’s any chop on BTC or Fartcoin. While they’re currently the most asymmetric upside, they’re still extremely risky and by no means a green light to get loose with risk management. Still mostly in wait and see mode while using small size to refine your edge and potentially catch some 5-10x’s.

There seems to be a consistent resistance at 4 mil for most of these memes as well so tread carefully when approaching that level. Also vamps are out in full swing which is another set of landmines you need to be cautious of.

Other than $WOJAK, $67, and $SPSC some of the more recent runners with mindshare are:

$FRANKLIN (11 mil)

Meme of a kids tv show which gained a ton of traction after Donald Trump Jr reposted the meme on his Instagram. The narrative is quite similar to SPSC which was directly commented on by Chase Hero who’s a co founder of WLFI. SPSC topped at 14 mil and Franklin currently has resistance at 15 mil. Tough to see Franklin lasting as people associated with Trump/WLFI have historically been mostly one and done shills.

$WHITEWHALE (4 mil)

Spawned as a meme of a popular CT perps trader who’s anonymous but strong mindshare with his recent lore from being liquidated in 10/10 plus a long history of trading. Some comparing him as the new Bonkguy, thinks that’s a bit of a stretch though. He’s recently taken over the meme of his own and doing buybacks with the fees to support it and make sure they don’t ruin his name. Quite a lot of usage with the meme itself and it’s very similar to Detective, Rome, Director style meme template but more crypto native. Historically these have never done well, seems to fade out after a few days and price becomes too heavy. Maybe the ct native aspect can give it more legs, not sure.

$PFP (3.5 mil)

Pumpfun Pepe. Quite an organic narrative by being the pepe on pumpfuns page. Doesn’t feel as forced as other memes and embedded into Pump’s product. Both a good and bad as it’s beta to Pump but also limited to external mindshare and quite native. Probably the most unique meme to recently spawn. Fits into the vamp style we’ve seen from Wojak and 67 but with a unique twist by being Pumpfuns Pepe. Good proxy to pump’s longevity and feels more organic than trencher and cupsy as a “mascot” style play.

$KERMIT (3 mil)

Only meme I currently have a small bag of. Based on Kermit the frog and was mostly a reaction to Wojaks success. Feels a little forced except it’s the strongest community I’ve seen so far. Been dm’d by several people which is quite rare and they raid super hard. While I don’t find the meme particularly great, I bought due to the previous reasons and the quality of the meme really isn’t as important as who’s involved and pushing the community atm. R:R isn’t amazing at 3 mil so would wait for entry if you want to gamble.

$NOTHING (2 mil)

Based on you’ll own nothing and be happy. Essentially a beta to Useless, Housecoin and the other several plays in that eco. You’re essentially betting on Shadows motion buying into this. Since Troll fell substantially he doesn’t have the same effect as he use to, although I wouldn’t completely right this off as his memes often go from 1-2 mil to 8 fig runners overnight. Again the narrative isn’t completely fresh and feels a little forced, what matters is how behind the mission other degens are willing to get alongside their main spokesperson.

Something I keep reminding myself while we’re in extremely hard conditions is these are the times that breed the best traders.

I started my trading journey full time around August/September last year (a few months before AI szn). Many people would agree that was some of the hardest conditions we’d seen in a very long time. It was coming off the memecoin frenzy of early in the summer and all that was left was multi walleter inside cabals pump and dumping animal pfps to 500k.

Surviving and building a strong framework in these times taught me a lot about positioning and sizing which was engrained into me super early. While I often didn’t stick to my own framework when we entered AI szn and there was excess money flowing around, when times turned harder again I was able to default back to good habits quite easily.

Needless to say, these times are meant to expose flaws, risk management, beliefs, confidence, research, flow of information to demonstrate why the market reacts the way it does.

Have you noticed how many doomer articles there are talking about the effects of short term dopamine like Tik Tok, gambling, porn/gooning [insert negative habit] from market participants?

An article on why capital is leaving BTC got 1.6 mil views and 2.8k likes.

Feels like every article I read is about why there’s something wrong with xyz. Pessimism feels maxed out.

There’s a saying that the bull market ends when participants want it to end. I think the uptrend starts when the weak give up, emotions take over and they lose sight of the light at the end of the tunnel.

This pessimism reads as quite sloppy without any form of strong thesis to back many of the ideas. The best argument we’ve had to the downfall of “hyper gambling” is that it’s extended for a reasonably long time frame (5 or so years since covid) and this has triggered a urge to return to nostalgic lifestyle habits. Which I definitely feel and agree on, however I believe these two actions can co exist.

Most of these conversations stem from NotWashed’s “Short Degeneracy” article which was very well written and had some good unbiased thoughts. As we know loss of money triggers strong visceral reactions, these discussions have felt like a perfect escape mechanism for those who aren’t willing to confront their mistakes.

Seems evident that people who’ve “failed” are desperate to be right on something and signs of exhaustion are evident in the quality of their thesis. Since they lost everything they want to see everything else crumble. Max pain would be markets going back up without them and the thought of that idea is too painful to process to the point where they ignore signs of a turning tide.

The data points to increased gambling and while I wish it didn’t for the sake of society and views on our own self worth, there’s no signs of slowing down and I can’t particularly see a catalyst that would slow it down. Those rejecting this new idea of gambling/internet finance/magical internet money feels akin to our grandparents buying a iPhone for the first time. If you had a similar experience to myself, my grandmothers iPhone received significantly yelling and forceful taps/punches to it’s screen.

Like my grandmas frustration towards new technology, I struggle to see a world where this decelerates and like mobile phones, financialization is embedded into every aspect of our life.

Everything the U.S gov and institutions are doing and saying points towards the acceleration of crypto, tokenization and digital finance. Time and time again when we’ve been at breaking point with situations like the collapse of Silvergate and even the Bank of Japan almost going under, there’s been bail outs or an inflection point every time.

Technology never takes a step backwards. The games might take new forms but the underlying principle will only have lower friction baked into it.

Daily Trading Journal - December 15th, 2025

How do I feel about markets today (majors & onchain)?

Tbh there hasn’t been much to really write about. I was mostly correct with my previous journal with the fact that I don’t see us breaking upwards to 100k, I thought we’d range slightly higher than we have but its evident there just really isn’t any catalyst which gives fundamental traders a reason to hold with confidence.

Crypto’s always been the volatile asset class which heavily rewards momentum traders. I’m of the opinion that mid/longer term sideways chop is more damaging to native traders ports than large up or down swings.

Reason being is we tend to have a high risk tolerance as this is the only place for younger adults to break into elite wealth status.

So you get a combination of big swingers + poor risk management + low opportunities + most importantly, overly confident in their theses.

Being overly confident in low opportunity environments causes you to wait past invalidation points. You sit there in stale bags waiting for x amount of weeks/months for the tide to turn while your port slow bleeds. Money is anywhere between 10-50x harder to make as opposed to when we’re in metas with strong animal spirits (AI/ICM/Memes).

Eventually a new meta sparks when markets pick up as devs and traders become more creative as they’re essentially trying to convince you to buy their bag based on emerging narratives happening in tech/culture.

Unless you have an extremely high quality thesis or luck, it’s very rare you’ll predict a meta multiple months ahead of time. Because you become so infatuated with your idea of what the next meta will be, you tend to miss the forest for the trees and don’t notice the market evolving.

This is a core reason why you should never full port and always have a healthy amount of stables. Holding stables keeps your mindset more open to evolving narratives and higher chance that you’ll see small nuances/shifts with how participants are reacting to new information/tech.

Being a solo maxi in anything is extremely dangerous. Yes it worked for btc if you entered several years ago but that’s one of, if not the biggest anomaly we’ve seen throughout the history of modern markets.

It’s naive to think you’ll find something as asymmetric that you can confidently allocate large amounts of your port and pray. The asymmetric risk and upside needs to be equivalent to how much you’re willing to allocate. If you’re expecting 100x returns then you shouldn’t need to allocate more than 5% as those chances are extremely low and you’ll 5x your port anyway as an example.

What are the most exciting narratives?

Hype is one of the most important assets to watch as its the only asset in the top 30 which isn’t a Dino coin and represents strength of innovation and how much value is attached to onchain stocks and a crossover of liquidity. They are running into supply issues and also ADL fud recently which seems to be affecting PA a bit.

Hyperliquid never really interested me a ton cause I don’t trade perps too heavily (if I do it’s on CEX’s anyway) and I missed most of the upside. I was a big dydx bull and wrote an deep dive on substack a few years ago. I spent a lot of time trying to chase successful perp DEX’s throughout 2022/2023, except no one was able to keep tight enough spreads while not being smoked by CEX teams finding vulnerabilities with their engines. None of them allowed for significant sized other than dydx as it was being supported by the few large MM’s at the time who were also investors in the protocol.

Miner, Kermit and Nothing the only smaller memes which have held value. I do like the miner meme a lot and it’s one of the most heavily used and closely correlated memes to degens. Also having the artist onboard is a similar situation to the 67 vamp where it become the “official” coin and adds fuel to it. Probably best chance I can see for an organic runner atm. The fact we saw Franklin decline so fast (was kinda expected) just shows the weakness for smaller memes overall. If you’re holding for >24 hours you should be looking for the stonger community coins, not attention (whitewhale/Franklin)

Franklin and SPSC have show the only coins able to break 8 figs is directly shilled by government officials which is a pretty bad state to be in. Flying Ketamine Horse ran to 10 mil except it just felt like another bonk crime coin that was bundled with no legitimate appetite.

Fartcoin is still relatively strong compared to everything else and I think it has a decent chance of going higher once markets eventually break upwards. Pump is weaker than I expected, think this stems from the weakness in smaller memes, Alon silent and no utility coins performing. I’m not too deep in the fee mechanism rabbit hole but smarter people I follow believe fees eventually trend to zero on par with CEX offerings.

GODL is also an interesting token as it becomes the first launchpad to allow anyone to mine and launch a token on a bonding curve before migrating liquidity to meteora. There’s been a lot of debates by the research crowd the past 1-2 years whether proof of work or proof of stake has been the most effective method for network efforts and fees.

Be very greedy with entires, you’ll most likely get them. Don’t over allocate but if there is coins you really like then I think it’s worth taking small stabs and holding, especially if we retest the mid 80’s on BTC over the next week or so.

Keep stables for when new shiny objects and games emerge. They will come back eventually and they’ll be the most asymmetric when they do.

As I’ve been echoing, trade what’s in front of you and don’t get too far sighted. Until proven otherwise you need to be risk adverse and any onchain trading should be for the sake of refining edge and staying sharp, not swinging for the fences and trying to make hero trades.

How do I feel about markets tomorrow (majors & onchain)?

Not a sexy answer but there’s really not much to do besides sit on hands and wait.

I’ve been through enough chop periods over the years to realize how devastating they can be. These periods test who’ve done the mindset work to develop extreme patience while not fully tapping out (cockroach mode). This is a skillset I’ve developed quite well and why I talk about having external habits and lifestyle away from crypto so you don’t go insane waiting for markets. Also why I think every traders goal should be to working towards 2 years of living expenses so you don’t feel rushed into making poor trades/decisions in low opportunity environments.

I’d love to be able to lock in and put significant time into onchain but it really doesn’t reward it right now. Those who do stay active in these chop periods are the ones who catch majority of the swing for when we do return though.

While markets are only getting more advanced, it’s easy to feel a sense of doomerism as most of the free money on the floor disappears from vaporware speculation and pricing becomes more efficient and realistic. Even still, I’ll sound like a broken record and will continue to be extremely optimistic on cryptos future. I do think we’ll eventually get some form of alt szn when we see a true convergence of businesses and migrations of onchain stocks. It won’t be a 2021 style run as speculation will always have more upside than real products, however when the world realizes how efficient crypto’s rails are and enough businesses onboard, there will be a reflexive flywheel which will cause new money to flow back in and most importantly, not just through ETFs with BTC and ETH but trickle down effects to smaller companies/tokens which we haven’t seen in a long time.

MetaDAO, Launchoin and Street/ERC-S are demonstrating high appetite for this ideology, all it takes is the right formula, businesses and animals spirits to ignite legitimacy and trust in capital allocation.

As for macro I haven’t been too tuned in nor have a strong take on where we’re heading over the next month. Since crypto is quite decorrelated from stocks, I’m more interested in looking for catalyst which will spark confidence in BTC and onchain.

Right now it doesn’t seem to matter as strongly for what the macro environment is doing. If macro turns bearish and we continue to have minimal catalyst for BTC, it feels like we’ll continue lower comparatively to stocks in the short term. I don’t see us going down too much further though as the idea of a 70k BTC sounds like too free of a trade if you’re a sized individual or entity. For myself the idea of BTC hitting 150k within the next 2 years seems almost guaranteed unless we go into a WW3 type setting. Yes stocks have been performing extremely well, however there’s many funds/HNW individuals who are willing to sit on a near infinite sized trade for a 2x over a 1-2 year period.

I don’t see a reason yet why we’d leave the current range we’re in. PA is very dependent on what Trump and co say on markets and their views/policies to crypto. Until we get more news in that regard I’m going to keep the mindset that we’ll chop. I’ll continue to look for signals which would send us either direction, although it’s much safer to be overly cautious and not to get too bull/bear pilled until we have strong confirmation of direction.

Dollars here are worth significantly more and if you chop yourself up before the next meta you’ll miss where all the money is made. We went sideways for 7-8 months in 2024, the final two months of that chop was some of the grimmest conditions onchain had seen. Which is what led to such asymmetric returns in AI szn since believers confidence was so shattered and had to consistently rebuy higher, forcing traders into holders.

The longer we chop, the more asymmetric the new meta becomes as majority of participants tap out and fall for the “suckers rally” belief. Surviving isn’t easy and survivorship bias is very apparent in KOLs who like to flex how well they’ve done and shit on everyone else.

If a few trades went against me then maybe I wouldn’t still be writing and forced into a job. However, you always need to remain optimistic and looking for the finer details. Luck can be increased and manifested through actions and especially discipline to show up everyday.

Apologies if this wasn’t super alpha packed. In these times voicing sensible decisions and mindsets feels much more important to your longevity than what price BTC will be in 5 days from now. Never fully tap out unless it’s a purposeful break, still worth paying attention as spots will continue showing up for the hungry.

If you’ve made a reasonable amount of money from crypto, remember to buy loved ones and yourself something nice for Christmas. Life’s much better spent enjoying your money, health and not being frugile.

Make the most of silly season and time with friends/family over the next few weeks.

HIV positive tweet

This might sound weird but I’m probably the biggest reader of my own journal.

I’m quite good at constructing a large variety of ideas and pattern recognition + intuition in a short time span. Once I do I’ll spend a significant amount of time rereading what I’ve written and sitting with the thoughts.

Say a write up takes me 30 minutes. I’ll typically use around 30-60 minutes where I’ll let the ideas sit, ponder, maybe do some light scrolling/reading and then come back to the ideas to see if I can extrapolate or make them better.

My first drafts on average are very sound and don’t need too edit much typically. It’s more so for the fact of letting what I’ve written and how I’ve constructed the sequence of ideas marinate into my brain.

Why did I write it? What sparked these ideas? Am I expanding/learning something new or am I repeating ideas I’ve previously written? Am I emotional tilted right now?

While it’s difficult not to overlap thoughts, I attempt to find new angles of thinking or perspective for how mindset, frameworks, psychological factors etc might intertwine with each other.

At its core this is where I think my biggest edge lies. It’s having the curiosity and attention to detail to look at completely non correspondent fields and draw similarities or connections with one another.

I was speaking with a friend the other day who was struggling with finding topics that interested him and having a direction towards business ideas. As many of you know I’m massive on understanding what creates curiosity within your own personality as it’s the core emotion to extrapolating on your current knowledge base and expanding overall skillset within trading/business endeavours.

When I’m burnt out from markets and trying to get my spark back to actively trade, my biggest focus is increasing my curiosity. I tend to do this through continuous reading and mostly niche articles.

One might be on quantum computing, the effects of geopolitical tensions on seed grains and how icebergs form. Then I’ll ask myself: is there any correlation here? A common denominator? Impacts towards other industries/sectors? Is it improving or worsening? What am I surprised by?

Maybe you answer no or don’t have an answer at all for all of these, that’s fine. This is a stimulus exercise.

When we’re stuck on certain ideas (losing money), we’re very closed minded. It’s extremely hard to break the day to day thoughts patterns such as what you could of been able to buy with the recent trading losses you’ve just experienced.

Reading new material, allowing new thought patterns and understanding how much opportunity is out there in the world is what you’re aiming to achieve. Not only does this serve as a distraction from your constant negative looping thoughts but a rewiring of your brain to realize that your recent experiences is merely a tiny dot among thousands of results.

Which is why when I’ll make a new post, I’ll sit there throughout the day and reread it dozens of times. I’m essentially trying to rewire my brain as I treat this journal just as much for myself as I do for external readers. Everything I write is meant for myself to upgrade my way of thinking and constantly putting in repetitions to not fall into bad habits/thinking.

I still struggle a lot with managing my own emotions and watching life changing money flash in my face everyday. When I’m not frequently writing, those emotions become even harder to manage and turn to an echo chamber of spiralling thoughts with no substance.

Writing with the intent to constantly improve and rereading my own work dozens of times has been the best counter to this. Without it, I think I’d struggle to show up and manage a high quality of life and work ethic to an industry which is so dopamine depriving.

If you do journal, don’t just write for the sake of writing. Reread, ponder and ask abstract questions for how you can extrapolate on ideas or draw new connections.

Making money is a result of removing limiting beliefs. Find the most efficient way to get there.

Something unexpected you’ll run into as you scale your portfolio is how you construct it based on certain milestones.

You have all these ideologies of what your portfolio will look like when you eventually reach 7 figs, which end up being very different to what your pre conceived ideas and emotions are while sitting at 5 figs.

There’s a large mismatch with how you envisioned it and what the reality of the situation is once you’re there.

Nothing can properly prepare you for being confronted with large numbers, especially in a short time span. I think that’s also why we see such significant round trips in this space without many keeping their gains.

Firstly, you need to be retarded enough to hold through multiples which would make the average persons brain explode. Then do a 180 when you notice subtle shifts of weakness in your bags or reduced mindshare, momentum and catalysts to uphold price.

Because of how emotionally stimulating reaching these milestones are, you lose all sense of logic.

Suddenly a 2x from your current position is a second house, a Ferrari, the ability to not have to work for 10 years. Going from nothing into the ability to have it all change based off a few more green candles is what rips your framework apart.

Which is why it’s so important to have your allocations in stables, majors and alts written and followed to a tea, along with how you scale out of positions based on their mcap/price and volatility.

This is why you’ll typically see people hand back their large gains when initially finding success and can often take several attempts before they become disciplined enough to stick to their framework.

Paper trading or trading with low size will never be a true replacement for the real thing. Yes it can sharpen execution and I do recommend and partake in it, but there’s no simulation for having your balls on the table and getting 2 hours sleep every night because you can’t stop checking your position.

Overtime if you do it right, the processes you put in place should continuously upgrade your quality of life, mindset towards money and faith in your own abilities.

The big wins will always affect you to some degree, even if you do it for decades, although by that point if you’re still trading, it should be like riding a bike where the subconscious and rules you’ve set do all the work.