Bitcoin Intelligence Report 15 is Released
This edition of the Bitcoin Intelligence Report evaluates the risks in Bitcoin’s short-term setup amid historic profitability levels and highlights the important price levels. Over 99% of the supply was in profit at $110K making the rally unsustainable. The structural support zones at $104K, $95K, and $83K are now key. Long-term holders are gradually exiting, while short-term profit-taking accelerates. In our macro segment, we review CPI data that surprised to the downside, reinforcing the disinflation trend and raising the odds of Fed cuts. The market awaits renewed spot demand to absorb profits and sustain the rally into H2 2025.
Premium Access: https://account.21stcapital.com/blog/above-historic-norms-fragile-gains-waiting-for-fuel
This edition of the Bitcoin Intelligence Report evaluates the risks in Bitcoin’s short-term setup amid historic profitability levels and highlights the important price levels. Over 99% of the supply was in profit at $110K making the rally unsustainable. The structural support zones at $104K, $95K, and $83K are now key. Long-term holders are gradually exiting, while short-term profit-taking accelerates. In our macro segment, we review CPI data that surprised to the downside, reinforcing the disinflation trend and raising the odds of Fed cuts. The market awaits renewed spot demand to absorb profits and sustain the rally into H2 2025.
Premium Access: https://account.21stcapital.com/blog/above-historic-norms-fragile-gains-waiting-for-fuel
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FOMC June 2025: Everything You Need to Know (Full Recap in 12 Minutes)
📊 June 2025 FOMC Meeting Recap – Top 10 Takeaways
In this video, we break down the latest Federal Reserve decision into 10 key points. From the interest rate pause to updated inflation and unemployment forecasts, here’s what you need to know.
Access our…
In this video, we break down the latest Federal Reserve decision into 10 key points. From the interest rate pause to updated inflation and unemployment forecasts, here’s what you need to know.
Access our…
A piece of our track record. On May 19, we wrote: "For now, optimism reigns, but we anticipate a few weeks of weakness before the next leg."
A quick look at our track record should make the value of Bitcoin Intelligence apparent.
The only directional BTC research that also gets it right!
Bitcoin Intelligence Report, May 19: https://bi.21stcapital.com/blog/i-need-to-catch-my-breath
A quick look at our track record should make the value of Bitcoin Intelligence apparent.
The only directional BTC research that also gets it right!
Bitcoin Intelligence Report, May 19: https://bi.21stcapital.com/blog/i-need-to-catch-my-breath
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Bitcoin Intelligence Report 18 is out!
Just emailed to subscribers. And, I think this is our best work so far!
The fundamentals we were looking for are finally here!
We cover the arrival of full-stack stimulus:
- Trump’s push for 1% rates,
- Treasury’s stealth QE through curtailed long-term issuance,
- Aggressive fiscal expansion via the Big Beautiful Bill.
- A stablecoin bill adds structural Treasury demand.
- Onchain, Bitcoin shows resilience at key cost basis levels despite persistent profit-taking.
- Perp markets remain cautious but poised.
- With liquidity expanding, policy aligned, and Bitcoin supply capped, the stage is set for a breakout.
The setup is calling us to lean in!
Access here: https://account.21stcapital.com/blog/full-stack-stimulus
Just emailed to subscribers. And, I think this is our best work so far!
The fundamentals we were looking for are finally here!
We cover the arrival of full-stack stimulus:
- Trump’s push for 1% rates,
- Treasury’s stealth QE through curtailed long-term issuance,
- Aggressive fiscal expansion via the Big Beautiful Bill.
- A stablecoin bill adds structural Treasury demand.
- Onchain, Bitcoin shows resilience at key cost basis levels despite persistent profit-taking.
- Perp markets remain cautious but poised.
- With liquidity expanding, policy aligned, and Bitcoin supply capped, the stage is set for a breakout.
The setup is calling us to lean in!
Access here: https://account.21stcapital.com/blog/full-stack-stimulus
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Bitcoin Intelligence Report 20
Above the Clouds: Post-Rally Outlook
Bitcoin has broken out to new all-time highs, fueled by strong spot demand and institutional inflows. On-chain metrics show momentum is rising, but profit-taking remains moderate, suggesting room for further upside. Valuation models confirm Bitcoin is now in the acceleration zone, with targets as high as $200K. Short-term risk stems from the Treasury’s liquidity drain via the TGA refill, which could create volatility. Still, the long-term thesis remains intact. This is a rally with more to run.
https://bi.21stcapital.com/blogs
Above the Clouds: Post-Rally Outlook
Bitcoin has broken out to new all-time highs, fueled by strong spot demand and institutional inflows. On-chain metrics show momentum is rising, but profit-taking remains moderate, suggesting room for further upside. Valuation models confirm Bitcoin is now in the acceleration zone, with targets as high as $200K. Short-term risk stems from the Treasury’s liquidity drain via the TGA refill, which could create volatility. Still, the long-term thesis remains intact. This is a rally with more to run.
https://bi.21stcapital.com/blogs
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Bitcoin Intelligence Report 21 is Published!
Bitcoin: The Clearest Beneficiary of the New Fiscal Era
This issue maps the unfolding macro and on-chain story behind Bitcoin’s breakout.
Global spending is about to surge, bonds are breaking, and liquidity is migrating to digital assets.
The GENIUS Act marks a regulatory turning point, institutions are devouring coins, and it will only accelerate with the potential unlocking of the $9T retirement market.
Despite new all-time highs, risk models show Bitcoin remains far from overheated.
With the Fed cornered, fiscal firehoses open, and the digital dollar system taking shape, Bitcoin is emerging as the clearest beneficiary of this new regime.
https://bi.21stcapital.com/blogs
Bitcoin: The Clearest Beneficiary of the New Fiscal Era
This issue maps the unfolding macro and on-chain story behind Bitcoin’s breakout.
Global spending is about to surge, bonds are breaking, and liquidity is migrating to digital assets.
The GENIUS Act marks a regulatory turning point, institutions are devouring coins, and it will only accelerate with the potential unlocking of the $9T retirement market.
Despite new all-time highs, risk models show Bitcoin remains far from overheated.
With the Fed cornered, fiscal firehoses open, and the digital dollar system taking shape, Bitcoin is emerging as the clearest beneficiary of this new regime.
https://bi.21stcapital.com/blogs
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Bitcoin Intelligence Report 23 is Published!
Air Gapped: How the Narrative Collapsed in Days
Markets just witnessed one of the sharpest narrative shifts of the cycle.
GDP headlines masked weak underlying growth, payrolls collapsed to the weakest levels since 2020, and consumer spending is slowing.
Truflation data points to cooling inflation, yet Powell refused to cut, leaving the Fed cornered.
Bitcoin dropped into the $112K “Air Gap” before bouncing, but ETF outflows, fading short-term holder profits, and weak new investor liquidity highlight fragility. Still, U.S. fiscal maneuvers and Chinese stimulus confirm liquidity tailwinds remain intact for risk assets.
Subnoscription Link
Air Gapped: How the Narrative Collapsed in Days
Markets just witnessed one of the sharpest narrative shifts of the cycle.
GDP headlines masked weak underlying growth, payrolls collapsed to the weakest levels since 2020, and consumer spending is slowing.
Truflation data points to cooling inflation, yet Powell refused to cut, leaving the Fed cornered.
Bitcoin dropped into the $112K “Air Gap” before bouncing, but ETF outflows, fading short-term holder profits, and weak new investor liquidity highlight fragility. Still, U.S. fiscal maneuvers and Chinese stimulus confirm liquidity tailwinds remain intact for risk assets.
Subnoscription Link
BI Report 26 Published: The Fed Just Caved, Got Any Bitcoin?
The Fed has signaled its first rate cut of 2025, shifting focus from inflation to labor market weakness after significant job revisions and slowing GDP growth. While Powell’s pivot confirms cracks in the economy, Bitcoin remains fragile around the $116k top-buyer cost basis, with leverage-driven rebounds masking weak spot demand. Futures positioning highlights liquidation risk between $111k and $120k, and top buyers remain under pressure. Despite volatility, global liquidity flows and policy shifts continue to favor Bitcoin in the long term.
Subnoscription: https://bi.21stcapital.com
The Fed has signaled its first rate cut of 2025, shifting focus from inflation to labor market weakness after significant job revisions and slowing GDP growth. While Powell’s pivot confirms cracks in the economy, Bitcoin remains fragile around the $116k top-buyer cost basis, with leverage-driven rebounds masking weak spot demand. Futures positioning highlights liquidation risk between $111k and $120k, and top buyers remain under pressure. Despite volatility, global liquidity flows and policy shifts continue to favor Bitcoin in the long term.
Subnoscription: https://bi.21stcapital.com
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BI Report 29 Published: Restored Balance Ahead of the Rate Cut Decision
Inflation data highlights a sticky backdrop for policymakers: PPI remains stable at 2.6% YoY with a negative monthly print, signaling no upstream inflation pressure, while headline CPI accelerated 4.7% annualized and core CPI held at 3.1% YoY, underscoring persistent price stickiness in services and shelter. This suggests tariffs may only create one-off bumps rather than structural inflation, especially as the labor market weakens. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps this week, ... Bitcoin has rebounded from $107k, reclaimed the $113.9k pivot, and advanced into the $116–117k range, driven by short squeezes and futures activity. Resistance clusters at $116–118k remain critical, ...
https://bi.21stcapital.com/blog/restored-balance-ahead-of-the-rate-cut-decision
Inflation data highlights a sticky backdrop for policymakers: PPI remains stable at 2.6% YoY with a negative monthly print, signaling no upstream inflation pressure, while headline CPI accelerated 4.7% annualized and core CPI held at 3.1% YoY, underscoring persistent price stickiness in services and shelter. This suggests tariffs may only create one-off bumps rather than structural inflation, especially as the labor market weakens. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps this week, ... Bitcoin has rebounded from $107k, reclaimed the $113.9k pivot, and advanced into the $116–117k range, driven by short squeezes and futures activity. Resistance clusters at $116–118k remain critical, ...
https://bi.21stcapital.com/blog/restored-balance-ahead-of-the-rate-cut-decision
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We’re excited to announce the release of two new charts this week, which include the cost basis and MVRV metrics for short-term holders and long-term holders.
These are some of the most important metrics that we watch closely as they indicate how much profit or loss exists in the market and, therefore, how much motive exists for selling or buying.
The short-term holder MVRV charts also feature standard deviation bands that have a reliable track record in pinpointing local tops and bottoms. We aim to develop a complete suite of handpicked Bitcoin charts in the coming months.
Access at: https://account.21stcapital.com/sth-mvrv-chart
These are some of the most important metrics that we watch closely as they indicate how much profit or loss exists in the market and, therefore, how much motive exists for selling or buying.
The short-term holder MVRV charts also feature standard deviation bands that have a reliable track record in pinpointing local tops and bottoms. We aim to develop a complete suite of handpicked Bitcoin charts in the coming months.
Access at: https://account.21stcapital.com/sth-mvrv-chart
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BIR 30 Published: Post Rate Cut Uncertainty
Want to understand why Bitcoin just dipped? read the on-chain section. Want to understand where liquidity will go next? read the monetary mechanics section.
https://bitcoinintelligence.substack.com
http://account.21stcapital.com
Want to understand why Bitcoin just dipped? read the on-chain section. Want to understand where liquidity will go next? read the monetary mechanics section.
https://bitcoinintelligence.substack.com
http://account.21stcapital.com
Bitcoin Intelligence Report - Onchain Analysis: Below The Mid-line
This week’s onchain analysis is out. Make sure to read this one as it indicates what is likely to happen after the recent pump from the lows.
Highlight: Bitcoin fell to $109.6k, breaching the short-term holder cost basis at $111.6k. The STH-MVRV ratio at 0.98 signals rising pressure on new investors. Long-side max pain sits near ...
Access full content and the video companion on our website or Substack.
bi.21stcapital.com
BitcoinIntelligence.Substack.com
This week’s onchain analysis is out. Make sure to read this one as it indicates what is likely to happen after the recent pump from the lows.
Highlight: Bitcoin fell to $109.6k, breaching the short-term holder cost basis at $111.6k. The STH-MVRV ratio at 0.98 signals rising pressure on new investors. Long-side max pain sits near ...
Access full content and the video companion on our website or Substack.
bi.21stcapital.com
BitcoinIntelligence.Substack.com