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Blackrock's $IBIT bought $260M of Bitcoin today
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Trump: "On day one, I will fire Gary Gensler."
The crowd goes ecstatic.
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Bitcoin Insights #2 📣

The U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path that will end in the destruction of the currency, rampant inflation, and increased risk of bankruptcy.

In this video, I take a look at the federal budget, its components, and the projected future path.

https://youtu.be/ss-U7rE3Dac
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Heavy sell pressure on the bitcoin ETFs today
Futures capitulation is beginning!!!

Long capitulating and the bias of the market is turning bearish.
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Why are the markets crashing?

The S&P & Dow had their worst day since 2022, and investors are panic selling due to a confluence of three deadly forces crushing hopes for a soft landing.

In this 12-min video, I explain these factors & how I think they will play out.

https://x.com/Sina_21st/status/1820623837404311683
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The job market is teetering on the edge of a cliff.

We have had three months of back-to-back declines in job creation, which, if continued, could trigger a recession.

#Clip
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This is what triggered a global-scale sell-off of every major asset class.

This is how unstable the system is.

Tweet 🔗.
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S&P + 6% Bitcoin > NASDAQ

Analysis: What would happen if you add Bitcoin to an S&P 500 portfolio?

- At 6% BTC you get to the same performance as Nasdaq with less vol
- The more BTC you blend, the better CAGR but also higher vol. The more tolerance for volatility, the more reward in CAGR.
- Bonds and traditional 60-40 are just lower-risk positions on the same vol-return curve.
- Russell has been volatile and low-return: worst!

(analysis period: 2020-01-01 to now)
UPDATE: Volatility-Adjusted Power Law Index

- The chart got a new look & rescaled to 0-100.
- VPLI is at 42 right now, indicating the market is cool, and Bitcoin is undervalued.
- The Power Law fair value at $73K, significantly higher than the current price of $61K.
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1008 institutions have already reported holding Bitcoin ETFs in Q2 in their 13F disclosures.

This compares to 874 institutions in Q1, or a 15% increase.

This is despite the market trading downward in Q2.
This is our Nostr pubkey!

We're now available on Nostr!

Show us some love! 🧡💜

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In Every Recession, Unemployment First Looked Like Just Now!

@TwentyFirstCapital