This is what triggered a global-scale sell-off of every major asset class.

This is how unstable the system is.

Tweet 🔗.

S&P + 6% Bitcoin > NASDAQ

Analysis: What would happen if you add Bitcoin to an S&P 500 portfolio?

- At 6% BTC you get to the same performance as Nasdaq with less vol
- The more BTC you blend, the better CAGR but also higher vol. The more tolerance for volatility, the more reward in CAGR.
- Bonds and traditional 60-40 are just lower-risk positions on the same vol-return curve.
- Russell has been volatile and low-return: worst!

(analysis period: 2020-01-01 to now)

UPDATE: Volatility-Adjusted Power Law Index

- The chart got a new look & rescaled to 0-100.
- VPLI is at 42 right now, indicating the market is cool, and Bitcoin is undervalued.
- The Power Law fair value at $73K, significantly higher than the current price of $61K.

1008 institutions have already reported holding Bitcoin ETFs in Q2 in their 13F disclosures.

This compares to 874 institutions in Q1, or a 15% increase.

This is despite the market trading downward in Q2.

This is our Nostr pubkey!

We're now available on Nostr!

Show us some love! 🧡💜

npub1zxsucpq7g3a9m4dzlgqc69rwc7pra5nz0hsgrnya5wg46nuatj5qus2knw

In Every Recession, Unemployment First Looked Like Just Now!

@TwentyFirstCapital

Is Mr. 100 for real?

https://x.com/sina_21st/status/1825962704319950872?s=46&t=6I9aEqV-RwcladB-FBo9kg

Futures flips short and then this happens.

Vitalik on DeFi:

the yield comes from borrowers, trading fees, etc

Right, so this worries me. Because it feels like an ouroboros: the value of
crypto tokens is that you can use them to earn yield which is paid for by...
people trading crypto tokens.

The Fed is Finally Cutting the Interest Rate. Is it Bullish for Asset Prices?

In today's video, I'll discuss the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed rate cuts, inflation data, labor market, recession risks, and what the market might do next.

Everything you need to about the Fed actions in 16 minutes.

Check it out!

@TwentyFirstCapital

https://youtu.be/gCeZdgYbt8g

Fred Krueger: I Was A Great Marathoner, Rather Than a Sprinter

Just recorded an incredibly interesting conversation with
Fred Krueger, the co-author of The Bitcoin Book!

He explores his life journey, success secrets, and unique perspectives on Bitcoin.

It will be a series of episodes. The first part to be published soon on our YouTube channel.

Stay tuned!

https://youtu.be/YvD1dB50PaY

@TwentyFirstCapital

Stay tuned for an interview with Giovanni Santostasi, the creator of the Power Law Index

Here's an excerpt of the interview where we talk about Michael Saylor's recent Bitcoin price prediction models.

https://youtu.be/b8WxgPN0L4o

On August 30th, Michael Saylor unveiled a suite of Bitcoin models forecasting its price over the coming decades under bear, base, and bull scenarios.

Giovanni Santostasi and Sina dive into these models, exploring their assumptions and price predictions.

Giovanni is the creator of the Bitcoin Power Law theory, which is a powerful tool for modeling and predicting Bitcoin price.

https://youtu.be/v6QObGxqMCM

@TwentyFirstCapital

Bitcoin Price follows an interesting pattern

What really matters for Bitcoin's price appreciation is its age, not pure calendar time!

The rate of return is proportional to age.

Here I show that Bitcoin goes 15x higher with every 85% increase in age.

After all, Bitcoin's growth is not that volatile.

https://x.com/sina_21st/status/1831492454748713342