MORGAN STANLEY EXPECTS FED TO CUT INTEREST RATES BY 25 BPS EACH IN ALL THREE MEETINGS THIS YEAR VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER
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MORGAN STANLEY EXPECTS FED TO CUT INTEREST RATES IN JANUARY, APRIL AND JULY, BY 25 BPS EACH IN 2026
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BMO: STOCKS OFTEN RISE AFTER FED CUTS
BMO Capital noted that U.S. equities usually gain after the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates. Since 1982, the S&P 500 posted positive returns in 8 of 10 cycles, averaging +10.4% over the following year. Outcomes, however, ranged from –23.9% to +32.1%, depending on whether cuts extended growth or failed to prevent recession.
BMO said today’s backdrop looks more like the positive cases: jobs are still growing, GDP is above trend, and S&P 500 earnings are forecast to rise at a double-digit pace through 2026.
The firm argued that the debate over the size of Fed cuts “misses the point.” Unless the economy breaks, U.S. stocks remain in a bull market—though future gains may be smaller given the strong rally so far.
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BMO Capital noted that U.S. equities usually gain after the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates. Since 1982, the S&P 500 posted positive returns in 8 of 10 cycles, averaging +10.4% over the following year. Outcomes, however, ranged from –23.9% to +32.1%, depending on whether cuts extended growth or failed to prevent recession.
BMO said today’s backdrop looks more like the positive cases: jobs are still growing, GDP is above trend, and S&P 500 earnings are forecast to rise at a double-digit pace through 2026.
The firm argued that the debate over the size of Fed cuts “misses the point.” Unless the economy breaks, U.S. stocks remain in a bull market—though future gains may be smaller given the strong rally so far.
(@WalterBloomberg)
🚨OFFICIALS TO BRIEF ON MANHUNT
State and federal officials will hold a 9 a.m. ET news conference on the search for the suspect in the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. Authorities have released video showing the suspect fleeing the scene.
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State and federal officials will hold a 9 a.m. ET news conference on the search for the suspect in the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. Authorities have released video showing the suspect fleeing the scene.
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🚨🚨 TRUMP SAYS SUSPECT IN KIRK KILLING :"I THINK WE HAVE HIM" -FOX NEWS INTERVIEW
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TRUMP: WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY, WE HAVE THE SUSPECT IN CUSTODY OF CHARLIE KIRK SHOOTING
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TRUMP ON KIRK SHOOTER: MINISTER, FATHER HELPED IN CAPTURE
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FED CUTS COULD PRESSURE DOLLAR
ING’s Chris Turner said Fed rate cuts would likely weaken the dollar by lowering funding costs and driving more hedging against depreciation. Markets see a 93% chance of a 25bp cut on Sept. 17, with 71bps priced by end-2025 and 142bps by end-2026. The DXY index is up 0.1% at 97.669.
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ING’s Chris Turner said Fed rate cuts would likely weaken the dollar by lowering funding costs and driving more hedging against depreciation. Markets see a 93% chance of a 25bp cut on Sept. 17, with 71bps priced by end-2025 and 142bps by end-2026. The DXY index is up 0.1% at 97.669.
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TRUMP: DON'T KNOW IF SUSPECT WAS PART OF BIGGER NETWORK
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🚨SUSPECT IN CHARLIE KIRK KILLING DETAINED
A person is in custody and being questioned over the fatal shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, four sources said. President Trump told Fox News, “I think with a high degree of certainty, we have him.”
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A person is in custody and being questioned over the fatal shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, four sources said. President Trump told Fox News, “I think with a high degree of certainty, we have him.”
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TRUMP: WE'RE GOING TO MEMPHIS WITH NATIONAL GUARD
TRUMP: WE WILL BRING THE MILITARY TOO IF WE NEED IT
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TRUMP: WE WILL BRING THE MILITARY TOO IF WE NEED IT
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