Reflections into Q4

Q3 was an amazing quarter for me in both execution and pnl

caught most of the big rotations and runners, while avoiding significant drawdowns by going defensive at the right times

big win
small win
small loss
big loss (you just have to avoid this)

that said, i have no crystal ball and did not forecast moves in advance, but simply adapted and reacted quick enough

another main theme for me in Q3 was the 'wait and see' approach, whereby my default stance is doing nothing until something pops up

if its not interesting enough, i pay no mind

this helped me to avoid many short-lived narratives, hence drawdowns and fomo

being at peace with missing some upsides, while knowing when enough is enough

also, as mentioned before, i have been reducing my stack consistently while trying to increase risk - pigeon has a good article on this: https://news.1rj.ru/str/cryptomumbles/14743

my onchain portfolio will likely not see ath again, but my networth will

important distinctions

hope to remain level headed and to maintain performance going into Q4

큰 승리
작은 승리
작은 손실
큰 손실

3분기 끝났으므로 분기별로 이렇게 자기 회고하는 것도 괜찮아보이네요.

$ZEC 오르던데 보통 프라이버시 코인 오르면 시장 고점 시그널임.

-> 쓸모 없는 카테고리까지 펌핑이 온다? 이거 진짜거든요.

그래도 관심 있다면

$ZEC 전반적 내러티브 정리.

- 비트코인 정신이 깃들여진 유사한 토크노믹스 (총 공급량 2,100만 개)
- 과거와는 달리, 프라이버시 영역에서 범죄가 일어나는 규모가
줄어들고 건전한 프라이버시 기능이 적절이 활용되고 있음.
- 프라이버시는 관심도가 낮아 실 가치보다 저평가된 카테고리.
- 개인 정보 보호는 인간의 욕구.

https://x.com/sjdedic/status/1973360567210443117

https://x.com/0xMert_/status/1973335855977680957

https://x.com/grayscale/status/1973403095825785047

https://x.com/arjunkhemani/status/1964692156959830039

읽어보셔도 될듯요.

https://whales.market/premarket/YB

$YB, 사전 거래 볼륨도 $1m 정도로 유의미하고 세일가 $0.2의 4.5배~ 거래 중.

세일 참여자분들 축하드립니다. ㄷㄷ

Looks like Binance is testing withdrawals for spot listing of $ASTER

https://bscscan.com/token/0x000Ae314E2A2172a039B26378814C252734f556A?a=0xe2fc31f816a9b94326492132018c3aecc4a93ae1

진짜 개박는 코인은 퍼드도 없다

📌 Buy Orders

* Avail – $0.06
* Aztec
* Caldera – $0.12
* Polyhedra – 70% discount
* Satlayer – 70% discount
* Sign – 70% discount
* Solayer – $0.12 (~70% discount)
* Space & Time – $0.018 (70% discount)
* WCT – $0.06 (70% discount)
* Zircuit – $0.08

💰 Sizes: up to 500k each, with some flexibility up to $1M.

👉 DM @MursuvaLas

의문의 OTC Buy. 무슨 목적일까.

싸게 사는거긴 함.

모멘텀 TVL 곧 400M

https://defillama.com/protocol/momentum?tvl=true

이거 왜 10배 올라있지;; ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ

#meme

https://whales.market/premarket/2z

현재 더블제로($2z)는 유의미한 거래량으로 FDV 3.8B에 사전 거래되고 있습니다. (거래량이 제일 많은 구간은 $0.3~, FDV 3B)

'업비트 상장' 기대감이 반영된 것 아닌가.

더블제로로 리스크 감수를 줄이고, 돈버는방법정리

1. 메테오라풀설정

정말 잘 모르는 분야이지만, 이번에 잘하는 사람들보면서 많이 배웠는데
낮은 가격에라도, 메테오라 풀 설정 잘해놓고, 체결시켰으면 괜찮았던것 같음

2. 하리<>binance 갭
7~9%정도 갭이 3분동안 유지되었고, 오더북도 빵빵레후 였음
그이후에, 3~4%갭이 15분동안 꽤 오래유지되어서, 잡기에 정말괜찮았음
indexprice도 바이낸스 현물추종인거 확인후, 진입했음

하리공지방 텔레그램이, 트위터알림보다 30초정도 빨리와서, 꼭 알림켜두는거 추천

3. backpack spot출금따리
backpack spot가격이 dex보다 15%정도 낮아서, 선물헷지후, 따리했어도 괜찮았음

같이 플레이한 푸체후기

Late cycle sign

An influx of money bidding on ICOs. One latecycle behavior is the intense focus and investment in new tokens, similar to 2018 and, in a different form, VC funding in 2021.

ICOs were also wild in 2021; I recall my $500 IMX allocation turning into $20k just 40 days after the ICO, or my Biconomy allocation, where $500 became $80k (although the token was locked).

These days, we see the same behavior with Limitless getting 110x oversubscribed bids and Yieldbase over 100x for an ICO. Honestly, their terms aren’t great—yes, they’re cheap, but not that cheap. You can buy other prediction market projects on Base, like Predi, at a $10M FDV. For me This signals late-cycle ICO behavior.

I tried bidding on YB and Limitless but have little confidence in getting a good allocation, so it’s not worth tying up capital.

The only exciting opportunities right now are short- to mid-term plays on liquid tokens for a solid 2-3x upside, taking profits strictly, as we’ve seen what happened with XPL, Apex, and others. (I see Aster as a trade due to CZ’s focus on BSC.)