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The Self‑Inflicted Decline of the Ancient Hellenes

Polybius (ca. 200–120 BCE) was a Hellenic historian who not only described Rome’s expansion but also analyzed the social causes behind the decline of the polis.

In his Histories he clearly distinguishes between events whose origins lie in obscurity - natural disasters 🌪, epidemics 🦠, climatic extremes 🌡 - and those whose causes are plain to see. Only in the former cases, Polybius argued, is it legitimate to invoke the gods or fate. Where human behavior is the cause, responsibility must be assigned to humans:

“In this field one need not ask the gods how we may be freed from such an evil; for every man in the world will tell you that it happens through the men themselves, when they change their aims—or, if that is not possible, through laws for the preservation of children 👶.”

One example he describes with particular sharpness is the decline in births among the Hellenes of his time. Although no great wars raged and no plagues devastated the land, the cities emptied. Fields lay untilled, houses abandoned, the political strength of the poleis waned.

Polybius stressed that this affected almost all Hellenic states—especially the poleis of the Peloponnese such as Sparta, Corinth, and the Achaean League. Even Athens lost its political significance, though it still shone culturally. The cause, he insisted, was not divine wrath but a profound change in morals.

Men, he wrote, were “seduced by splendor, wealth, and idleness” 💰. They married late or not at all, and when they had children, they limited themselves to one or two—not out of necessity, but calculation. They wished to leave wealth to their heirs and raise them in luxury rather than rear many children. Yet this supposed prudence proved disastrous: if one of the few sons died through illness or war, the household was left without heirs. Like “scattered swarms of bees,” the cities gradually lost their vitality.

Polybius’ analysis is strikingly modern. He describes a demographic crisis as the result of consumerism and individualism. Not external enemies but inner priorities weakened society. For him it was clear: sacrifices, oracles, prayers would not help. The remedy lay in human hands—through a change of values or through laws that encouraged the preservation of children.

👥 In this way Polybius formulated an early theory of social responsibility: history is not the plaything of the gods but the result of human decisions. He urged recognition of causes and the taking of counter‑measures, rather than retreating into fatalism.

📣 His diagnosis was also a moral appeal. Decline came “swiftly and unnoticed” - not by a sudden blow, but through creeping habits. Luxury, convenience, and fixation on status led to a gradual erosion that only became visible once the cities were already depopulated.

Polybius’ words echoed far beyond his own time. Later Roman authors such as Sallust and Tacitus took up similar themes: the link between moral decay, falling birthrates, and political weakness. And in modern times his thought has often been revisited - that the strength of a community depends not only on armies or walls, but on the willingness of its citizens to take responsibility for the future.

📜 You can explore the original text here.

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