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Forwarded from Vampire Six (Armchair Warlord)

Ukraine is probably out of Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles, or at least very close to out of them. They've been firing them for months now with very modest success thanks to formidable Russian countermeasures, frequently expending large numbers of missiles for limited results. Moreover they did not get a lot of them to begin with, because there were a very limited amount to give between British and French war stocks.

The plot thickens when we consider the Russian strike on the Starokonstantinov military airfield in Khmelnitsky on the night of August 5th, where Ukraine's small fleet of Su-24s modified to carry Western cruise missiles was based. Despite some online criticism of the strike as ineffective, massive secondary explosions were reported at the time and satellite photos of the aftermath show an enormous crater where the base's ammunition storage bunkers once sat. I believe that it actually hit exactly what it was aimed at: Ukraine's storage depot for its Storm Shadow missiles, placed exactly where they would logically be stored for most convenient use.

Ukraine conducted a large (and largely ineffectual) Storm Shadow strike on the road bridges connecting Crimea and Kherson on August 6th, but this is not inconsistent with the loss of the depot. The Ukrainians had warning of an incoming strike for hours beforehand and have made a practice of launching their aircraft during such attacks to avoid their destruction on the ground. The missiles fired on the 6th had likely been uploaded onto aircraft prior to the attack and were thus saved.

Now for the real tell - the next day, August 7th, the German Bundestag reversed their longstanding position on transferring Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine and authorized the move. This strongly suggests to me that this was done on an emergency basis as the Storm Shadows supplied earlier had been almost entirely destroyed by interdiction strikes such as that in Khmelnitsky or expended in combat. There are very few coincidences in war, and Germany authorizing the transfer of their cruise missiles a matter of hours after the Russians destroyed an ammunition depot at a Ukrainian base hosting cruise missile-equipped strike aircraft is an enormous red flag - presumably, appropriate pressure was brought to bear on the Germans after this disaster and they fell in line as they always have.

Let's actually look at the timeline here:

May 11, 2023 - Britain announces donation, British-model missiles begin to be used in combat
July 11, 2023 - France announces donation, French-model missiles immediately appear on the battlefield
August 5th, 2023 - Russian missile strike on Khmelnitsky
August 6th, 2023 - Ukrainian missile strike on Chongar
August 7th, 2023 - Germany approves transferring Taurus missiles to Ukraine

Expect to see Taurus missiles appear in Ukraine in the immediate future and the Storm Shadow rapidly disappear from the headlines. Unless the Germans modify their missiles to comply with the Missile Technology Control Regime's 300km range limit this will be a significant development - the unmodified Taurus has a 500km range that will bring the Kerch Bridge firmly into missile range from Ukrainian-held territory, and the Germans have hundreds of missiles to transfer. One German lawmaker suggested as many as 450. Although attacks on the Kerch Bridge are largely annoyances in military terms, they make for potent propaganda and as such the Russians would be wise to reinforce air defenses in the area.

42 viewsHans G. Schantz, 22:20