✅ JD Vance was right: Europe needs Red Sea a lot more than America

💬 In a group chat leaked to media on US Yemen attack plans, the VP expressed disdain at the prospect of “bailing Europe out again” using American military power.

❓Who really stands to gain spending US blood and treasure to “restore freedom of navigation” in the Red Sea?

⛴ Shipping

🔴 Among the big five global shipping giants that stopped transit through the Red Sea, four are European (MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd), one Chinese (COSCO), and none American.

🔴 US shippers like Matson, APL, SeaLand, Crowley and TOTE operate Pacific and Americas routes and were largely unaffected by Houthi activities.

🏭Retail & Manufacturing

🔴 The price of shipping a container from Asia to the US jumped 160-220% from 2023-2024. Shipping the same container from Asia to the Mediterranean shot up 285%, and 365%+ to Northern Europe, a disaster for consumers and producers alike.

For example, while 25-30% of US Asia-sourced automotive parts were shipped via the Red Sea before the crisis, in Europe it was 70%, causing factory shutdowns in Belgium (Volvo) and Germany (Tesla), but none in the US.

Same story in other sectors, with the Red Sea once transiting:

🔴20-30% of Asia-sourced household appliances going to the US vs 30-40% to Europe

🔴20-25% vs 30-40% of electronics

🔴20-30% vs 25-35% of industrial machinery, tools, construction equipment

🔴20-30% vs 30-40% of semiconductors, circuits, etc

⚡️Energy

🔴 Only 2-2.5% of US oil needs shipped through the Red Sea before the crisis. And Europe? 80-90% of its 30-35% MENA-sourced imports.

🔴 95% of US natural gas needs are met domestically, with Qatar selling 1% of the remainder, having to reroute exports away from the Red Sea. And Europe? 20% of its LNG imports Gulf-sourced, 100% going through the Red Sea before the crisis.

With crises in the Mideast and Ukraine, US oil exports to Europe jumped from 1.8-2.2M bpd in 2023-2024, while LNG exports grew from 1.07-1.2T cf, and US market share up from 35-45%.

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🇷🇺🇺🇦🇺🇸⚡️The Kremlin has published a statement following consultations with the United States in Riyadh.

📍In accordance with the agreement between the presidents of Russia and the United States, the Russian and American sides agreed to ensure the implementation of the "Black Sea Initiative", which includes ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea, the non-use of force and the prevention of the use of commercial vessels for military purposes while organizing appropriate control measures through the inspection of such vessels.

📍The United States will help restore access for Russian agricultural and fertilizer exports to the world market and reduce the cost of marine insurance,
as well as expanding access to ports and payment systems to conduct such transactions.

Note:
Paragraphs 1 and 2 shall come into force after:

– Lifting sanctions restrictions from Rosselkhozbank and other financial organizations involved in ensuring operations on international trade in food products (including fish products) and fertilizers, connecting them to SWIFT, opening the necessary correspondent accounts;

– Removal of restrictions on the implementation of trade finance transactions;

– Lifting sanctions restrictions on companies producing and exporting food (including fish products) and fertilizers, as well as lifting restrictions on the work of insurance companies with food cargo (including fish products) and fertilizers;

– Lifting restrictions on servicing ships in ports and sanctions against ships under the Russian flag involved in the trade of food products (including fish products) and fertilizers;

– Lifting restrictions on the supply of agricultural machinery to the Russian Federation, as well as other goods used in the production of food (including fish products) and fertilizers.

📍Russia and the United States agreed to develop measures to implement the agreements between the presidents of the two countries on a ban on strikes on energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine for a period of 30 days, starting March 18, 2025, with the possibility of extending and withdrawing from the agreement in the event of non-compliance by one of the parties.

📍Russia and the United States welcome good offices from third countries aimed at supporting the implementation of agreements in the energy and maritime sectors.

📍Russia and the United States will continue to work to achieve a strong and lasting peace.