🇷🇺🛢 Anton Gerashchenko on X: I've decided to translate for you a post from the Russian Telegram channel "Nezygar" about the current state of Russian refineries and fuel market:

"Tensions in Russia's fuel market are rising: in Primorye, there are kilometer-long queues at gas stations, and wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have hit record highs. Officially, the reasons are no longer hidden - refineries are shutting down after Ukrainian strikes. During peak summer days, up to 14% of processing capacity was idle.

In 2025, the tactics of Ukrainian strikes have changed. Previously, they were one-time: a unit would be damaged, the plant would reduce output, but recover within a few weeks. Now, attacks are carried out in series and repeated on the same facilities - Ryazan, Novokuibyshevsk, Syzran, Volgograd, Afipsky refineries. This prevents the restoration of primary processing and hydrocracking and catalytic cracking units. For example, after a series of attacks, Ryazan Refinery (5% of Russia's capacity) has half its processing halted, while Novokuibyshevsk Refinery (3%) has its primary processing damaged. The largest refinery in southern Russia, Volgograd's Lukoil, as well as the Samara and Syzran refineries, have stopped receiving crude.

Ukraine is widely using drones with a range of 1,000-1,500 km (such as the AQ-400 produced by FirePoint), capable of reaching the Volga region. Simultaneously, drones and maritime drones are targeting export terminals - attacks on Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk have temporarily halted oil product shipments. 'Madyar' reported hitting the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies oil from Russia to its historical homeland.

...

The choice of refineries as targets is explained by their technological vulnerability. Modern Russian refineries were built using equipment from Shell, Axens, UOP, and Haldor Topsoe - hydrocracking, catalytic reforming, isomerization, and Euro-5 component production. After 2022, deliveries of equipment, software, and catalysts ceased. Catalysts are consumables, replaced every 1-3 years; without Western supplies, Russia relies on old stock or Chinese analogs with inferior performance. Hydroprocessing reactors and compressors are manufactured in only a few countries, with delivery times up to a year.

China can cover only part of the deficit: pumps, heat exchangers, and simple catalysts. However, for complex processes, its technology lags, and replacing Western components with Chinese ones requires restructuring the entire refinery unit. As a result, every Ukrainian strike on a hydrocracking or reforming unit leads to months of downtime.

The map of Russian refineries reveals a key strategic problem: the main processing capacities are concentrated in the European part of the country, while fuel consumption is rising in the Far East. Fuel logistics chains to eastern regions span thousands of kilometers, creating additional costs and risks. Kilometer-long queues in Primorye are a direct consequence of this imbalance between western production and eastern consumption. Large refineries - from Kirishi to Volgograd - are within reach of Ukrainian drones. The Flamingo missile, if its specifications are confirmed, can reach Russia's largest refinery in Omsk.

As the range increases, facilities previously considered out of reach are now threatened, creating a scale problem for air defense - protecting all refineries across the territory, from Kaliningrad to the Far East, is practically impossible.

Consequently, Russia's oil and gas industry, once a source of economic strength, has become a vulnerable spot."

🔗 Anton Gerashchenko

♀️ Armies have had to greatly reduce training requirements after inducting women, because marching too much breaks their pelvises.

11.2% of a 1991 Australian Army female cohort broke their pelvises on the previous standards.

🔗 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10332180/

🇫🇷 The Fifth Republic established by Charles de Gaulle is looking increasingly ungovernable. — POLITICO

French politics are so paralyzed that the resignation of President Emmanuel Macron — an idea once only whispered in the corridors of power — is now being openly debated.

But while Macron’s departure would be an earthquake on the European diplomatic stage, there’s increasing doubt it would fix the gridlock stalling the Fifth Republic.

France’s problems appear to be deeper.

Macron is already scouting around for his fifth prime minister in less than two years, in the expectation that François Bayrou will be ousted on Monday over his unpopular measures to slash the country’s eye-watering budget deficit.

But would a new prime ministerial nominee from Macron be able to force through the billions of euros in budget tightening that the country needs to avoid a debt crisis? And would a new snap election create a workable majority? Neither outcome seems likely. And even if Macron were to resign, his successor would almost certainly face the same obstacles.

The legislature is deadlocked, budget talks are flatlining, and murmurs of social unrest are growing louder. Financial markets are jumpy, and Bayrou himself is warning that Paris faces a Greek-style scenario unless it reins in spending.

Against that backdrop, far-right National Rally President Jordan Bardella and far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose parties together account for a third of seats in the National Assembly, are openly calling for the president to go.

The broader conversation about his departure is no longer outlandish and now includes reputable political commentators and some figures from the center right.

“We’re hearing this even from voices close to the Macron camp,” said Mathieu Gallard, a pollster at Ipsos France. “The discomfort is real.”

Macron is still seen as extremely unlikely to throw in the towel, not least because his premature exit — a presidential election isn’t due until 2027 — would do nothing to resolve the mess.

Surveys show a new legislative election in the coming weeks would most likely yield another hung parliament with a few more seats for Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.

@CIG_telegram