# Analysis
On ethnic minorities and the necessity of a Democratic Nation Project
After a month since the offensive of HTS started, we have now better ground to evaluate what is going on in Syria. The unexpected collapse of al-Assad regime was followed by celebrations and hopefull dreams of an easy and bloodless transition in Syria. But this is something we only see in movies and history books. In real life most revolutions are followed by periods of instability and warlordism, where different factions struggle to impose their hegemony.
The recent protests of Christians, as well as the uprisings of Alawites, are complex events that are getting polarized in social networks. These two social groups had certain priviledges during the regime of al-Assad, priviledges that were partly established with the old French colonial rule, favoring them over sunni arabs or kurds. But those priviledges are also limited to some higher classes, and not all members of those groups were aligned with the regime.
Those uprisings are not simply "uncontrolled regime/Iran/Israel elements/agents" as HTS like to calim, it is also a reaction to the attacks of "uncontroled HTS elements", like the fire on the christmas tree in Hama and the dessecration of the grave of an important Alawite scholar. Those attacks are manifestations of ethnic grudges that many sunni arabs may share, but when ethnic simplifications like this are used to call for ethnic cleansing, things can very easily spiral out of control.
Many Alawites and Christians had power positions in the regime, but many sunni arabs too. Kurds know very well what it means to be part of a secondary class, to be at the bottom of the social pyramid. That's why it has been so important for the DAANES to develop respectful and inclusive methods for everyone, allowing autonomy and self-organization to all different social groups. HTS sectarian visions, with islamic fundamentalism as a ground to build a fake national unity, pose serious threats to the diversity of Syria.
The DAANES is already making calls to stop the attacks against Alawite people, to put an end to the sectarian violence, to build the nation under a base of diversity and respect for the other. The call for a "democratic nation project" should be understood in that sense, as part of a wider project for democratic confederalism, questioning old patterns of tribalism, patriarchy and nation-state. It is a call to continue the revolution all around Syria and beyond.
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
On ethnic minorities and the necessity of a Democratic Nation Project
After a month since the offensive of HTS started, we have now better ground to evaluate what is going on in Syria. The unexpected collapse of al-Assad regime was followed by celebrations and hopefull dreams of an easy and bloodless transition in Syria. But this is something we only see in movies and history books. In real life most revolutions are followed by periods of instability and warlordism, where different factions struggle to impose their hegemony.
The recent protests of Christians, as well as the uprisings of Alawites, are complex events that are getting polarized in social networks. These two social groups had certain priviledges during the regime of al-Assad, priviledges that were partly established with the old French colonial rule, favoring them over sunni arabs or kurds. But those priviledges are also limited to some higher classes, and not all members of those groups were aligned with the regime.
Those uprisings are not simply "uncontrolled regime/Iran/Israel elements/agents" as HTS like to calim, it is also a reaction to the attacks of "uncontroled HTS elements", like the fire on the christmas tree in Hama and the dessecration of the grave of an important Alawite scholar. Those attacks are manifestations of ethnic grudges that many sunni arabs may share, but when ethnic simplifications like this are used to call for ethnic cleansing, things can very easily spiral out of control.
Many Alawites and Christians had power positions in the regime, but many sunni arabs too. Kurds know very well what it means to be part of a secondary class, to be at the bottom of the social pyramid. That's why it has been so important for the DAANES to develop respectful and inclusive methods for everyone, allowing autonomy and self-organization to all different social groups. HTS sectarian visions, with islamic fundamentalism as a ground to build a fake national unity, pose serious threats to the diversity of Syria.
The DAANES is already making calls to stop the attacks against Alawite people, to put an end to the sectarian violence, to build the nation under a base of diversity and respect for the other. The call for a "democratic nation project" should be understood in that sense, as part of a wider project for democratic confederalism, questioning old patterns of tribalism, patriarchy and nation-state. It is a call to continue the revolution all around Syria and beyond.
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
Updates 01-02/Jan/2025
“I am here because my conscience could not accept what I saw with my own eyes. When you choose the path, you have to walk it at your own risk. The way is us, and we are the way.” — Cîhan Bilgin
# NES
Clashes in Manbij countryside
Heavy clashes in Manbij countryside continued with intense air support from Turkish army. SDF is holding ground against SNA offensives, destroying some armored vehicles and inflicting heavy loses on SNA troops. SDF shot down a turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone. YPJ destroyed a communication tower.
Damages to Tishreen Dam
Turkish and SNA attacks have left the Tishreen Dam inoperable, with latest figures estimating that at least 413,000 people in Manbij and Kobane area have been deprived of electricity and water for the past 3 weeks. Strikes on the dam have damaged turbines, cut essential cables, caused leakages & resulted in power outages.
Turkish drone strikes
Among other attacks, turkish drones targeted civilian homes in Gire Spi country side. A turkish drone strike in the kurdish controlled area of Aleppo destroyed the only sugar factory in the region.
New US base in Kobane
The US army is building a new base in the city of Kobane. Cement blocks, premade rooms, surveillance cameras and other equipement is being installed.
# Syria
SDF meetings with HTS
Official delegation of SDF command met with HTS command to discuss about the relation of SDF with the new Syrian army being formed. Mazlum Abdi stated that an agreement was not reached but that the negotiations are ongoing. Ahmed al-Sharaa declared "SDF requested to be integrated as an specific corps within the new army, also to determine a percentage of the resources it controls, especially oil, to remain in NE Syria. These demands were rejected by the General Command, but there is a proposal being studied to include elements of the SDF".
HTS delegation to Saudi Arabia
A Syrian official delegation to Saudi Arabia, led by freshly appointed Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaybani, Defense minister Murhaf Abu Qasra and Intelligence chief Anas Khattab, landed in Riyadh, marking their first official trip abroad.
'Joint forces' leave SNA
The "Joint Forces", a coalition of the two main facitons of SNA 'Hamza division' and 'Sultan Suleyman Sha division', announced their withdrawal from the SNA to join the new Syrian Army under the new 'defense ministry'.
Druze demand federalism
The Druze in Suwayda have intercepted an HTS convoy from entering Suwayda, and they were forced to return to Damascus.
Commander of Druze operations: "We will not allow any faction, regardless of the number of its members, to enter Suwaida, and we will demand federalism if we are subjected to any aggression or anything is imposed on us"
New insurgent group?
Statements about a new group calling itself “Syrian Popular Resistance” appeared in Iran and Russian linked media. They vow they will fight HTS in retaliation for the attacks on minorities, calling for a "free Syrian Arab republic" with a sectarian religious language.
# Foreign Policy
Meeting between DEM and MHP
The meeting between the (kurdish) DEM Party's İmralı delegation and MHP leader (far-right) Devlet Bahçeli took place in Turkey. The meeting followed Abdullah Öcalan's recommendation for dialogue with political parties. DEM party said that the meeting went well.
Iran forbids kurdish Organisations
With the start of the new year, Iran issued a new law forbidding "all organisations connected to the PKK" due to a request by Turkey.
This affects among others Free Women Associtation RJAK, Niwêger and Merziye foundations for arts together with the production company of Jin TV. All assets of these organisations have been seized.
US-Syria economic license
Work is underway in US institutions to issue a "temporary" license valid for one year, allowing economic transactions that were previously prohibited under U.S. sanctions on Syria, while sanctions will not be lifted.
“I am here because my conscience could not accept what I saw with my own eyes. When you choose the path, you have to walk it at your own risk. The way is us, and we are the way.” — Cîhan Bilgin
# NES
Clashes in Manbij countryside
Heavy clashes in Manbij countryside continued with intense air support from Turkish army. SDF is holding ground against SNA offensives, destroying some armored vehicles and inflicting heavy loses on SNA troops. SDF shot down a turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone. YPJ destroyed a communication tower.
Damages to Tishreen Dam
Turkish and SNA attacks have left the Tishreen Dam inoperable, with latest figures estimating that at least 413,000 people in Manbij and Kobane area have been deprived of electricity and water for the past 3 weeks. Strikes on the dam have damaged turbines, cut essential cables, caused leakages & resulted in power outages.
Turkish drone strikes
Among other attacks, turkish drones targeted civilian homes in Gire Spi country side. A turkish drone strike in the kurdish controlled area of Aleppo destroyed the only sugar factory in the region.
New US base in Kobane
The US army is building a new base in the city of Kobane. Cement blocks, premade rooms, surveillance cameras and other equipement is being installed.
# Syria
SDF meetings with HTS
Official delegation of SDF command met with HTS command to discuss about the relation of SDF with the new Syrian army being formed. Mazlum Abdi stated that an agreement was not reached but that the negotiations are ongoing. Ahmed al-Sharaa declared "SDF requested to be integrated as an specific corps within the new army, also to determine a percentage of the resources it controls, especially oil, to remain in NE Syria. These demands were rejected by the General Command, but there is a proposal being studied to include elements of the SDF".
HTS delegation to Saudi Arabia
A Syrian official delegation to Saudi Arabia, led by freshly appointed Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaybani, Defense minister Murhaf Abu Qasra and Intelligence chief Anas Khattab, landed in Riyadh, marking their first official trip abroad.
'Joint forces' leave SNA
The "Joint Forces", a coalition of the two main facitons of SNA 'Hamza division' and 'Sultan Suleyman Sha division', announced their withdrawal from the SNA to join the new Syrian Army under the new 'defense ministry'.
Druze demand federalism
The Druze in Suwayda have intercepted an HTS convoy from entering Suwayda, and they were forced to return to Damascus.
Commander of Druze operations: "We will not allow any faction, regardless of the number of its members, to enter Suwaida, and we will demand federalism if we are subjected to any aggression or anything is imposed on us"
New insurgent group?
Statements about a new group calling itself “Syrian Popular Resistance” appeared in Iran and Russian linked media. They vow they will fight HTS in retaliation for the attacks on minorities, calling for a "free Syrian Arab republic" with a sectarian religious language.
# Foreign Policy
Meeting between DEM and MHP
The meeting between the (kurdish) DEM Party's İmralı delegation and MHP leader (far-right) Devlet Bahçeli took place in Turkey. The meeting followed Abdullah Öcalan's recommendation for dialogue with political parties. DEM party said that the meeting went well.
Iran forbids kurdish Organisations
With the start of the new year, Iran issued a new law forbidding "all organisations connected to the PKK" due to a request by Turkey.
This affects among others Free Women Associtation RJAK, Niwêger and Merziye foundations for arts together with the production company of Jin TV. All assets of these organisations have been seized.
US-Syria economic license
Work is underway in US institutions to issue a "temporary" license valid for one year, allowing economic transactions that were previously prohibited under U.S. sanctions on Syria, while sanctions will not be lifted.
ISIS calls for attacks
ISIS made a call to its members to carry out attacks in Europe, the US and Israel, calling for action during New Year celebrations. “Prepare your belts, silencers, knives, and explosives” one message exhorts.
ISIS made a call to its members to carry out attacks in Europe, the US and Israel, calling for action during New Year celebrations. “Prepare your belts, silencers, knives, and explosives” one message exhorts.
# Analysis
We start 2025 with many things going on. January will be a challenging month, with a race of different actors to strengthen their positions, both in the military field as well as in diplomatic influence. Al-Sharaa is putting his HTS trusted circles in key positions in the goverment. You can read some of their (newly collected) biographies on wikipedia, partly documenting their past activities as "brave jihadist fighters" of al-Nusra. How much they are just playing a theater for western audiences, or how much they really moderated themselves in exchange for power in a Nation-State, is something that will be more clear in the next months.
The statements of an insurgent "popular resistance movement", with a certain iranian flavour and with russian fringe media echoing it, can contribute to new waves of instability if they come backed up with actions. The druze community in the south also seems unwilling to cooperate with HTS transitional government, contributing to a mosaic of actors that question HTS' proclaimed power. Meanwhile, many people in Syria's western cities are going out to the streets, fixing roads and painting murals, reinforcing bonds of solidarity and mutual aid among neighbors. This networks of civic organizing can easily flourish in local committees and popular councils, as they already did in the early years of the Syrian revolution. How much HTS government will give space to these local initiatives, and how much these grassroots movements will confront the authoritarian steps of HTS, is something that will be a determinant for the future of Syria.
The press statement of the 'joint forces' leaving the SNA coalition is an important step, moving towards a generalized meltdown of the Turkish proxy forces. It is not clear how much it is an open defection or maybe a 'cover' operation of Turkish intelligence, aiming to 'infiltrate' some of their trusted agents in the new Syrian Army. Still, together with many local reports of groups and fighters defecting to go back home, plus the big amount of losses that the resistance of SDF is inflicting against their attacks, all this is making SNA more an more unable to hold their ground. How much Turkey will try to keep SNA together or will try to invade directly if things don't play as they want remains still to be seen.
On the other side, the ongoing talks to integrate SDF in that same new Syrian Army are an uncomfortable but necessary step, in order to build relations with the transitional government and avoid being outmanuvered by Turkey. For now, they seem similar of nature to the negotiations with the Assad regime that were held in the past. SDF never reached any agreement with the regime that wouldnt compromise their integrity and values, and the same is true for the new negotiations with HTS.
Negotiations of this kind are diplomatic games, a projection of power of the different actors. If the balance of power changes, negotiations can be pushed in a new direction, with the stronger imposing their will and the other having to accept a compromise. Therefore the most plausible scenario is that those negotiations will get stalled, waiting to solve the differences on the battle field.
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
We start 2025 with many things going on. January will be a challenging month, with a race of different actors to strengthen their positions, both in the military field as well as in diplomatic influence. Al-Sharaa is putting his HTS trusted circles in key positions in the goverment. You can read some of their (newly collected) biographies on wikipedia, partly documenting their past activities as "brave jihadist fighters" of al-Nusra. How much they are just playing a theater for western audiences, or how much they really moderated themselves in exchange for power in a Nation-State, is something that will be more clear in the next months.
The statements of an insurgent "popular resistance movement", with a certain iranian flavour and with russian fringe media echoing it, can contribute to new waves of instability if they come backed up with actions. The druze community in the south also seems unwilling to cooperate with HTS transitional government, contributing to a mosaic of actors that question HTS' proclaimed power. Meanwhile, many people in Syria's western cities are going out to the streets, fixing roads and painting murals, reinforcing bonds of solidarity and mutual aid among neighbors. This networks of civic organizing can easily flourish in local committees and popular councils, as they already did in the early years of the Syrian revolution. How much HTS government will give space to these local initiatives, and how much these grassroots movements will confront the authoritarian steps of HTS, is something that will be a determinant for the future of Syria.
The press statement of the 'joint forces' leaving the SNA coalition is an important step, moving towards a generalized meltdown of the Turkish proxy forces. It is not clear how much it is an open defection or maybe a 'cover' operation of Turkish intelligence, aiming to 'infiltrate' some of their trusted agents in the new Syrian Army. Still, together with many local reports of groups and fighters defecting to go back home, plus the big amount of losses that the resistance of SDF is inflicting against their attacks, all this is making SNA more an more unable to hold their ground. How much Turkey will try to keep SNA together or will try to invade directly if things don't play as they want remains still to be seen.
On the other side, the ongoing talks to integrate SDF in that same new Syrian Army are an uncomfortable but necessary step, in order to build relations with the transitional government and avoid being outmanuvered by Turkey. For now, they seem similar of nature to the negotiations with the Assad regime that were held in the past. SDF never reached any agreement with the regime that wouldnt compromise their integrity and values, and the same is true for the new negotiations with HTS.
Negotiations of this kind are diplomatic games, a projection of power of the different actors. If the balance of power changes, negotiations can be pushed in a new direction, with the stronger imposing their will and the other having to accept a compromise. Therefore the most plausible scenario is that those negotiations will get stalled, waiting to solve the differences on the battle field.
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
👍1
Happy new year and revolutionary 2025! ❤️🖤
We had some problems updating the telegram channel, but we will keep it updated from now on! Also, we will start sending our updates every two days, with possibility to return to daily updates if things escalate again.
It is a lot of work to prepare and curate these messages! We are glad to see the interest for it, but we also have other works that require our attention. Two days still enought to keep everyone updated, we hope like this we can also improve our work, less quantity but better quality ✌️
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
We had some problems updating the telegram channel, but we will keep it updated from now on! Also, we will start sending our updates every two days, with possibility to return to daily updates if things escalate again.
It is a lot of work to prepare and curate these messages! We are glad to see the interest for it, but we also have other works that require our attention. Two days still enought to keep everyone updated, we hope like this we can also improve our work, less quantity but better quality ✌️
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
👍2
This new map is not from RIC as the ones before, but from the ISW, a sketchy american organization but with good fact checking.
This is how they assessed the situation in Syria at the end of the year. It contains very interesting details like contested areas in Manbij region, lack of clear control in the desert areas, or the local militias that formed the south operation room as 'unidentified opposition groups', as the groups that expanded around al-Tanf.
A lot can be said about this map, so we will us it from now on as avatar pic!
This is how they assessed the situation in Syria at the end of the year. It contains very interesting details like contested areas in Manbij region, lack of clear control in the desert areas, or the local militias that formed the south operation room as 'unidentified opposition groups', as the groups that expanded around al-Tanf.
A lot can be said about this map, so we will us it from now on as avatar pic!
Updates 03-04/Jan/2025
# NES
Manbij Front
SDF repelled a massive attack, killing 72 jihadist fighters. 11 SDF soldiers were also killed. Turkey continues to bomb the area and the already heavily damaged Tishreen Dam.
SNA order to kill
Allegedly, an internal information letter was sent to military police of SNA and several of their militias. The letter calls on them to execute any traitor attempting to defect to the enemy or caught trying to flee their area.
Turkey-Syria borders to HTS
Control of the Hammam border crossing between Turkey and Syria in Jindires area, in occupied Afrin, has been handed out to HTS as part of agreements to normalize the situation with the new administration in Damascus.
# Syria
Murderous past of justice minister
Shadi Al-Waisi was recently appointed as minister of justice. He has been identified in a video from Idlib in 2015, this video has been verified. In the video a woman is executed with a head shot in the middle of the street by armed men after Shadi Al-Waisi reads a "judicial" sentence from a smartphone.
Syrias education system
Syria’s new Ministry of Education has published 12 new documents reshaping the country’s education system. They are pushing a religiously driven worldview on what was once the Middle East’s most secular nation.
Tensions in Suwayda
Recent clashes between armed factions in Suwayda involving the armed group "Men of dignity" and another group that is apparently aligned with HTS took place. They left at least 4 deads. Protests followed the incident, some claiming support for an HTS goverment some against it. Some also denounced the sunni-islamist biased changes of educational curriculum.
Clashes on the Lebanese border
Clashes with the Lebanesse army broke out next to a blocked border crossing between Syria and Lebanon, with at least 1 Lebanese soldier badly injured. The Lebanese army claims they shot in the air as warning after a bulldozer moved to reopen the border-crossing, and armed men responded by firing at their positions. Some reports claim the armed men to be HTS fighters, other suggest smuggling networks. Allegedly, clashes resumed again later.
HTS security operations
HTS military personal conducted several raids and security controls after the Alawites protest last week. Some of those raids are evolving to clashes after facing armed resistance, allegedly from old regime loyalist. The Syrian Observatory of Human rights (SOHR) is reporting more than 100 arrested, some reports suggest summary executions of many of them.
# Foreign Policy
French and German FM in Damascus
Ms Baerbock and Mr Barrot are the first european FMs to visit the new governemnt in Damascus. They explained that they can see a renewed relationship between Europe and Syria, but under the condition of gender equality and protection of minorities. HTS officials receiving them refused to shake the hand of the German FM.
# NES
Manbij Front
SDF repelled a massive attack, killing 72 jihadist fighters. 11 SDF soldiers were also killed. Turkey continues to bomb the area and the already heavily damaged Tishreen Dam.
SNA order to kill
Allegedly, an internal information letter was sent to military police of SNA and several of their militias. The letter calls on them to execute any traitor attempting to defect to the enemy or caught trying to flee their area.
Turkey-Syria borders to HTS
Control of the Hammam border crossing between Turkey and Syria in Jindires area, in occupied Afrin, has been handed out to HTS as part of agreements to normalize the situation with the new administration in Damascus.
# Syria
Murderous past of justice minister
Shadi Al-Waisi was recently appointed as minister of justice. He has been identified in a video from Idlib in 2015, this video has been verified. In the video a woman is executed with a head shot in the middle of the street by armed men after Shadi Al-Waisi reads a "judicial" sentence from a smartphone.
Syrias education system
Syria’s new Ministry of Education has published 12 new documents reshaping the country’s education system. They are pushing a religiously driven worldview on what was once the Middle East’s most secular nation.
Tensions in Suwayda
Recent clashes between armed factions in Suwayda involving the armed group "Men of dignity" and another group that is apparently aligned with HTS took place. They left at least 4 deads. Protests followed the incident, some claiming support for an HTS goverment some against it. Some also denounced the sunni-islamist biased changes of educational curriculum.
Clashes on the Lebanese border
Clashes with the Lebanesse army broke out next to a blocked border crossing between Syria and Lebanon, with at least 1 Lebanese soldier badly injured. The Lebanese army claims they shot in the air as warning after a bulldozer moved to reopen the border-crossing, and armed men responded by firing at their positions. Some reports claim the armed men to be HTS fighters, other suggest smuggling networks. Allegedly, clashes resumed again later.
HTS security operations
HTS military personal conducted several raids and security controls after the Alawites protest last week. Some of those raids are evolving to clashes after facing armed resistance, allegedly from old regime loyalist. The Syrian Observatory of Human rights (SOHR) is reporting more than 100 arrested, some reports suggest summary executions of many of them.
# Foreign Policy
French and German FM in Damascus
Ms Baerbock and Mr Barrot are the first european FMs to visit the new governemnt in Damascus. They explained that they can see a renewed relationship between Europe and Syria, but under the condition of gender equality and protection of minorities. HTS officials receiving them refused to shake the hand of the German FM.
Analysis
The recent handover of strategical border-crossing points in Afrin to HTS is a very relevant development, it shows the will of Turkey to sacrifice SNA militias in exchange for better relations with HTS. Those border crossing points are a big source of tax revenue for the militias that control it, cutting down their access to funds and giving them to HTS will not just improve their economical situation but also reinforce the centralized control that the HTS transitional goverment is attempting. And of course, Turkey is expecting HTS to not forget that they are helping them with that, gaining a better diplomatic position in future negotiations.
The visit of the French and German foreign ministers to Damascus indicates that Europe is willing to accept the transitional goverment as legitimate respresentation of Syria. The video with the akward moment when Baerbock offers her hand and the reception delegation and they refuse to shake her hand, has been circulating a lot. It is a clear indication of the misogynist approach that this transitional goverment has. At the same time, they orchestrated a press conferance with an unveiled women talking on behalf of the White Helmets, a rescue organization with close ties with HTS and Turkey. This is clearly a move for media spectacle, since any pictures ever seen of women working with White helmets has been always with veil and gloves, and always as having an auxiliar role. This adds to other examples of HTS tokenizing women to appear moderate and aligned with inclusive values, but it is clearly nothing else than a facade.
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
The recent handover of strategical border-crossing points in Afrin to HTS is a very relevant development, it shows the will of Turkey to sacrifice SNA militias in exchange for better relations with HTS. Those border crossing points are a big source of tax revenue for the militias that control it, cutting down their access to funds and giving them to HTS will not just improve their economical situation but also reinforce the centralized control that the HTS transitional goverment is attempting. And of course, Turkey is expecting HTS to not forget that they are helping them with that, gaining a better diplomatic position in future negotiations.
The visit of the French and German foreign ministers to Damascus indicates that Europe is willing to accept the transitional goverment as legitimate respresentation of Syria. The video with the akward moment when Baerbock offers her hand and the reception delegation and they refuse to shake her hand, has been circulating a lot. It is a clear indication of the misogynist approach that this transitional goverment has. At the same time, they orchestrated a press conferance with an unveiled women talking on behalf of the White Helmets, a rescue organization with close ties with HTS and Turkey. This is clearly a move for media spectacle, since any pictures ever seen of women working with White helmets has been always with veil and gloves, and always as having an auxiliar role. This adds to other examples of HTS tokenizing women to appear moderate and aligned with inclusive values, but it is clearly nothing else than a facade.
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
News from the front!
Weekly Highlights 28.12.24 - 03.01.25
Clashes in Manbij countryside
Heavy clashes continued in Manbij countryside, with SDF holding ground against the SNA offensives around Qereqozah bridge and Tishreen Dam. Several armored vehicles of turkish proxy forces were destroyed, including tanks and other advanced equipment like radars, even an (in)famous UAV Bayraktar TB2.
HTS government
The cabinet of the transitional government is getting filled with HTS leadership and close circles of Ahmed al-Sharaa, that is acting as a de facto president of Syria. Names of important Jihadist fighters are being published as heads of ministeries and other important state institutions. Al-Sharaa also announced that HTS will be dissolved in the transition process, probably as a strategy to get rid of the terrorist label and gain legitimacy as new government.
Negotiations SDF-HTS
A delegation of SDF command met with a delegation of the transitional government, including al-Sharaa and other relevant HTS members. They negotiated possible integration of SDF in the new Syrian army that is being organized. An agreement was not reached, but negotiations remain open.
SNA facing problems
Two main factions of SNA (Sultan Suleyman Sha and Hamza divisions) left the SNA coalition to join the ranks of the new Syrian Army under the influence of HTS. Many fighters are dying in the front lines of Manbij countryside. Other fighters and groups are defecting to return back to their homes, now free of the Assad regime, often getting arrested and imprisoned by SNA military police in the attempt.
Women's resistance
Declarations of the newly appointed ministry of women affairs, saying that islamic law (sharia) should guide Syria and that she won't let feminist NGOs that don't think like her operate. Many women's organizations like the newly founded Syrian Women's council made statements criticizing it and remarking the role and the importance of women in the revolution.
ISIS resurgence
ISIS has been increasing their activity and attacking security checkpoints in many different parts of Syria as well as Iraq. They also spread a call for their followers to do attacks in US, Europe or Israel. One message called to “Prepare your belts, silencers, knives, and explosives”. The International coalition has been conducting precise bombings in different locations in Syria.
Repression of minorities
The protests that sparked in several cities after the tomb of an historic Alawite scholar was desecrated were met with military repression, with big convoys of HTS fighters being sent to disperse protests. Some clashes with armed protestors were reported. The druze community also stated their intentions to not integrate their militias into the new Syrian army, challenging the call of the transitional goverment to surrend all the weapons to the transitional goverment.
Weekly Highlights 28.12.24 - 03.01.25
Clashes in Manbij countryside
Heavy clashes continued in Manbij countryside, with SDF holding ground against the SNA offensives around Qereqozah bridge and Tishreen Dam. Several armored vehicles of turkish proxy forces were destroyed, including tanks and other advanced equipment like radars, even an (in)famous UAV Bayraktar TB2.
HTS government
The cabinet of the transitional government is getting filled with HTS leadership and close circles of Ahmed al-Sharaa, that is acting as a de facto president of Syria. Names of important Jihadist fighters are being published as heads of ministeries and other important state institutions. Al-Sharaa also announced that HTS will be dissolved in the transition process, probably as a strategy to get rid of the terrorist label and gain legitimacy as new government.
Negotiations SDF-HTS
A delegation of SDF command met with a delegation of the transitional government, including al-Sharaa and other relevant HTS members. They negotiated possible integration of SDF in the new Syrian army that is being organized. An agreement was not reached, but negotiations remain open.
SNA facing problems
Two main factions of SNA (Sultan Suleyman Sha and Hamza divisions) left the SNA coalition to join the ranks of the new Syrian Army under the influence of HTS. Many fighters are dying in the front lines of Manbij countryside. Other fighters and groups are defecting to return back to their homes, now free of the Assad regime, often getting arrested and imprisoned by SNA military police in the attempt.
Women's resistance
Declarations of the newly appointed ministry of women affairs, saying that islamic law (sharia) should guide Syria and that she won't let feminist NGOs that don't think like her operate. Many women's organizations like the newly founded Syrian Women's council made statements criticizing it and remarking the role and the importance of women in the revolution.
ISIS resurgence
ISIS has been increasing their activity and attacking security checkpoints in many different parts of Syria as well as Iraq. They also spread a call for their followers to do attacks in US, Europe or Israel. One message called to “Prepare your belts, silencers, knives, and explosives”. The International coalition has been conducting precise bombings in different locations in Syria.
Repression of minorities
The protests that sparked in several cities after the tomb of an historic Alawite scholar was desecrated were met with military repression, with big convoys of HTS fighters being sent to disperse protests. Some clashes with armed protestors were reported. The druze community also stated their intentions to not integrate their militias into the new Syrian army, challenging the call of the transitional goverment to surrend all the weapons to the transitional goverment.
Updates 05-06/Jan/2025
# NES
Heavy clashes in Eufrates region
A massive SNA attack on the strategic hill near Tishrin dam was repelled by the SDF, inflicting heavy losses in SNA ranks. Air units of the SDF (drones) published videos of 2 armored vehicles and another military vehicle being destroyed. After the clashes, turkish planes bombed the area, damaging some of SDF's armored vehicles.
SOHR numbers of the clashes
Over the last 2 days SOHR documented the deaths of 85 SNA militias and 16 SDF fighters.
Since the beginning of the fighting around Manbij city SOHR counts as killed: 25 civilians, including five women and two children; 203 Turkish-backed militiamen; 57 members of SDF. Reports on the ground suggest higher numbers.
Turkish bombings continue
Turkish campaigns of drone strikes and artillery fire continue targeting positions beyond the front lines, especially in Kobane countryside and in the occupied M4 strip between Ain Issa and Til Temir.
# Syria
Security operations continue
Security forces aligned with the transitional goverment continued security operations, mostly targeting people that had important roles with the old regime, like secret police and military personnel.
Local security committees
After the unrest of last week, local security committees are organizing checkpoints in multiple cities in coordination with HTS command. Residents stand guard outside shops and homes, armed with light weapons to fill the security vacuum.
Israels illegal occupation
Residents of Quneitra protested against the Israeli occupation of their homes and the lack of action from Syria’s new authorities and the international community. Israeli forces have demolished homes and prevented farmers from going to their fields in some areas. On at least two occasions, Israeli troops reportedly opened fired on protesters.
The United Nations has accused Israel of violating the 1974 ceasefire agreement by entering the buffer zone, but the new Syrian Govn. is in no rush to confront Israel.
# Foreign Policy
Turkey: HTS can guard ISIS
In an attempt to lessen the importance of the SDF's presence, Turkish FM stated that the new Damascus administration can take over ISIS prisons.
US sanctions relief
US announced a sanction relief for Syria, issuing waivers to aid groups and companies providing essential services, such as water, electricity and other humanitarian supplies for next six months.
France support the kurds
After the visit of French FM to Damascus, French President Macron stated that "France will not abandon Kurdish freedom fighters in Syria."
# NES
Heavy clashes in Eufrates region
A massive SNA attack on the strategic hill near Tishrin dam was repelled by the SDF, inflicting heavy losses in SNA ranks. Air units of the SDF (drones) published videos of 2 armored vehicles and another military vehicle being destroyed. After the clashes, turkish planes bombed the area, damaging some of SDF's armored vehicles.
SOHR numbers of the clashes
Over the last 2 days SOHR documented the deaths of 85 SNA militias and 16 SDF fighters.
Since the beginning of the fighting around Manbij city SOHR counts as killed: 25 civilians, including five women and two children; 203 Turkish-backed militiamen; 57 members of SDF. Reports on the ground suggest higher numbers.
Turkish bombings continue
Turkish campaigns of drone strikes and artillery fire continue targeting positions beyond the front lines, especially in Kobane countryside and in the occupied M4 strip between Ain Issa and Til Temir.
# Syria
Security operations continue
Security forces aligned with the transitional goverment continued security operations, mostly targeting people that had important roles with the old regime, like secret police and military personnel.
Local security committees
After the unrest of last week, local security committees are organizing checkpoints in multiple cities in coordination with HTS command. Residents stand guard outside shops and homes, armed with light weapons to fill the security vacuum.
Israels illegal occupation
Residents of Quneitra protested against the Israeli occupation of their homes and the lack of action from Syria’s new authorities and the international community. Israeli forces have demolished homes and prevented farmers from going to their fields in some areas. On at least two occasions, Israeli troops reportedly opened fired on protesters.
The United Nations has accused Israel of violating the 1974 ceasefire agreement by entering the buffer zone, but the new Syrian Govn. is in no rush to confront Israel.
# Foreign Policy
Turkey: HTS can guard ISIS
In an attempt to lessen the importance of the SDF's presence, Turkish FM stated that the new Damascus administration can take over ISIS prisons.
US sanctions relief
US announced a sanction relief for Syria, issuing waivers to aid groups and companies providing essential services, such as water, electricity and other humanitarian supplies for next six months.
France support the kurds
After the visit of French FM to Damascus, French President Macron stated that "France will not abandon Kurdish freedom fighters in Syria."
Analysis
The extreme instability of the last month seems to be slowing down. This is a dangerous time, where the international media attention starts to withdraw, forgetting once again what is happening in Syria. The heavy clashes of Manbij countryside are the new normality, as well as the intensified artillery attacks of Turkish army, as well as the constant drone strikes all over north east Syria. In the big cities of Western Syria the transitional government is tightening their control, with security operations targeting mainly old regime loyalists for now.
The unstable situation of the Kurdish neighborhoods of Sheik Mekhsud and Ashrafia in Aleppo is slowly (but silently) escalating tensions. SNA fighters dropped some explosive devices days ago before being shot by local defense forces. Today, a crowd chanting slogans aligned with the transitional government marched towards the kurdish neighborhoods. YPG forces fired warning shots in the sky to disperse the march, and for now it stopped there.
The local militias from Suwayda "Men of dignity" and "Mountain brigade" made statements rejecting sectarian factional armies and condemning the deadly clashes that took place recently in the south of Syria. It is not clear to us if the clashes where with HTS supporters (as we reported recently) or with old regime loyalist groups. Or maybe with both, reports seem confusing and our lack of trusted sources from southern Syria makes it difficult to get a good grasp of the situation.
The fatigue and exhaustion after more than a month of frantic activity are also weighing on everyone. In these times we can see the dynamics of war switching from sprint to marathon, where endurance and resilience become critical. Those who can't withstand the pressure, those who break, will open small windows of opportunity for their enemies. SDF has repeatedly proven its strength in this long term race, so now is time to wait for enemy mistakes. As Sun Tzu wrote 15 centuries ago: "To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself."
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
The extreme instability of the last month seems to be slowing down. This is a dangerous time, where the international media attention starts to withdraw, forgetting once again what is happening in Syria. The heavy clashes of Manbij countryside are the new normality, as well as the intensified artillery attacks of Turkish army, as well as the constant drone strikes all over north east Syria. In the big cities of Western Syria the transitional government is tightening their control, with security operations targeting mainly old regime loyalists for now.
The unstable situation of the Kurdish neighborhoods of Sheik Mekhsud and Ashrafia in Aleppo is slowly (but silently) escalating tensions. SNA fighters dropped some explosive devices days ago before being shot by local defense forces. Today, a crowd chanting slogans aligned with the transitional government marched towards the kurdish neighborhoods. YPG forces fired warning shots in the sky to disperse the march, and for now it stopped there.
The local militias from Suwayda "Men of dignity" and "Mountain brigade" made statements rejecting sectarian factional armies and condemning the deadly clashes that took place recently in the south of Syria. It is not clear to us if the clashes where with HTS supporters (as we reported recently) or with old regime loyalist groups. Or maybe with both, reports seem confusing and our lack of trusted sources from southern Syria makes it difficult to get a good grasp of the situation.
The fatigue and exhaustion after more than a month of frantic activity are also weighing on everyone. In these times we can see the dynamics of war switching from sprint to marathon, where endurance and resilience become critical. Those who can't withstand the pressure, those who break, will open small windows of opportunity for their enemies. SDF has repeatedly proven its strength in this long term race, so now is time to wait for enemy mistakes. As Sun Tzu wrote 15 centuries ago: "To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself."
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤