Axis of Ordinary – Telegram
Axis of Ordinary
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Memetic and cognitive hazards.

Substack: https://axisofordinary.substack.com/
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Links for 2023-08-08

1. ‘We’re changing the clouds.’ An unforeseen test of geoengineering is fueling record ocean warmth. This accident is making scientists realize that with not much effort we can geoengineer the earth and reduce the effect of greenhouse gas emissions. https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth [https://archive.is/fpZSB]

2. Tool Documentation Enables Zero-Shot Tool-Usage with Large Language Models — Using only the docs for GroundingDino, StableDiffusion, XMem, SAM: LLMs re-invented the functionalities of just-released systems. https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.00675

3. "We present Perfusion, a new text-to-image personalization method. With only a 100KB model size per concept (excluding the pretrained model, which is a few GBs), trained for roughly 4 minutes, Perfusion can creatively portray personalized objects." https://research.nvidia.com/labs/par/Perfusion/

4. A Practical Deep Learning-Based Acoustic Side Channel Attack on Keyboards — Correctly identifies 93% of keystrokes via sounds over zoom calls. https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01074

5. Since DeepMind's AlphaFold solved the "protein folding problem," AI tools have helped craft entirely new proteins. The benefits for medicine could be huge. https://www.dw.com/en/generative-ai-inventing-proteins-is-changing-medicine/a-66356415

6. parsel is a framework that helps large language models do a better job on tasks involving hierarchical multi-step reasoning and problem solving. http://zelikman.me/parselpaper/

7. “In this study, AI was more accurate than two thirds of radiologists, yet when radiologists had AI help their diagnoses did not improve. Why? Humans ignored the AI’s advice when it conflicted with their views.” https://blueprintcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Blueprint-Discussion-Paper-2023.10-Agarwal-Moehring-Rajpurkar-Salz_2.pdf

8. Yann LeCun on AGI and AI Safety https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zfik4xESDyahRALKk/yann-lecun-on-agi-and-ai-safety

9. “Both sides in British politics have an interest in overstating the level of crime. Neither narrative is correct.” https://www.aporiamagazine.com/p/british-police-are-doing-a-pretty

10. Why You Should Never Update Your Beliefs https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LCduhA4m3RhMjZJPA/why-you-should-never-update-your-beliefs

11. How the pursuit of pleasure could doom all intelligent life to a blissful extinction https://bigthink.com/the-future/pursuit-happiness-doom-intelligent-life-blissful-extinction/

12. “One year ago, experts were certain that America was headed for a recession. But the 2023 economy is historically strong. What happened?” https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/08/recession-doomers-economy/674900/ [https://archive.is/bMzgE]
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"Elon and mark say no to fighting and instead start a family on mars"
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Links for 2023-08-09

1. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says his timelines to "generally well educated human" are 2-3 years. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nlkk3glap_U

2. “We present AgentBench, a multi-dimensional evolving benchmark that currently consists of 8 distinct environments to assess LLM-as-Agent's reasoning and decision-making abilities in a multi-turn open-ended generation setting.” https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.03688

3. Autochain is a lightweight, simpler alternative to Langchain. It allows developers to build complex applications on top of large language models and databases. https://github.com/Forethought-Technologies/AutoChain

4. gpt-prompt-engineer is a tool that reads a denoscription of the task you want an AI to perform, plus a number of test cases. It then generates a large number of prompts about a topic, tests the prompts, and rates the results. https://github.com/mshumer/gpt-prompt-engineer

5. Untangling Infrabayesianism: A redistillation [PDF link; ~12k words + lots of math] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xne4Bma99bKXWc9AH/untangling-infrabayesianism-a-redistillation-pdf-link-12k

6. Desirable properties for a superconductor http://nanoscale.blogspot.com/2023/08/desirable-properties-for-superconductor.html

7. “With a great deal of sadness, we now believe that the game is over. LK99 is NOT a superconductor, not even at room temperatures (or at very low temperatures). It is a very highly resistive poor quality material. Period. No point in fighting with the truth. Data have spoken.” https://twitter.com/condensed_the/status/1688747910471561216

8. “I expected that interest in LK-99 would just die a slow death after no one could replicate it; rarely is a smoking gun found that explains the spurious observations. But in this case it seems we have a full coroner's report!” https://twitter.com/MichaelSFuhrer/status/1689098570920759296

9. LK-99 superconductor: Real money prediction markets fall to 13%... https://twitter.com/base_rate_times/status/1688987353866702848

10. The Collapse of Broken-Windows Policing in New York City, Los Angeles, and Washington, DC, 2013–22 https://www.aei.org/research-products/working-paper/the-collapse-of-broken-windows-policing-in-new-york-city-los-angeles-and-washington-dc-2013-22/

11. "It is striking that asians with parents who did not complete high school score 100 points above blacks with PhD parents." https://humanvarieties.org/2023/08/06/a-remarkable-correlation-between-iq-and-sat-scores-across-ethnic-groups/

12. “Critics of the Supreme Court call its decisions "right wing" and "extreme." But read them yourselves and I'll bet you'll conclude, as I did, that they are more informed by small-l liberalism and that the vast majority are solidly in line with public opinion.” https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/08/defense-supreme-court/674874/ [https://archive.is/YKv6Q]

13. "I can hear legions of consequentialists desperately rationalizing 'the fact' that family punishment always fails a cost-benefit test. My one-word reply: 'Seriously?!'" https://betonit.substack.com/p/why-not-punish-families

14. How Taiwan plans to counter drones by mid-2024 https://www.defensenews.com/unmanned/2023/08/01/how-taiwan-plans-to-counter-drones-by-mid-2024/
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The source for the old videos is here:

"In a previous life, the Boston Dynamics founders developed a new breed of dynamic robots. Here are clips from those early one-legged, two-legged and four-legged robots developed at Carnegie Mellon (1980-1986) and MIT (1987-1995)." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bd5iEke6UlE
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"It's like a radioactive tracer shot through global academia, briefly revealing a lower bound on how much garbage "research" is out there."

— gwern

https://twitter.com/gwern/status/1689450163469717509
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Links for 2023-08-10

1. Experiment led by Med School professor allows animals to live 6-9 percent longer, lower biological age https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/08/blood-of-young-mice-extends-lives-of-old-mice/

2. Novo’s obesity drug Wegovy lowers cardiovascular risk by 20%, landmark trial finds https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/08/health/wegovy-obesity-drugs-heart-disease.html [https://archive.is/dLYkw]

3. On not getting contaminated by the wrong obesity ideas https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NRrbJJWnaSorrqvtZ/on-not-getting-contaminated-by-the-wrong-obesity-ideas

4. AI offers huge promise on breast cancer screening https://www.bbc.com/news/health-66382168

5. “An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks: It is quite comprehensive and contains a ton of details about a) threat models of how AI could go catastrophically wrong b) countermeasures we could implement.” https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.12001

6. Nvidia CEO: We bet the farm on AI and no one knew it https://techcrunch.com/2023/08/08/nvidia-ceo-we-bet-the-farm-on-ai-and-no-one-knew-it/

7. What is ontology? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZG94agRiYbHHcSSmp/what-is-ontology

8. US Army developing LASSO tank-killing drone for infantry https://www.militarytimes.com/unmanned/uas/2023/07/31/us-army-developing-lasso-tank-killing-drone-for-infantry/

9. The aliens could be signaling us now and we wouldn’t even “hear” it: X-ray or gamma-ray lasers for communication https://twitter.com/NukeSpaceCadet/status/1686907440414273536

10. Unpatchable AMD Chip Flaw Unlocks Paid Tesla Feature Upgrades https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tesla-mcu-amd-asp-flaw-jailbreak

11. Google Pays Apple $15,000 For Hacking Chrome Security https://www.forbes.com/sites/daveywinder/2023/08/03/google-pays-apple-15000-for-hacking-chrome-security/

12. “Analysis of 50 major Europe- and North America-based global non-profit organizations…showed that environmental and climate groups were the most likely to include Taiwan as part of China, or exclude it altogether, in maps and reports.” https://hongkongfp.com/2023/08/06/why-are-the-worlds-climate-and-environment-ngos-trying-to-erase-taiwan-from-the-map/
Links for 2023-08-11

1. Inflection.ai is a major AGI lab https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wc5BYFfzuLzepQjCq/inflection-ai-is-a-major-agi-lab

2. Gwern: why hasn’t AI-generated music taken off in the same way as AI-generated art or AI-generated text? He thinks it’s a combination of copyright, low demand, and technical difficulty https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-284/comment/18354821

3. The famed Stanford Smallville is officially open-source: 25 AI agents inhabit a digital Westworld, unaware that they are living in a simulation. They go to work, gossip, organize socials, make new friends, and even fall in love. Each has unique personality and backstory. https://github.com/joonspk-research/generative_agents

4. “Separate Anything Audio Model - AudioSep! Showcasing powerful separation capabilities & impressive zero-shot generalization across tasks: audio event & musical instrument separation and speech enhancement!” https://audio-agi.github.io/Separate-Anything-You-Describe/

5. Ketamine: WD-40 for the Bayesian brain https://smoothbrains.net/posts/2023-08-01-ketamine.html

6. “So one of the questions most fusion startups are going to have to answer is where do you get tritium to keep sustaining the reaction?” –Michael Koziol https://spectrum.ieee.org/fusion-is-having-a-moment

7. HADAR: New Method Allows AI To See Through Pitch Darkness Like Broad Daylight https://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2023/Q3/purdue-thermal-imaging-innovation-allows-ai-to-see-through-pitch-darkness-like-broad-daylight.html

8. “The study comparing data from patients who had their thymus removed with those who had not found that thymectomy patients had a nearly threefold higher risk of death from a variety of causes, including a twofold higher risk of cancer and a more modest increase in autoimmune diseases.” https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/08/turns-out-lowly-thymus-may-be-saving-your-life/

9. “I learned a bit about fracking today and even relative to my prior expectation holy cow does it sound like sorcery.” https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1685460287129063424

10. Trannoscript of taped conversations among German nuclear physicists (1945) https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/08/trannoscript-of-taped-conversations-among-german-nuclear-physicists-1945.html

11. About half of the Chinese people are gamers: "China’s video game player population has grown to a record of 668 million, a government-run game industry association said" https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2023/07/29/video-game-player-population-grows-to-668-million
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Links for 2023-08-12

1. Chinese tech companies reportedly rushed to stockpile $5 billion worth of advanced gaming processors to power artificial-intelligence development. https://www.ft.com/content/9dfee156-4870-4ca4-b67d-bb5a285d855c [https://archive.is/LpAG2]

2. Evidence Shows AI-Driven Companies Are Buying up Gaming GPUs https://www.tomshardware.com/news/evidence-shows-ai-driven-companies-are-buying-up-gaming-gpus

3. Nvidia Unveils Faster Chip Aimed at Cementing AI Dominance https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-08/nvidia-unveils-faster-processor-aimed-at-cementing-ai-dominance [https://archive.is/GNcJE]

4. 3D Gaussian Splatting for Real-Time Radiance Field Rendering https://repo-sam.inria.fr/fungraph/3d-gaussian-splatting/

5. GPT-3 Aces Tests of Reasoning by Analogy https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/07/large-language-models-beat-undergrads-on-tests-of-reasoning-via-analogy/

6. “No one likes geoengineering. It will certainly be done, as it is the lesser of two evils. Of course, increasing the global greenhouse gas forcing by 4 W/m² is also a form of geoengineering. We don't like that, but did it nonetheless.” https://www.ryanlcooper.com/geoengineering-is-going-to-happen/

7. “Skin cancer rates are ~17-fold higher in the UK compared to Singapore despite that Singaporeans bathe in 2-3 fold more UV radiation than the British.” https://twitter.com/doctorveera/status/1687590434644606976

8. Super Radar: Breakthrough radar research overcomes a nearly century-old trade-off between wavelength and distance resolution https://news.chapman.edu/2023/08/02/super-radar-breakthrough-radar-research-overcomes-a-nearly-century-old-trade-off-between-wavelength-and-distance-resolution-2/

9. Revolutionizing Optical Imaging With Complex-Domain Neural Networks https://spie.org/news/complex-domain-neural-network-advances-large-scale-coherent-imaging

10. “What the hell is an ampersand and why does it look like that?! The first thing you need to know is that "&" used to be the 27th letter of the alphabet...” https://twitter.com/culturaltutor/status/1687673402750828544

11. Remains found in China may belong to third human lineage https://phys.org/news/2023-08-china-human-lineage.html
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"Incredible 3D visualization of a human embryo in the fifth week of life. Note the tail and fishlike appearance. All vertebrate embryos look roughly like this; we start from the same place, then diverge as we develop. Humans are modified fish."

https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1690075745518002176
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This reminds me of religious people who argue that you can't be a good person without faith.

I'd recommend staying as far away as possible from anyone who is incapable of being compassionate without believing in some untruths.

https://twitter.com/Steve_Sailer/status/1690160419397365760
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