A massive explosion was reported tonight in the Tartous Governorate, Syria following IDF strikes on weapon stockpiles.
The strikes were allegedly carried out using missiles launched from warships.
The strikes were allegedly carried out using missiles launched from warships.
Multiple sources report that a Russian Caspian Flotilla corvette fired a radar-guided surface-to-air missile at Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243, causing significant damage to the plane's rudder and most of its hydraulic systems. The warhead appears to be of the size typically associated with a Pantsir system, rather than a larger Buk warhead. The missile was radar-guided, as indicated by the undamaged engines, which would not be the case with an infrared-guided missile. While the missile left the aircraft in a precarious state, with less skilled pilots, it could have crashed immediately. However, the pilots' expertise allowed them to execute a flare maneuver, slowing the descent and performing a hard landing in a field, ultimately saving at least some of the passengers.
As reported yesterday, preliminary investigation results suggest that Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, en route from Baku to Grozny, was targeted by a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system as it approached Grozny. At the same time, Russian electronic warfare systems disabled the plane’s communication systems, causing it to vanish from radar within Russian airspace. The signal was only restored later, near the Caspian Sea. It was also confirmed that Grozny airport, along with Makhachkala and Mineralnye Vody airports, denied the plane permission to land. Disoriented and under attack, the crew diverted to Aktau in Kazakhstan. This raises suspicions that the incident may have been an attempt to force the plane into the Caspian Sea, where all witnesses would perish and the wreckage would sink, leaving no trace.
Currently, the Russian state has not taken responsibility for its actions nor issued any compensation or apology.
Currently, the Russian state has not taken responsibility for its actions nor issued any compensation or apology.
Yesterday morning, the booster block of the Pantsir-1S anti-missile system fell near Vladikavkaz. Local Russian media briefly covered the incident after a video surfaced, but these reports were quickly deleted in the aftermath of the news about the Azerbaijani plane crash.
Based on our investigation, the Pantsir booster found in Vladikavkaz was most likely the model used to down the Azerbaijani airliner, employing the new 57E6M-E interceptor missile.
Additionally, the location corresponds to the flight path of the Azerbaijani civilian aircraft.
Based on our investigation, the Pantsir booster found in Vladikavkaz was most likely the model used to down the Azerbaijani airliner, employing the new 57E6M-E interceptor missile.
Additionally, the location corresponds to the flight path of the Azerbaijani civilian aircraft.
The aircraft transmitted valid ADS-B data until 04:25 UTC, after which it experienced GPS interference and ceased transmitting until 04:37. When data resumed, it revealed a dramatic drop in altitude and speed, from 30,000 feet and 400 knots to 14,025 feet and 52 knots.
A Potential New Proxy Conflict Between Turkey and Russia
A Russian An-124 flight from Khmeimim Air Base in Syria to Al Khadim Air Base in Libya was confirmed tonight, signaling a significant shift in Russia’s military strategy. This move follows the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, prompting Moscow to redirect its resources away from Syria and focus more on Libya. The flight, which carried military equipment, underscores Russia’s increasing support for General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) in its ongoing struggle for control of the country.
This strategic shift could have wide-ranging implications, particularly given Turkey's involvement in the Libyan conflict. Turkey has been a strong supporter of the internationally recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli, which opposes Haftar’s forces. With Russia and Turkey backing rival factions in Libya, tensions are likely to escalate, raising the possibility of renewed conflict between the two competing governments.
PART 1
A Russian An-124 flight from Khmeimim Air Base in Syria to Al Khadim Air Base in Libya was confirmed tonight, signaling a significant shift in Russia’s military strategy. This move follows the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, prompting Moscow to redirect its resources away from Syria and focus more on Libya. The flight, which carried military equipment, underscores Russia’s increasing support for General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) in its ongoing struggle for control of the country.
This strategic shift could have wide-ranging implications, particularly given Turkey's involvement in the Libyan conflict. Turkey has been a strong supporter of the internationally recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli, which opposes Haftar’s forces. With Russia and Turkey backing rival factions in Libya, tensions are likely to escalate, raising the possibility of renewed conflict between the two competing governments.
PART 1
Complicating matters further, Russia's Wagner Group has already established a presence in Libya, providing military expertise and support to Haftar’s forces. The increased Russian military footprint, now bolstered by the An-124 delivery, will give Moscow greater leverage in the region.
With Russia’s influence in Syria effectively ended after Assad's fall, Moscow is now focused on maintaining a military footprint in the Mediterranean, particularly through its involvement in Libya’s strategic oil and maritime sectors. To strengthen its position, Russia will likely seek to support the LNA in capturing more territory held by the UN-recognized Government of National Unity (GNU).
PART 2
With Russia’s influence in Syria effectively ended after Assad's fall, Moscow is now focused on maintaining a military footprint in the Mediterranean, particularly through its involvement in Libya’s strategic oil and maritime sectors. To strengthen its position, Russia will likely seek to support the LNA in capturing more territory held by the UN-recognized Government of National Unity (GNU).
PART 2
Russian sources report that despite pressure from the Kremlin and Ramzan Kadyrov, Azerbaijani officials refused to cover up or classify the investigation into the tragedy of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, which was downed by Russian air defense systems.
The second Russian An-124 heavy lifter has flown from Hmeimim Airbase in Syria to Libya. As previously reported, it seems the Russians are working to strengthen their presence in Libya and expand their access to the Mediterranean Sea, with the support of General Haftar and the LNA.
Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 Struck 3 Times by Russian Missiles and Cannon Fire.
A reliable source has confirmed that Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was struck three times during the attack on Wednesday, consistent with the operational behavior of the Pantsir-S1 SAM system. Survivors also reported hearing three separate explosions. The Pantsir-S1 typically fires 2-3 shots per engagement to ensure a target is neutralized. It is equipped with both surface-to-air missiles for high-probability strikes and a 30mm cannon for precise targeting in close-range or high-interference environments.
A reliable source has confirmed that Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was struck three times during the attack on Wednesday, consistent with the operational behavior of the Pantsir-S1 SAM system. Survivors also reported hearing three separate explosions. The Pantsir-S1 typically fires 2-3 shots per engagement to ensure a target is neutralized. It is equipped with both surface-to-air missiles for high-probability strikes and a 30mm cannon for precise targeting in close-range or high-interference environments.
Escalating Military Buildup in the Caucasus Region Amid Calls for Peace.
Although both Armenia and Azerbaijan have publicly called for a peace agreement, our analysis of recent developments reveals a troubling reality. This time, we focused on Armenia. Satellite imagery from the past year shows the construction of over 1200 Armenian military positions along the border, including bunkers, command posts, trenches, and artillery positions. This significant military buildup raises serious concerns that a broader conflict may be on the horizon. With both nations prioritizing military preparedness, the prospect of peace seems increasingly elusive. Armenia has dramatically increased its defense budget, surging from $600 million to $1.7 billion this year, while Azerbaijan has allocated $4.9 billion for its defense budget in the same period.
Below is a brief compilation of some of the positions we identified through satellite imagery.
Although both Armenia and Azerbaijan have publicly called for a peace agreement, our analysis of recent developments reveals a troubling reality. This time, we focused on Armenia. Satellite imagery from the past year shows the construction of over 1200 Armenian military positions along the border, including bunkers, command posts, trenches, and artillery positions. This significant military buildup raises serious concerns that a broader conflict may be on the horizon. With both nations prioritizing military preparedness, the prospect of peace seems increasingly elusive. Armenia has dramatically increased its defense budget, surging from $600 million to $1.7 billion this year, while Azerbaijan has allocated $4.9 billion for its defense budget in the same period.
Below is a brief compilation of some of the positions we identified through satellite imagery.
There is a vast array of plans, mostly set up and ready by Israel to confront Iran:
1-Cyberattacks disabling key infrastructure in Iran.
2-Direct strikes from Israeli soil.
3-Airstrikes using neighboring countries airspace.
4-Sending large caches of weapons through a Muslim ally country to support an uprising by a large community within Iran that has long been mistreated by the Iranian regime.
5-Activating Mossad agents within Iran to sabotage key government infrastructure including nuclear sites.
1-Cyberattacks disabling key infrastructure in Iran.
2-Direct strikes from Israeli soil.
3-Airstrikes using neighboring countries airspace.
4-Sending large caches of weapons through a Muslim ally country to support an uprising by a large community within Iran that has long been mistreated by the Iranian regime.
5-Activating Mossad agents within Iran to sabotage key government infrastructure including nuclear sites.