Trump launches Operation Epic Fury against Iran 💣
President Trump announced that the U.S. has begun what he called a “massive” campaign. The stated objective is to destroy Iran’s missile forces, missile industry, navy, nuclear program, and regional proxies. U.S. forces have already struck multiple Iranian naval bases in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
🇮🇱 At the same time, initial Israeli strikes reportedly targeted senior Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Pezeshkian.
The conflict is expanding fast. Iran has launched ballistic missiles toward Israel, Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar.
🌍 It is turning into a regional war. The U.S. demands were never acceptable to Tehran, and the negotiations now look like a formality before escalation.
Expect oil prices to rise and equities and crypto to continue falling. So far BTC is down 3% to $64k🔽
President Trump announced that the U.S. has begun what he called a “massive” campaign. The stated objective is to destroy Iran’s missile forces, missile industry, navy, nuclear program, and regional proxies. U.S. forces have already struck multiple Iranian naval bases in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
The conflict is expanding fast. Iran has launched ballistic missiles toward Israel, Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar.
Expect oil prices to rise and equities and crypto to continue falling. So far BTC is down 3% to $64k
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Iran is firing missiles and launching drone strikes across the region. U.S. bases have been hit. Missiles were sent toward Israel, Bahrain, the UAE, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait and Qatar 💣
There is footage of a drone striking near the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. Another shows a drone hitting a residential high-rise in Bahrain. This is no longer confined to military targets, it is terrorism. The cost asymmetry is obvious. A relatively cheap drone can cause massive real estate damage and crush tourism-driven GDP in cities like Dubai.
🛩 Israel says it carried out the largest airstrike in its history. Around 200 fighter jets dropped hundreds of munitions on roughly 500 targets inside Iran. At the same time, Saudi Arabia says it is ready to join the U.S., and Qatar is aligning with Washington.
Now the real question is whether this is a short exchange or the start of something much longer?
🤔 Trump has communicated an intention to fully dismantle Iran’s leadership and military capability and is openly talking about regime change.
Iran confirmed its Defense Minister and a Revolutionary Guard commander got killed, brushing it off by saying losing a few commanders is “not such a big problem.” There is still no confirmed information on whether their leader Khamenei survived. Israeli assessments say the chances are slim, but nothing official yet.
What is confirmed is that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. Tankers are piling up. Oil majors and traders have suspended shipments. Around 20% of global oil flows through that channel.
🤨 If Trump is serious about regime change and Iran keeps hitting neighboring states, while Saudi signals it could join and OPEC meets to potentially boost production and stabilize oil flows, that points to preparation for a longer conflict, not a brief exchange.
@Coin_Post
There is footage of a drone striking near the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. Another shows a drone hitting a residential high-rise in Bahrain. This is no longer confined to military targets, it is terrorism. The cost asymmetry is obvious. A relatively cheap drone can cause massive real estate damage and crush tourism-driven GDP in cities like Dubai.
Now the real question is whether this is a short exchange or the start of something much longer?
Iran confirmed its Defense Minister and a Revolutionary Guard commander got killed, brushing it off by saying losing a few commanders is “not such a big problem.” There is still no confirmed information on whether their leader Khamenei survived. Israeli assessments say the chances are slim, but nothing official yet.
What is confirmed is that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. Tankers are piling up. Oil majors and traders have suspended shipments. Around 20% of global oil flows through that channel.
@Coin_Post
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Israeli officials tell The Times of Israel that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in this morning’s airstrike, with his body reportedly found under the rubble.
🔍 There are no published photos yet, but prediction markets are pricing that he is "out" at over 90% probability.
Crypto reacted instantly. Prices pumped on the assumption that removing the head of the regime increases the odds of faster deescalation and potential regime change.
The most bullish path now is quick confirmation from Tehran, a successor more willing to negotiate on U.S. terms, and a successful deal with Trump.
🐻 The bearish path is the opposite. Prolonged chaos and a conflict that drags on for months.
*Update: Iran State TV Confirms Khamenei's Death
Crypto reacted instantly. Prices pumped on the assumption that removing the head of the regime increases the odds of faster deescalation and potential regime change.
The most bullish path now is quick confirmation from Tehran, a successor more willing to negotiate on U.S. terms, and a successful deal with Trump.
*Update: Iran State TV Confirms Khamenei's Death
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I recommend listening to Stan Druckenmiller’s recent interview with Morgan Stanley 🎧
This guy is one of the greatest macro investors ever, he compounded capital at insane rates (avg 30% a year) for decades with ZERO losing years, and helped run Soros’ fund during some of its biggest trades.
Here are a few takeaways:
💭 He said contrarianism is overrated, most of the time the crowd is right (like 80% of the time), the key is not being stubborn when that changes.
💭 Your edge is not predicting everything correctly, it’s pressing hard when you’re right and getting out fast when you’re wrong.
💭 Volatility is not something to fear, it’s often the only moment you get paid properly for acting on strong conviction.
💭 Technical analysis setups and obvious price or news signals used to work better in the past (now they don't). Once everyone learns the pattern the edge disappears.
💭 And one of his favorite indicators is simple: watch where the smartest young people go, he noticed top Stanford students shifting from crypto to AI long before that trade became mainstream.
📌 Save for later
@Coin_Post
This guy is one of the greatest macro investors ever, he compounded capital at insane rates (avg 30% a year) for decades with ZERO losing years, and helped run Soros’ fund during some of its biggest trades.
Here are a few takeaways:
@Coin_Post
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What Is “Atoms vs Bits”? 🧐
“Atoms vs Bits” is a framework popularized by Citrini Research describing a capital rotation from digital businesses into physical industries. It reflects a shift in investor focus toward scarcity and real-world constraints in the AI era.
💻 Bits refer to software businesses such as SaaS platforms, fintech, marketplaces, and digital advertising. These companies scaled easily and commanded high multiples over the past decade.
But rapid advances in AI have introduced uncertainty around their long-term moats and pricing power, which has pressured valuations.
🏭 Atoms refer to physical industries like energy, mining, materials, aerospace, and grid infrastructure. These sectors are limited by supply chains, permitting, expertise, and capital intensity. Capacity cannot be expanded quickly, and production often takes years to scale.
🔄 The rotation toward atoms is driven by rising AI-related demand for physical inputs such as power, copper, electrical steel, and nuclear fuel infrastructure.
At the same time, uncertainty around software defensibility has increased. Investors are reallocating toward businesses with tangible constraints and pricing power.
#FAQ
“Atoms vs Bits” is a framework popularized by Citrini Research describing a capital rotation from digital businesses into physical industries. It reflects a shift in investor focus toward scarcity and real-world constraints in the AI era.
But rapid advances in AI have introduced uncertainty around their long-term moats and pricing power, which has pressured valuations.
At the same time, uncertainty around software defensibility has increased. Investors are reallocating toward businesses with tangible constraints and pricing power.
#FAQ
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Markets are acting like World War 3 isn’t happening
Even as the conflict in the Middle East escalates and Trump warns “It is going to get even less safe. We haven’t even started to hit them hard. The big wave hasn’t happened yet. The big one is coming soon,” prices are not pricing in catastrophe🤷♀️
🟢 Gold and oil did spike initially, but half of today’s crude oil futures pump has already retraced.
🟢 The S&P 500 opened in the red, then erased the dump and is now green on the day.
🟢 Bitcoin and other speculative assets are pumping.
🟢 Even the Tel Aviv stock exchange is trading at new all-time highs.
🤔 JPMorgan today said rising Iran tensions are a buying opportunity, not a reason to exit stocks.
This tells you what traders think: a quick resolution is coming soon, not a long grinding war.
@Coin_Post
Even as the conflict in the Middle East escalates and Trump warns “It is going to get even less safe. We haven’t even started to hit them hard. The big wave hasn’t happened yet. The big one is coming soon,” prices are not pricing in catastrophe
This tells you what traders think: a quick resolution is coming soon, not a long grinding war.
@Coin_Post
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Sector Rotation Through the Business Cycle 🟡
Sector business cycle seasonality describes how different parts of the market tend to outperform or underperform depending on where the economy stands. The cycle moves through recovery, expansion, slowdown, and recession as growth accelerates and then decelerates.
🔄 Stock market sectors group companies with similar drivers. Some rely heavily on economic expansion, others provide essential services that are less tied to growth. As economic conditions shift, leadership tends to rotate among these groups.
🟢 In early recoveries, capital typically flows into growth-sensitive areas as activity rebounds.
🟢 During expansion, broader participation usually follows rising profits.
🟠 As growth decelerates, defensive sectors often outperform.
🔴 In recession phases, stable demand and predictable cash flows tend to hold up better relative to cyclical businesses.
👉 Today we see some real examples of this dynamic. Software and communication sectors, which were strong during the prior expansion, are now in bear market. At the same time, more defensive and real-world sectors have been relatively resilient.
The attached image is a cheat sheet showing how sector leadership has historically rotated across cycle phases. It does not predict exact turning points, but it highlights tendencies in relative performance that emerge as economic momentum changes.
I believe the economy today is shifting from a slowdown into a recession phase, as shown in the chart. The recent strength in consumer staples over the past three months is consistent with that transition❗️
#FAQ
Sector business cycle seasonality describes how different parts of the market tend to outperform or underperform depending on where the economy stands. The cycle moves through recovery, expansion, slowdown, and recession as growth accelerates and then decelerates.
The attached image is a cheat sheet showing how sector leadership has historically rotated across cycle phases. It does not predict exact turning points, but it highlights tendencies in relative performance that emerge as economic momentum changes.
I believe the economy today is shifting from a slowdown into a recession phase, as shown in the chart. The recent strength in consumer staples over the past three months is consistent with that transition
#FAQ
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The U.S. Dollar Index is up 4% from its January lows 📈
it means USD is trading higher against a basket of major currencies and it looks like the dollar is still the default hedge against chaos...
Every time headlines heat up, money runs into USD. The latest Middle East escalation just reinforced that pattern. Funds move into Treasuries, money market funds, and dollar cash. Demand rises, the dollar strengthens.
🇺🇸 There is also a structural reason. US interest rates are higher. US growth is holding up better than Europe’s. At the same time, Europe is more exposed to energy shocks. Europe feels oil price spikes way harder than the U.S. That makes EUR less attractive in a risk-off environment.
So what should you hold, USD, EUR or anything else?
👉 Short term, USD. The setup still favors dollar strength: geopolitical risk, rate differentials, and weaker European data. As long as those remain in place, the dollar has support.
If you live and spend in euros and your horizon is years, you don’t need to panic-swap everything. But if you are positioning for the next few 6-12 months, the dollar is the cleaner defensive play right now.
@Coin_Post
it means USD is trading higher against a basket of major currencies and it looks like the dollar is still the default hedge against chaos...
Every time headlines heat up, money runs into USD. The latest Middle East escalation just reinforced that pattern. Funds move into Treasuries, money market funds, and dollar cash. Demand rises, the dollar strengthens.
So what should you hold, USD, EUR or anything else?
If you live and spend in euros and your horizon is years, you don’t need to panic-swap everything. But if you are positioning for the next few 6-12 months, the dollar is the cleaner defensive play right now.
@Coin_Post
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Trump says the US will end all trade with Spain ❌
He is also threatening an embargo after Spain denied permission to use jointly operated bases for strikes on Iran.
🙊 He said he has the “right to stop everything that has to do with Spain” and instructed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to “cut off all dealings with Spain.”
He also claimed the US could use Spanish bases anyway if it wanted to "just fly in and use it"lol , and added that he is “not happy” with the UK for being in the same unhelpful category.
💰 US–Spain trade is meaningful. The US exports about $26.1 billion in goods to Spain each year and imports roughly $21.3 billion. An embargo would hit supply chains, and add another layer of economic stress on top of an already fragile geopolitical backdrop.
@Coin_Post
He is also threatening an embargo after Spain denied permission to use jointly operated bases for strikes on Iran.
He also claimed the US could use Spanish bases anyway if it wanted to "just fly in and use it"
@Coin_Post
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Bitcoin is showing clear strength today, up about 6.7% over the last 24h 🔼
Price has pushed back into the key resistance zone that capped previous attempts higher. The market spent weeks compressing below it, almost like a ball kept under water. What happens here will likely set the tone for the next few months.
📈 If BTC breaks this level and manages to hold above it on a weekly close, the path toward the 77k–79k area opens up. The only obvious risk to that scenario would be a serious escalation in the Iran conflict.
📉 If the breakout fails, the more likely outcome is a continuation of the 63k–70k range. In a weaker scenario, price could even drift back toward the February lows.
There is also the classic trap: price briefly breaks above resistance, triggers breakout buyers and hits clusters of obvious stop-losses from short positions, only to reverse sharply after that liquidity is taken🔽
I am leaning toward the second scenario, with the possibility of a fake breakout to sweep liquidity. But keep in mind that positive news from the Middle East could change everything
@Coin_Post
Price has pushed back into the key resistance zone that capped previous attempts higher. The market spent weeks compressing below it, almost like a ball kept under water. What happens here will likely set the tone for the next few months.
There is also the classic trap: price briefly breaks above resistance, triggers breakout buyers and hits clusters of obvious stop-losses from short positions, only to reverse sharply after that liquidity is taken
I am leaning toward the second scenario, with the possibility of a fake breakout to sweep liquidity. But keep in mind that positive news from the Middle East could change everything
@Coin_Post
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A hedge fund called Situational Awareness pulled off one of the craziest runs in tech investing 🔼
In about a year, the fund reportedly grew from $1B to $5.5B in assets, with +47% performance in the first half of 2025, massively outperforming the S&P.
The fund is run by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a 24-year-old based in San Francisco. He previously worked on OpenAI’s Superalignment team. After leaving OpenAI he wrote a viral manifesto about the coming AGI race and launched this fund around the same thesis.
🤖 The strategy is: bet on the physical infrastructure required for AI. If AI capabilities keep scaling, the real bottlenecks become power generation, datacenters, compute hosting, chips and networking.
That thesis shows up clearly in the portfolio: heavy exposure to power generation, compute hosting and bitcoin miners being repurposed for AI datacenters, along with connectivity and semiconductor suppliers.
@Coin_Post
In about a year, the fund reportedly grew from $1B to $5.5B in assets, with +47% performance in the first half of 2025, massively outperforming the S&P.
The fund is run by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a 24-year-old based in San Francisco. He previously worked on OpenAI’s Superalignment team. After leaving OpenAI he wrote a viral manifesto about the coming AGI race and launched this fund around the same thesis.
That thesis shows up clearly in the portfolio: heavy exposure to power generation, compute hosting and bitcoin miners being repurposed for AI datacenters, along with connectivity and semiconductor suppliers.
@Coin_Post
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Interesting divergence in global markets right now 🔍
📉 Most stock markets sold off after the US and Israel began bombing Iran. Yet the US market and Israel’s market held up, with the Tel Aviv index even printing a new all-time highs.
It is also surprising that Bitcoin is showing strength right now, when the dollar is rising and risk assets should be selling off🤨
Looking under the hood, the S&P 500 strength is mostly coming from tech. Relative performance data shows the sector doing the heavy lifting.
🔍 If you want to see which sectors are actually carrying an index and compare valuation metrics like P/E, PEG, or P/S, I like to use this website for that kind of breakdown.
@Coin_Post
It is also surprising that Bitcoin is showing strength right now, when the dollar is rising and risk assets should be selling off
Looking under the hood, the S&P 500 strength is mostly coming from tech. Relative performance data shows the sector doing the heavy lifting.
@Coin_Post
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Energy Markets Are Breaking 🛢
The chart you see above is not a microcap memecoin, this is Singapore jet fuel futures. Since the war in Iran began, jet fuel prices in Asia have surged more than 140%.
📈 This market reacts fast to supply shocks because inventories are thin and disruptions show up immediately in pricing. And oh yes, there are all sorts of disruptions right now:
🔴 Tankers are piling up as insurers pull war-risk coverage for the Strait of Hormuz.
🔴 LNG shipping rates jumped from $40k to $300k per day.
🔴 China has told refiners to stop exporting fuel.
🔴 Qatar halted LNG production, effectively halting 20% of global LNG trade.
🔴 Saudi Arabia shut part of the Ras Tanura complex.
🔴 Iraq shut down one of the world’s largest oil fields.
🔴 India’s Mangalore Refinery has halted fuel exports.
Markets are pricing a prolonged disruption of oil and gas logistics. If Hormuz remains constrained, we have a typical inflationary cascade: First, fuel price spikes, then shipping costs hit consumer goods, and then heating and electricity costs surge.
If this situation lasts long enough central banks around the world will face renewed inflation pressure, they will have to raise interest rates → slower growth → recession risk → stocks and crypto will go down😱
@Coin_Post
The chart you see above is not a microcap memecoin, this is Singapore jet fuel futures. Since the war in Iran began, jet fuel prices in Asia have surged more than 140%.
Markets are pricing a prolonged disruption of oil and gas logistics. If Hormuz remains constrained, we have a typical inflationary cascade: First, fuel price spikes, then shipping costs hit consumer goods, and then heating and electricity costs surge.
If this situation lasts long enough central banks around the world will face renewed inflation pressure, they will have to raise interest rates → slower growth → recession risk → stocks and crypto will go down
@Coin_Post
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Coin Post – Money, Investments, Bitcoin
Bitcoin is showing clear strength today, up about 6.7% over the last 24h 🔼 Price has pushed back into the key resistance zone that capped previous attempts higher. The market spent weeks compressing below it, almost like a ball kept under water. What happens…
Bitcoin is down about 5.1% today, with price barely holding above 68k 📉
The move looks exactly like the liquidity sweep above 71k I talked about earlier. Price briefly pushed into the resistance zone, cleared the obvious stop-loss clusters, and quickly dropped back into the February range.
🕯 Going into the next weeks, I expect continued Thursday–Friday volatility. Trump has repeatedly made geopolitical announcements after the US market close, which tends to hit risk assets once liquidity thins out.
This week’s BTC rally also looked mechanically driven. There was a large buildup of high-leverage short positions, and once those started getting liquidated the move accelerated. Fundamentally, the macro backdrop still argues for caution while the Iran conflict drags on.
The key level below is the 63k–64k zone (blue). A retest there looks likely. If that support fails on negative headlines, the market could quickly move into the next leg of price discovery lower📉
@Coin_Post
The move looks exactly like the liquidity sweep above 71k I talked about earlier. Price briefly pushed into the resistance zone, cleared the obvious stop-loss clusters, and quickly dropped back into the February range.
This week’s BTC rally also looked mechanically driven. There was a large buildup of high-leverage short positions, and once those started getting liquidated the move accelerated. Fundamentally, the macro backdrop still argues for caution while the Iran conflict drags on.
The key level below is the 63k–64k zone (blue). A retest there looks likely. If that support fails on negative headlines, the market could quickly move into the next leg of price discovery lower
@Coin_Post
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What Is the Price-to-Free Cash Flow (P/FCF) Ratio 📊
The Price-to-Free Cash Flow (P/FCF) ratio measures how much investors are paying for the cash a company actually generates. It is calculated by dividing market capitalization by free cash flow, or by dividing price per share by free cash flow per share.
💸 Free cash flow represents the cash left after a company covers operating expenses and capital expenditures. This is the money that can be used for dividends, buybacks, debt reduction, or reinvestment.
A lower P/FCF ratio means investors are paying less for each dollar of cash generation. A higher ratio reflects expectations of stronger future growth or improving profitability.
🤔 Many investors prefer P/FCF over P/E because earnings can be affected by accounting adjustments. Free cash flow focuses on the actual cash produced by the business.
The ratio works best when comparing companies within the same industry. Businesses with stable cash flows often trade at higher multiples, while companies with volatile cash generation trade lower.
Examples from the S&P 500 with very low P/FCF ratios today:
🟢 Interactive Brokers ($IBKR) — P/FCF ≈ 1.23
🟢 Synchrony Financial ($SYF) — P/FCF ≈ 2.35
🟢 MetLife ($MET) — P/FCF ≈ 2.59
Extremely low ratios are not always a bargain. They often appear when the market expects cyclical declines, regulatory pressure, or unstable future cash flow❗️
#FAQ
The Price-to-Free Cash Flow (P/FCF) ratio measures how much investors are paying for the cash a company actually generates. It is calculated by dividing market capitalization by free cash flow, or by dividing price per share by free cash flow per share.
A lower P/FCF ratio means investors are paying less for each dollar of cash generation. A higher ratio reflects expectations of stronger future growth or improving profitability.
The ratio works best when comparing companies within the same industry. Businesses with stable cash flows often trade at higher multiples, while companies with volatile cash generation trade lower.
Examples from the S&P 500 with very low P/FCF ratios today:
Extremely low ratios are not always a bargain. They often appear when the market expects cyclical declines, regulatory pressure, or unstable future cash flow
#FAQ
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Short guide to funding rate arbitrage 👇
I explained what funding rates are in a this post. You can arbitrage them by going long and short the same asset on different venues where funding rates diverge. You can run a delta-neutral position and collect the spread.
How to monitor these opportunities:
💬 For Lighter DEX, use their quant tool
💬 For Variational DEX, use Varifunding
💬 You can also use Coinglass or EVplus
But funding differences can flip quickly, sometimes within hours. That’s why it’s important to check historical persistence before entering the trade. That's why you need to use LorisTools to backtest funding gaps.
1️⃣ Choose the token
2️⃣ Filter only the exchanges you want
3️⃣ Set at least a 7-day window
4️⃣ Check if the funding spread is consistent or just a short anomaly.
Crypto funding markets, especially on DEXs with low OI and volume, are still highly inefficient, which means small traders can often capture high APR from funding spreads
I found a clear illustration on $DYDX funding rates between Binance and the Lighter DEX (see screenshot above).
📈 On the chart, Binance (yellow) funding stays much closer to positive, while Lighter (blue) is on average much lower 📉
That means you can short DYDX on Binance and go long DYDX on Lighter, collecting funding while keeping the position delta-neutral and rebalancing when needed.
📌 Save for later
@Coin_Post
I explained what funding rates are in a this post. You can arbitrage them by going long and short the same asset on different venues where funding rates diverge. You can run a delta-neutral position and collect the spread.
How to monitor these opportunities:
But funding differences can flip quickly, sometimes within hours. That’s why it’s important to check historical persistence before entering the trade. That's why you need to use LorisTools to backtest funding gaps.
Crypto funding markets, especially on DEXs with low OI and volume, are still highly inefficient, which means small traders can often capture high APR from funding spreads
I found a clear illustration on $DYDX funding rates between Binance and the Lighter DEX (see screenshot above).
That means you can short DYDX on Binance and go long DYDX on Lighter, collecting funding while keeping the position delta-neutral and rebalancing when needed.
@Coin_Post
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