empiricism is the key to progress
rationalism is the key to sounding smart
rationalism is the key to sounding smart
Continuous Learning_Startup & Investment
https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/generative-ai-act-two/ This moment has been decades in the making. Six decades of Moore’s Law have given us the compute horsepower to process exaflops of data. Four decades of the internet (accelerated by COVID) have given…
CPU/GPU는 우리에게 Computing Power로 데이터를 연산할 수 있는 능력을, 인터넷은 수많은 데이터를, 모바일과 클라우드는 모든 사람의 손에 쥘 수 있는 컴퓨터를 제공했기 때문에 Gen AI기반의 새로운 시대가 열릴 수 있었다. 마치 지금까지 기술의 발전이 AI로 새롭게 열릴 시대의 준비운동이였던 것처럼요.
Act 1은 기술이 재밌어서 사람들이 사용했다면 Act2는 진짜 문제를 해결해주는 시대다.
- 과거 인터넷도 처음엔 재미(Netscape)에서 시작해서 Amazon, Facebook, Google처럼 기능 중심의 서비스들이 나왔던 것 같아요.
- 스마트폰 카메라도 사진을 찍는 기술에서, Instagram이 사진을 공유할 수 있는 서비스를 만들면서 기존에 카메라가 못 풀던 어려움(외로움)을 해결?!해줬다고 생각합니다.
Moat은 데이터가 아니라 고객이다.
- 결국 데이터를 계속 만들어내는 주체는 고객이기 때문에 고객을 얼마나 많이 Lock-in(고객이 일상에서 그 제품을 쓰느냐)가 더 많은 데이터, 좋은 모델, 더 많은 고객을 락인하는 사이클을 만들 수 있는 것 같습니다.
모델 인프라 만들거라면 유저가 제일 많이 있는 Bay에 가서 고객을 만나면서 제품을 만드는 게 좋을 것 같다.
과거 스마트폰이 위치/카메라/인터넷 등 새롭게 가능했던 기능들을 조합해서 Uber, Airbnb, Instagram, Whatsapp이 나왔던 것처럼 AI라서 나오는 새로운 변화들을 잘 살린 프러덕이 고객에게 가치를 제공할 수 있다.
- Generative Interface: AI는 Input 을 넣으면 원하는 Output을 주는 수준을 넘어서 사람과 대화하고 교감하는 듯한 느낌을 제공할 수 있다.
- Editing Experiences: 컴퓨터가 원하는 결과물을 가져오지 못했을 때 이에 대해서 가이드를 주고 수정할 수 있다. 마치 팀원들과 협업하듯이?
- Agent system: 컴퓨터와 다르게 AI가 무슨 답을 줄지 예상하기 어렵다. 장점이 될 수도 단점이 될 수도 있는 부분.
- System-wide optimization: 기존에 Software는 판단하는 부분을 유저에게 모두 위임했다면, AI는 Workflow자체를 재설계할 수 있고 사람의 판단이 들어가는 부분을 AI가 자동화하되 사람에게 코칭받는 식으로 설계해볼 수 있다. 혹은 그런 코칭조차 AI들이 할 수 있는 구조도 나올 수 있다.
Research의 시대에서 Engineering과 제품의 시대로 넘어왔고 GPU가격은 여전히 비싸지만 그래도 몇년안에 해소가 된다면 좀 더 다양한 시도들이 가능해지지 않을까 하는 기대가 되네요.
Act 1은 기술이 재밌어서 사람들이 사용했다면 Act2는 진짜 문제를 해결해주는 시대다.
- 과거 인터넷도 처음엔 재미(Netscape)에서 시작해서 Amazon, Facebook, Google처럼 기능 중심의 서비스들이 나왔던 것 같아요.
- 스마트폰 카메라도 사진을 찍는 기술에서, Instagram이 사진을 공유할 수 있는 서비스를 만들면서 기존에 카메라가 못 풀던 어려움(외로움)을 해결?!해줬다고 생각합니다.
Moat은 데이터가 아니라 고객이다.
- 결국 데이터를 계속 만들어내는 주체는 고객이기 때문에 고객을 얼마나 많이 Lock-in(고객이 일상에서 그 제품을 쓰느냐)가 더 많은 데이터, 좋은 모델, 더 많은 고객을 락인하는 사이클을 만들 수 있는 것 같습니다.
모델 인프라 만들거라면 유저가 제일 많이 있는 Bay에 가서 고객을 만나면서 제품을 만드는 게 좋을 것 같다.
과거 스마트폰이 위치/카메라/인터넷 등 새롭게 가능했던 기능들을 조합해서 Uber, Airbnb, Instagram, Whatsapp이 나왔던 것처럼 AI라서 나오는 새로운 변화들을 잘 살린 프러덕이 고객에게 가치를 제공할 수 있다.
- Generative Interface: AI는 Input 을 넣으면 원하는 Output을 주는 수준을 넘어서 사람과 대화하고 교감하는 듯한 느낌을 제공할 수 있다.
- Editing Experiences: 컴퓨터가 원하는 결과물을 가져오지 못했을 때 이에 대해서 가이드를 주고 수정할 수 있다. 마치 팀원들과 협업하듯이?
- Agent system: 컴퓨터와 다르게 AI가 무슨 답을 줄지 예상하기 어렵다. 장점이 될 수도 단점이 될 수도 있는 부분.
- System-wide optimization: 기존에 Software는 판단하는 부분을 유저에게 모두 위임했다면, AI는 Workflow자체를 재설계할 수 있고 사람의 판단이 들어가는 부분을 AI가 자동화하되 사람에게 코칭받는 식으로 설계해볼 수 있다. 혹은 그런 코칭조차 AI들이 할 수 있는 구조도 나올 수 있다.
Research의 시대에서 Engineering과 제품의 시대로 넘어왔고 GPU가격은 여전히 비싸지만 그래도 몇년안에 해소가 된다면 좀 더 다양한 시도들이 가능해지지 않을까 하는 기대가 되네요.
👍2
https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/follow-the-gpus-perspective/
There is a large opportunity for the startup ecosystem to fill this hole. Our goal is to “follow the GPUs” and find the next generation of startups that leverage AI technology to create real end-customer value. We want to invest in these companies.
For startups, the takeaway is clear: As a community, we need to shift our thinking away from infrastructure and towards end-customer value. Happy customers are a fundamental requirement of every great business.
There is a large opportunity for the startup ecosystem to fill this hole. Our goal is to “follow the GPUs” and find the next generation of startups that leverage AI technology to create real end-customer value. We want to invest in these companies.
For startups, the takeaway is clear: As a community, we need to shift our thinking away from infrastructure and towards end-customer value. Happy customers are a fundamental requirement of every great business.
Sequoia Capital
AI’s $200B Question
GPU capacity is getting overbuilt. Long-term, this is good for startups. Short-term, things could get messy. Follow the GPUs to find out why.
My latest story: Other startups love Linear. Will bigger companies, too?
A maker of project software popular with other startups like Cohere and Ramp, Linear has raised $35M in Series B funding led by Accel. It's now valued at about $400M, sources told me for Forbes.
Linear's unusual in that it was already profitable for two years and had negative net burn -- meaning it has more money in the bank than it's raised. Until recently, it had just one salesperson, and it's spent just $36K on marketing over its four years of existence, CEO Karri Saarinen told me.
Founded by 3 Finns and fully-remote, Linear added former First Round Capital partner and Stripe and Notion veteran Cristina Cordova to lead go-to market earlier this year. A who's who of other tech leaders like Dylan Field, Patrick Collison, Dick Costolo and Claire Hughes Johnson are personal backers.
Now Linear is looking to push into bigger businesses, while expanding its tools to cover more points in the product life cycle -- something that excited Accel's Miles Clements. Customers like Job van der Voort of Remote and Anil Varanasi of Meter told me they're big fans... but the question is whether Linear can grow up without losing its magic.
해시태그#startups 해시태그#venturecapital 해시태그#funding 해시태그#fundraising 해시태그#VC 해시태그#developers 해시태그#developertools 해시태그#engineering 해시태그#software 해시태그#productdevelopment 해시태그#product 해시태그#projectmanagement 해시태그#productledgrowth 해시태그#PLG 해시태그#tech 해시태그#technology 해시태그#remotework 해시태그#DevOps
A maker of project software popular with other startups like Cohere and Ramp, Linear has raised $35M in Series B funding led by Accel. It's now valued at about $400M, sources told me for Forbes.
Linear's unusual in that it was already profitable for two years and had negative net burn -- meaning it has more money in the bank than it's raised. Until recently, it had just one salesperson, and it's spent just $36K on marketing over its four years of existence, CEO Karri Saarinen told me.
Founded by 3 Finns and fully-remote, Linear added former First Round Capital partner and Stripe and Notion veteran Cristina Cordova to lead go-to market earlier this year. A who's who of other tech leaders like Dylan Field, Patrick Collison, Dick Costolo and Claire Hughes Johnson are personal backers.
Now Linear is looking to push into bigger businesses, while expanding its tools to cover more points in the product life cycle -- something that excited Accel's Miles Clements. Customers like Job van der Voort of Remote and Anil Varanasi of Meter told me they're big fans... but the question is whether Linear can grow up without losing its magic.
해시태그#startups 해시태그#venturecapital 해시태그#funding 해시태그#fundraising 해시태그#VC 해시태그#developers 해시태그#developertools 해시태그#engineering 해시태그#software 해시태그#productdevelopment 해시태그#product 해시태그#projectmanagement 해시태그#productledgrowth 해시태그#PLG 해시태그#tech 해시태그#technology 해시태그#remotework 해시태그#DevOps
Good heuristic for creating SaaS startups: find a commonly used spreadsheet (eg cap tables) and turn it into a dashboard (eg Carta). Replace email attachments with workflows. Spreadsheets are the long tail of datasets that don’t have their own SaaS tool yet.
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1078755080478715904
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1078755080478715904
X (formerly Twitter)
David Sacks (@DavidSacks) on X
Good heuristic for creating SaaS startups: find a commonly used spreadsheet (eg cap tables) and turn it into a dashboard (eg Carta). Replace email attachments with workflows. Spreadsheets are the long tail of datasets that don’t have their own SaaS tool yet.
https://twitter.com/pitdesi/status/1705614393235386471?s=20
The #1 App right now is “Lapse” - a photo sharing Dispo-meets-Snapchat.
You will get a text message from a friend to download the app. It’s bc they require you text 5 friends to use the app. I felt dirty.
It got to the top of the App Store on a pyramid scheme.
Clientside SMS convert at around 30%. 5 invites x 0.3 = 1.5 K-Factor
The #1 App right now is “Lapse” - a photo sharing Dispo-meets-Snapchat.
You will get a text message from a friend to download the app. It’s bc they require you text 5 friends to use the app. I felt dirty.
It got to the top of the App Store on a pyramid scheme.
Clientside SMS convert at around 30%. 5 invites x 0.3 = 1.5 K-Factor
X (formerly Twitter)
Sheel Mohnot (@pitdesi) on X
Oops my tweet mentioned it’s the top app but showed a screenshot of the photo category. It’s actually the top app across all apps right now
https://hellometer.io/
According to operations research, for every 7 seconds of improvement in service speed, restaurants see about a 1% increase in top-line revenue. The average quick service restaurant generates about $1.9 million in revenue per year, so a 47-second improvement from Hellometer translates to approximately $130,000 in added revenue per location. Hellometer has been in business for three years and is a Y Combinator-backed company. It is currently under contract or letter of intent for over 400 locations worldwide, including Hardees, Dairy Queen, Dunkin', Subway, and Church's Chicken restaurants
According to operations research, for every 7 seconds of improvement in service speed, restaurants see about a 1% increase in top-line revenue. The average quick service restaurant generates about $1.9 million in revenue per year, so a 47-second improvement from Hellometer translates to approximately $130,000 in added revenue per location. Hellometer has been in business for three years and is a Y Combinator-backed company. It is currently under contract or letter of intent for over 400 locations worldwide, including Hardees, Dairy Queen, Dunkin', Subway, and Church's Chicken restaurants
Continuous Learning_Startup & Investment
Photo
Answer from Bard.
The image shows the evolution of the world's economic center of gravity from 1 AD to 2025. It is clear that the center of gravity has been shifting eastward over time, from the Mediterranean region in 1 AD to China in 2025.
Key details from the image:
• In 1 AD, the economic center of gravity was located in the Mediterranean region, near the center of the Roman Empire.
• By 1500, the center of gravity had shifted westward to Europe, as Europe became the dominant economic power in the world.
• In the 19th century, the center of gravity began to shift eastward again, as the United States and Japan emerged as major economic powers.
• In the 20th century, the shift eastward accelerated, as China experienced rapid economic growth.
• In 2025, the economic center of gravity is projected to be located in China, reflecting the country's growing economic importance in the world.
Implications of the shift in the economic center of gravity:
• The shift in the economic center of gravity has had a significant impact on the global economy. For example, it has led to increased trade and investment between Asia and the rest of the world.
• The shift has also led to a rise in the living standards of millions of people in Asia.
• The shift is likely to continue in the future, as Asia is projected to remain the world's fastest-growing economic region.
Additional details:
• The image shows that the shift in the economic center of gravity has not been linear. For example, the center of gravity shifted westward from 1500 to 1820, even as the global economy was becoming increasingly interconnected. This suggests that there are a variety of factors that can influence the location of the economic center of gravity, including political and technological changes.
• The image also shows that the economic center of gravity is not always located in a single country. For example, in the 20th century, the center of gravity was located between the United States and Japan. This suggests that the global economy is becoming increasingly multipolar.
Overall, the image provides a valuable visual representation of the long-term shift in the world's economic center of gravity. It is clear that the center of gravity has been shifting eastward over time, and this shift is likely to continue in the future.
The image shows the evolution of the world's economic center of gravity from 1 AD to 2025. It is clear that the center of gravity has been shifting eastward over time, from the Mediterranean region in 1 AD to China in 2025.
Key details from the image:
• In 1 AD, the economic center of gravity was located in the Mediterranean region, near the center of the Roman Empire.
• By 1500, the center of gravity had shifted westward to Europe, as Europe became the dominant economic power in the world.
• In the 19th century, the center of gravity began to shift eastward again, as the United States and Japan emerged as major economic powers.
• In the 20th century, the shift eastward accelerated, as China experienced rapid economic growth.
• In 2025, the economic center of gravity is projected to be located in China, reflecting the country's growing economic importance in the world.
Implications of the shift in the economic center of gravity:
• The shift in the economic center of gravity has had a significant impact on the global economy. For example, it has led to increased trade and investment between Asia and the rest of the world.
• The shift has also led to a rise in the living standards of millions of people in Asia.
• The shift is likely to continue in the future, as Asia is projected to remain the world's fastest-growing economic region.
Additional details:
• The image shows that the shift in the economic center of gravity has not been linear. For example, the center of gravity shifted westward from 1500 to 1820, even as the global economy was becoming increasingly interconnected. This suggests that there are a variety of factors that can influence the location of the economic center of gravity, including political and technological changes.
• The image also shows that the economic center of gravity is not always located in a single country. For example, in the 20th century, the center of gravity was located between the United States and Japan. This suggests that the global economy is becoming increasingly multipolar.
Overall, the image provides a valuable visual representation of the long-term shift in the world's economic center of gravity. It is clear that the center of gravity has been shifting eastward over time, and this shift is likely to continue in the future.