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Continuous Learning_Startup & Investment
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We journey together through the captivating realms of entrepreneurship, investment, life, and technology. This is my chronicle of exploration, where I capture and share the lessons that shape our world. Join us and let's never stop learning!
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전종현의 인사이트
디스커버리형 커머스 (핀둬둬, 바이트댄스) 또한 AI가 만들어낸 작품인데, 이 시대에서는 어떤 통용되는 BM이 등장할 것인가. 참고로 이 글은 2020년도 글. https://medium.com/@goyalv89/browsing-e-commerce-an-untapped-250b-opportunity-d793e8556f86
https://medium.com/@goyalv89/browsing-e-commerce-an-untapped-250b-opportunity-d793e8556f86

Browsing commerce: 쇼핑하러 간 경험을 집에서 생생하게.

Discovery: Current search-based models work for electronics and books, but not so much for apparel or home décor where users seek an element of inspiration and discovery. Users express their desire for discovery on platforms such as Pinterest and Instagram Explore instead.
Fun: Shopping malls offer various entertainment options such as movies, gaming, eating, social gathering etc. which are missing in current models.
Social: Most of our purchase decisions are driven by recommendations from our friends and family but current e-commerce models do not offer ways to integrate those recommendations.
Personalization: Though our Google search results and Facebook newsfeed are highly personalized, our Amazon homepage is still generic.

Key characteristics of players in browsing e-commerce

The KPIs required to win in the search based e-commerce and browsing e-commerce models are different. While Amazon might be laser focused on 1) delivery time 2) SKU count 3) conversion; PDD might be laser focused on 1) user engagement 2) churn 3) SKU count. Amazon doesn’t look like making an effort to increase engagement on its app, whereas PDD is optimizing for high DAU/ MAU and time spent.

Platforms that can combine both entertainment and e-commerce will win this category. As proven in China, entertainment could be in the form of social network, live streaming, user videos, product build videos or influencer content. On the e-commerce side, categories such as apparel, home products or electronic accessories should be relevant. SKUs that are low intent, low price and non-branded would be more likely to succeed.
Continuous Learning_Startup & Investment
https://medium.com/@goyalv89/browsing-e-commerce-an-untapped-250b-opportunity-d793e8556f86 Browsing commerce: 쇼핑하러 간 경험을 집에서 생생하게. Discovery: Current search-based models work for electronics and books, but not so much for apparel or home décor where users…
Over the past three years, Pinduoduo (PDD) has experienced significant success, becoming one of China's largest e-commerce platforms. The company's success can be attributed to several key factors, including its unique business model, growth strategy, and expansion efforts.****Business Model****Pinduoduo operates on a marketplace business model, matching buyers with suppliers on its platform and earning revenue from online marketing services, transaction services, and merchandise sales**[2](https://productmint.com/pinduoduo-business-model-how-does-pinduoduo-make-money/)**. The platform's success is largely due to its group buying feature, which allows users to form groups and purchase items at low prices**[7](https://appscrip.com/blog/pinduoduo-business-model/)**. This model has proven to be highly effective, with Pinduoduo registering staggering growth rates, even faster than established counterparts like Alibaba and JD.com**[7](https://appscrip.com/blog/pinduoduo-business-model/)**.
Growth Strategy in China**Pinduoduo's growth strategy has focused on offering group deals, similar to Groupon, where users can form groups and get deals of up to 90% cheaper on a wide range of products**[4](https://kickstartsidehustle.com/pinduoduo-growth-strategy-0-to-60b-valuation-in-3-years/). The company has also integrated social media platforms into its strategy, encouraging users to share products with their networks, effectively lowering customer acquisition costs**[12](https://thestrategystory.com/2021/05/13/pinduoduo-business-model-strategy/)**. Additionally, Pinduoduo has targeted lower-tier cities in China, offering discount products and capitalizing on the initial growth spurt to expand into other product categories**[6](https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/05/30/is-it-too-late-to-buy-pinduoduo-pdd-stock/)**.
Expansion in the US**In September 2022, Pinduoduo launched its US online shopping site, Temu, marking its first major push overseas**[3](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/02/chinas-e-commerce-giant-pinduoduo-launches-us-shopping-site-temu.html). This expansion could potentially challenge US e-commerce leader Amazon and provide new growth opportunities for Pinduoduo. However, it's important to note that the company may face challenges in the US market, such as increased competition and the need for significant marketing, R&D, and logistics investments**[9](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545385-pinduoduo-agtech-global-ambitions-long-term-growth)**.
Future Success**While Pinduoduo has experienced impressive growth in recent years, its future success will depend on several factors. The company is investing in agriculture technology in China and expanding into the US to drive growth**[9](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545385-pinduoduo-agtech-global-ambitions-long-term-growth). Additionally, Pinduoduo has started turning a profit, with its first-ever profitable quarter reported in August 2021**[2](https://productmint.com/pinduoduo-business-model-how-does-pinduoduo-make-money/)**. Analysts expect the company's operating margin to expand and its net income to surge by 57% in 2022**[11](https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/19/4-green-flags-for-pinduoduos-future/)**.However, it's important to consider the potential challenges Pinduoduo may face, such as China's regulatory environment, rising interest rates, and the need for continued innovation to stay ahead of competitors**[6](https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/05/30/is-it-too-late-to-buy-pinduoduo-pdd-stock/)**. While it's difficult to predict with certainty whether Pinduoduo will continue to succeed in the market, its unique business model, growth strategy, and expansion efforts provide a strong foundation for potential future success.

### Temu's Performance in the US

Since its launch in September 2022, Pinduoduo's US online shopping site, Temu, has experienced significant growth. In May 2023, Temu had over 100 million active users in the United States

[3](https://www.businessofapps.com/data/temu-statistics/)
Continuous Learning_Startup & Investment
https://medium.com/@goyalv89/browsing-e-commerce-an-untapped-250b-opportunity-d793e8556f86 Browsing commerce: 쇼핑하러 간 경험을 집에서 생생하게. Discovery: Current search-based models work for electronics and books, but not so much for apparel or home décor where users…
. According to Sensor Tower, Temu ranked among the top 10 shopping apps in the country

[1](https://www.modernretail.co/technology/pinduoduos-u-s-app-temu-is-growing-but-it-faces-a-tough-road-ahead/)

. In the week leading up to February 5, 2023, Temu recorded a gross merchandise volume exceeding $50 million

[13](https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3210831/chinese-firm-pdds-temu-budget-shopping-app-sees-surge-weekly-us-sales-ahead-biggest-campaign-during)

.Temu's aggressive customer acquisition strategy in the United States and Canada has contributed to its rapid growth

[2](https://thelowdown.momentum.asia/new-report-will-pinduoduos-temu-dethrone-amazon-in-us-market/)

. The company has reportedly set aside billions of dollars for marketing

[2](https://thelowdown.momentum.asia/new-report-will-pinduoduos-temu-dethrone-amazon-in-us-market/)

. In February 2023, Temu made a splash at the Super Bowl, the most-watched television event in the United States, with a 30-second advertisement noscriptd "Shop Like a Billionaire"

[6](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202302/14/WS63eadecca31057c47ebae977.html)

.Despite its early success, Temu faces challenges in the US market, such as intense competition and high marketing expenses

[12](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4548747-pinduoduo-finds-early-success-in-us-e-commerce-now-comes-the-hard-part)

. The company has been spending heavily on high-profile ads to grow its customer base, losing an average of $30 on each order placed on its site, primarily by subsidizing the cost of international shipping

[8](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/temu-takes-on-heavy-losses-to-win-u-s-customers)

. Temu's future growth will depend on its ability to unlock new consumer discretionary demand and take shares from brick-and-mortar spend or other recreational household budgets

[5](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4588874-how-big-can-pdd-holdings-temu-get)

.In conclusion, Temu has achieved notable growth in the US market since its launch. However, it faces challenges such as competition and high marketing expenses. Its future success will depend on its ability to continue attracting customers and effectively compete with established e-commerce giants like Amazon.
Neko Health, a healthcare startup co-founded by Spotify CEO Daniel Ek, has raised $65.4 million in a Series A funding round led by venture capital firm Lakestar, with participation from General Catalyst and Atomico2. The company, founded in 2018 and based in Stockholm, Sweden, focuses on proactive healthcare and offers a body scan that collects 50 million health data points using more than 70 sensors in about 10 minutes, followed by a physician visit2 4 .Neko Health aims to revolutionize healthcare pathways and processes by using artificial intelligence and sensor technology to develop a healthcare system that emphasizes patient care and disease prevention4 7. The company provides services such as body scans, skin scans, and cardiovascular examinations to detect and prevent serious illnesses4. The funding will be used to expand Neko Health's reach outside of Sweden and invest in research and development, clinical trials, and recruitment11. Notable investors joining the company's board include Skype co-founder Niklas Zennstrom and Klaus Hommels, founder of the venture capital firm Lakestar5.Neko Health's first medical center, which opened in Stockholm in February 2023, was fully booked within two hours, and 5,000 people were placed on a waiting list8. The company plans to use the funding to expand its services beyond its initial facility10.
MS State of business 2022 June
https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23864262/px1889-redacted.pdf

Microsoft's Azure cloud server business generated half the revenue of its primary rival, Amazon Web Services (AWS), in the 12 months ended June 2022. The internal documents revealing this information were briefly posted by federal antitrust regulators on a court website. This indicates that Azure's market share was smaller than some analyst firms had estimated, which could change investor perceptions of Microsoft's success in the cloud market.
The unredacted documents showed that Azure generated $34 billion in revenue over the 12-month period, compared to $72 billion by AWS
4
. This revelation suggests that Azure's market share in the cloud computing infrastructure business is several percentage points smaller than what most analyst firms had estimated.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/04/taylor-swift-eras-tour-set-to-earn-record-breaking-1-billion-dollars-in-sales.html

Taylor Swift is already one of the highest-paid entertainers in the world, but now it looks like her Eras Tour could be the highest-grossing tour of all time, earning a record-setting $1 billion in sales. Swift’s stadium concert tour — which features sprawling 40-song sets with elaborate staging, choreography and over a dozen costume changes — is expected to eclipse Elton John’s farewell tour in terms of gross revenue for tickets, merchandise and sponsorships, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

I thought I saw the wrong number and doubted my eyes. 공연 한번에 100억, 100번하면 1조… Wow..

Elton John — Farewell Yellow Brick Road Tour (2018-20, 22-present): $853 million
Ed Sheeran — The ÷ (Divide) Tour (2017-19): $776 million
U2 — U2 360° Tour (2009-11): $736 million
Guns N’ Roses — Not in This Lifetime... Tour (2016-19): $584 million
The Rolling Stones — A Bigger Bang Tour (2005-07): $558 million
The Rolling Stones — No Filter Tour (2017-19, 21): $547 million
Coldplay — A Head Full of Dreams Tour (2016-17): $524 million
Roger Waters — The Wall Live (2010-13): $459 million
AC/DC — Black Ice World Tour (2008-10): $442 million
Harry Styles — Love on Tour (2021-present):$418 million
Film and TV Profits Have Collapsed Over the Last Decade 3: Net income at the largest U.S. entertainment companies has dropped by more than 60% since 2013, indicating a significant decline in profitability in the film and television industry.

The film and TV industry has experienced a decline in profitability in recent years due to several factors:

1. Rise of streaming services: Platforms like Netflix, Amazon Prime, and Hulu have revolutionized the way people consume media, leading to a decrease in traditional revenue streams such as ticket sales and DVD purchases**[1](https://substreammagazine.com/2023/04/how-streaming-services-affect-the-film-industry-and-the-popularity-of-casinos-in-movies/)[4](https://everymoviehasalesson.com/blog/2023/1/the-impact-of-streaming-services-on-the-film-industry)[6](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/08/the-death-of-the-dvd-why-sales-dropped-more-than-86percent-in-13-years.html)**. As more people choose to watch content through streaming services, the demand for traditional film and TV distribution channels has decreased.
2. Increased competition: The rise of streaming services has also led to an increase in the number of original content being produced, resulting in greater competition for viewers' attention**[2](https://www.filmstro.com/blog/the-biggest-filmmaking-challenges-in-2023)[5](https://kievkelvin.com/blog/challenges-facing-the-film-industry/)**. This has made it more difficult for individual films and TV shows to stand out and generate significant profits.
3. High production costs: The cost of producing high-quality content has increased, making it more challenging for filmmakers to recoup their investments and turn a profit**[5](https://kievkelvin.com/blog/challenges-facing-the-film-industry/)**. Additionally, as streaming services prioritize producing their own original content, they may be less willing to invest in licensing content from other producers, further reducing potential revenue streams for filmmakers.
4. Changing audience consumption habits: The convenience and flexibility of streaming services have altered the way audiences consume content, with many people now preferring to watch films and TV shows at home rather than in theaters**[7](https://blog.filmtrack.com/industry-insights/in-the-press/streaming-platforms-and-their-impact-on-the-film-industry)**. This shift in consumption habits has contributed to the decline in profitability for the film and TV industry.
탁월함은 습관이지만, 실패도 마찬가지

매일 조금씩 개선하면 위대한 결과로 이끌 수 있다는 얘기를 많이 들음
이 유명한 조언은 우리 스스로에게 계속 전진하도록 푸시함
하지만, 이 이야기의 다른 면은 잘 얘기하지 않음
→ 방치/무시와 작은 실수가 계속 쌓이면 부정적인 결과로 이어질 수 있다는 것
내 삶을 되돌아 보면, 실제로 궤도를 벗어난 일들은 점진적인 무시와 수많은 작은 잘못된 선택의 결과였음
나는 약물에 하룻밤 사이에 중독된 것이 아님. 내가 건강과 안전보다 순간적인 즐거움을 우선시 했던 수백번의 순간을 통해서 였음
나는 하룻밤 사이에 과체중이 된 것이 아님. 장기적인 건강보다 즉각적인 만족을 선택한 수백번의 순간을 통해서였음
나는 하룻밤 사이에 관계를 망치지 않았음. 어려운 대화에 맞서고, 내 실수를 인정하거나, 누군가가 나보다 무언가를 더 잘하는 것을 인정하는 것보다 "편안함"을 선택한 수백번의 순간을 통해서 였음
이런 경험을 통해, 나쁜 습관을 피하는 것은 좋은 습관을 기르는 것만큼 중요하다는 것을 깨달았음
방치의 패턴을 인식하고 조기에 대처함으로써 더 큰 문제를 예방할 수 있음

Excellence is a habit, but so is failure
We often hear that making small incremental improvements every day can lead to great things. This popular piece of advice rings true, and it’s a powerful reminder to keep pushing ourselves forward.

But there’s another side to this story that we don’t discuss as often: how incremental neglect and small missteps can accumulate and lead to negative outcomes. Recognizing and addressing these patterns of neglect early can make a significant difference in preventing larger problems down the road.

Reflecting on my own life, I’ve noticed that most of the things that really went off-track were indeed consequences of incremental neglect and numerous small yet poor choices:

I didn’t become addicted to drugs overnight. It happened over hundreds of moments where I prioritized momentary pleasure over health and safety.
I didn’t become overweight overnight. It happened over hundreds of moments where I opted for immediate gratification over long-term health.
I didn’t ruin relationships overnight. It happened over hundreds of moments where I chose comfort over confronting difficult conversations, admitting my mistakes, or even just acknowledging that someone was better than me at something.
From these experiences, I’ve realized that avoiding bad habits is just as important as cultivating good habits.

To address these kinds of issues, we must become aware of our patterns of incremental neglect and then take deliberate steps to counteract them and foster healthier habits.

Written on April 5, 2023

https://awesomekling.github.io/Excellence-is-a-habit-but-so-is-failure/
👍4
LIMA 모델을 만든 기법을 실증한 사례들이 생겨나고 있는것 같습니다.

WizardLM 모델 파인튜닝에 사용된, 원본 Evol Instruct 데이터셋은 V1이 70K, V2가 190K 여건으로 구성되어 있습니다.

이번에 공개된 WizardLM V1.1은 1K의 데이터셋 만으로 파인튜닝 되었다고 합니다. 원본 Evol Instruct에서 큐레이션된 데이터셋일지, 새롭게 구성된 프롬프트로 얻은 데이터셋일지는 아직 공개된 바가 없어서 확실치 않습니다 (조만간 데이터셋과 그 방법을 공개한다고 하네요).

하지만 모델(13B)의 가중치는 이미 공개되어 있고, 벤치마크 성능은 WizardLM 30B V1.0과 유사한 수준으로 보입니다. 사실 LIMA 논문이 나왔을 때는 약간 의구심이 들기도 했는데요, 실제로 가능함을 보여주는 실제 사례들이 등장하면서 가능성이 있겠다는 생각이 드는군요.

예전부터 생각해왔듯이 "매우 고 품질"의 데이터가 필요하기는 하며, 사실 이 정도는 기업 차원에서는 쉽게 구축할 수 있을듯 합니다. 이미 LLaMA와 동일한 구조를 띈 "상업적 이용이 가능한" OpenLLaMA 및 XGen과 같은 기반 모델들이 나와있습니다. 1K 정도라면, 인력으로도 충분히 만들어낼 수 있는 수준이기 때문에, 조만간 GPT4의 개입 없이 실제 상업적 활용이 가능한 파인튜닝된 모델들이 속출할 것으로 예상됩니다.

당장 커뮤니티 차원에서도 데이터 만들기 품앗이를 해볼 수 있겠는데요. 일단은 GPT4로 데이터를 다량으로 만들기는 할 것인데, 이것을 사람이 큐레이션 하는 작업이 필요합니다. 먼저 "고 품질"로 1K 여건의 데이터를 추리는 작업이 필요하고, 그 다음 기계 번역합니다. 여기 까지하면 GPT4가 생성한 결과 그대로이기 때문에 라이선스가 애매하죠. 따라서 번역된 1K 여건을 사람이 일일이 검수합니다. 당연히 구조를 뒤틀고, 용어도 좀 더 자연스럽게 교정하는 등 매우 꼼꼼히 1K 데이터셋을 검수해보는 방향입니다. 그러면 사실상 GPT4가 만든 원본이라고해도, 결과물은 원본과는 완전히 다르기 때문에, 활용 가능할 것이라고 생각합니다.
: 혹시 관심있으신 분 계신가요?

https://twitter.com/WizardLM_AI/status/1677282955490918401

https://huggingface.co/WizardLM