crab notes 🦀 lobsterdao – Telegram
crab notes 🦀 lobsterdao
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A collection of opinions and narratives about crypto and startups. No investment or financial advice. Managed by RV LLC.

All info about lobsterdao is in their channels, see @lobsterdao.
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About the concept of money, prisoner's dilemma and more sociological-economic modelling, interesting and easy to read 🙏 https://medium.com/coinmonks/a-universal-framework-for-understanding-incentive-design-in-crypto-and-fiat-systems-part-1-e15e8179e2
Lazy. Proud. Shill. 🦐

Ye this is a shill. But Matic's good. This needs a deep code dive, but everything apart from that looks hot. No idea what metrics are, idc. This is about F u N d i M e N T a L z.

What is Matic about? At the core of it, it's a scalability play. I hate those! So what's different here?

Firstly, why I hate TPS coins:
1) Usually the tech implementations are very raw, or
2) TPS coins make new blockchains and have no network effect

Meaning: by the time your new techie thing will be out, you will already be rekt by a new research paper of some PhD student. Also, existing blockchains can just take your open source code, upgrade, and bam easy-peasy. If you start a new blockchain, you are an underdog right away if your only advantage is speed, because it's very superficial. By presumably making a better ETH - you will not get the same people that love ETH, and those people are what makes ETH actually great. It's all about the community. Token holders. Builders.

Matic enables scalability not by making its own entire new public blockchain, but this with Plasma, on ETH. It's an upgrade to Ethereum, it's not a competitor. It adds to the ETH ecosystem by providing scalability and tech implementations, while simultaneously piggy backing on ETH giant community and resources. This is the potential. What is built on ETH, can be routed via Matic. Why: cheaper and faster. You are still essentually using ETH, just via Plasma implementation of Matic.

For example, Decentraland has committed to using Matic mainnet to wire its operations through it. They are also close with DAI (MakerDAO) for the same purposes. To me, the narrative of this is clear: Engine for DeFi. How realistic this is? Well, you just need to be in bed with ETH projects or have huge backing (cough, Coinbase, cough) - and then just make them all wire transactions through Matic. Done. So the buz dev story is clear: first get all popular ETH projects who lack scalability - to use Plasma. And then start building more yourself.

Ok so just to sum up, what gets me hard:
1) They are dev focused, have nice docs and innovations, so it's sexy.
2) They have a clear biz dev / community acquisition strategy. Check all the ethhub and etc. updates about them. Waiting for Vitalik to tweet next LOL.
3) They explain what the token is for (to make plasma implementation permissionless)

Value creation (Plasma as DeFi Engine) -> value capture (Staking for Permissionless Plasma) checks out.

Follow-up reading: https://medium.com/matic-network/what-is-matic-network-466a2c493ae1. FAQ: https://docs.matic.network/faq. They announced 500,000 USD grant for devs. There are a lot of dApps, but hardly any users. Their experience + resources are supposed to help new devs get started: medium.com/matic-network/matic-developer-support-program-df1f0aaa9cd0
NuCypher: NEW crowd sale 🔥

Participants in the token distribution escrow ETH into a smart contract where it is locked. In return, they receive tokens. Participants are free to use those tokens however they like:

- if participants use the tokens for their intended purpose (e.g. running staking nodes) they will recoup their escrowed ETH after producing some amount for work
- if participants choose not to use the token for its intended purpose, they forfeit their escrowed ETH, which is effectively burned.

This means NuCypher is not actually raising money. Thus, the circulating supply can end up being absolutely... negligent. This is insane.

blog.nucypher.com/the-worklock
Quantitive analysis of Governance

Sometimes it feels like CoinFund is producing 90% of the crypto content ⚖️ This time Jake with some cool thoughts and data on how to analyze the value of a governance token model: twitter.com/jbrukh/status/1112778758321332224?s=21
Rocco with two cool pieces: on token distribution aka Fair Launch meme + a response to NuCypher's WorkLock model 🎓

On Fair Token Launches
-> http://bit.ly/2I40DGm

How to distribute tokens to as many people in interest as possible in a fair way. Touching upon interesting distributions by Numerai (dedicated data scientist airdrop), Handshake (contributors airdrop), and Livepeer (potential workers airdrop accessible to all ETH holders).

WorkLock --> WarLock
-> http://bit.ly/2K26X43

His idea is to make this like this: Participants receive 25% of their escrow back after ‘x’ work provided. 75% of ETH is pooled and forms an exogenous block reward which is granted in addition to the network’s native block reward...

Imho: this is a positive incentive type for workers to stay in the network. Positive incentives better apply to speculators... no, to be honest, they don't. Speculators would rather get less money but be safu and dump at a smaller profit at the start. If we are talking about the community in actual interest (loyal members), they would not need this superficial extra incentive. However, what it does do is make sure the team, which is able to stake and mine, will not be selling token rewards for USD to fund the development, but will be getting part of that ETH escrowed amount while not actually being in the initial WorkLock contribution (but... zcash premine much?). Share your ideas in @TokenCode
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Exchanges in 2019: we know how to recycle your 2018 dead bags at the expense of early investors! 👻 Coming soon to your favorite 2018 "Very High" project! Who is next?
How much of three-letter symbol space has been exhausted so far? Moar coinz! 🎉

The exact answer is 14%, here is the chart. Only about half (2467 of 4313) of assets listed on coingecko use 3-letter a-z symbols. BTx is the most popular symbol obviously.

Thx @crypto_eli5 lazy boi
​​SpreadYourSheet 🤗

In the era of IEOs, it has become redundant to find new investments because the idea of an IEO is simple: a small circulating supply and moon. It's a no-brainer, read a little rant here: t.me/ivangbi_diary/513. But this is not a rant about IEOs, because an IEO is just a fundraising tool, it's not the end of the world. There is a more sensitive issue. 😰

Because IEOs allow to invest only to participate with that exchange's token, it kills many possiblities of building a community. Crypto projects are often already complicated enough with all their code and stuff. But it was still possible to have a community and get viral because you had token holders being passionate about your vision and following you.

Now people:
1) still don't understand wtf you are building
2) cannot take part in it cause it's a damn research paper
3) can't have skin in the game cause u do IEO

This is why I am not going to touch upon all the forever-developing projects layer-1 scalability smart contracts, too many of those. Coda Protocol, StarkWare, BloXroute, Algorand, and so on. Sure, great research, great code, but it's boring for me and for you. As a project, if your narrative is we can do anything other blockchains can but better then you can't do anything. You can't develop your community, you code in your little basement and write research papers. No business, no community engagement.

I like narratives. You like narratives 🦄

For me and for the community it's about a narrative, about a unique story. This is why people hold your token, why they try to help, why they engage. A technical paper aint gonna cut it. Your BUIDL aint gonna cut it. You need the community and you need users, as well as a clear value proposition.

So this is what I am looking at, not focusing on ROI, aint a skem channel after all. But quite often, if you look beyond 1 day PnD, you will see the bridge future or get rekt like me LOL. I want to see nice tech applications, UX, good communities, strong vision backed up by substance. Quite often I will leave token metrics out up until the last day (hardcap bs etc.) because this is not financial advice. Besides, check this piece to understand how rekt most of the current reviews are and what they do wrong: https://medium.com/@ivangbi/crypto-assets-beyond-pnd-180b08a0cf2c
The history of IEO... Is it a new concept?

The noise ratio is crazy at the moment. Let's see what has been going recently.

BBQ also known as BQQ, BitSdaq 🐣

These spare ribs are not turning out to be so tasty. Originally hyped as the next Bittrex IEO, the SAFTs even included the clause about "if no IEO, then refund". Because, just like Upbit, it's a white-label of Bittrex. While the negotiations were ongoing, they announced their own launchpad - even before the money was collected and their own token started trading. That's an epiphany of the China Hustle. The pools are flowing and everyone is trying to buy, since the lockups on this one are less harsh (ezi flip u think?). Anyway, the premise is as usual: I make my own token and moon it so everyone will try to buy my launchpad slots. It's a clear business model, sure. Pure casino.

DUO Network ☃️

Ye idk what this is, but there is some wrapped non-custodial stuff, another trading thing. Maybe interesting, can't be bothered to look into it. Insanely harsh lockups, so your favorite influencer is telling you tu put all his money in it - sure, why not. Pure casino. No one really cares these days, and that's the issue. Let's get to that.

I am not trashing IEOs as a fund raising tool. I am trashing the majority of projects' approach - because I usually see nothing beyond PnD 📉

They do not try to show their product. They do not try to build a community. They make no efforts to look legitimate or working whatsoever. Their interaction is at the level of "we all know what is happening. Just deposit here, take your x2, and let us rek our private sale, because screw SAFTs". Fine, we all get it, it's just sad. Content being produced by legitimate projects (raised or to be raised) gets absolutely ignored. IEO calendar tells you to buy at least 5 times a day. But it's all mooning, so what's wrong?

Before I kept hearing how "Korea knows no winter, they raise millions anyway". In fact, IEO is not a new model, it's old!

⛔️ Here is how the proposal of a Korean IEO looked like at the end of 2018:

- you make a small cap for the sale, so it drives artificial demand
- you make the sliding bar go very fast and close the cap yourself
- you do not even need to send money, the exchange just shows it as "sale finished" demand moon lambo
- you publish a lot of news and pay a fakload for pumping, keeping deposits and withdrawals closed (they call it Chinese Wall)
- then you offload the tokens you bought and essentially raise the money that way
- you make the price look stable simply because you control the entire supply
___

🤷‍♂️ To be honest, it's very similar to how fashion brands like Supreme do it. There is no intrinsic value to even those products, so why would they do it differently in magic crypto money... You create hype, demand, and just let it die. It's a get-rich-quick machine. Is it good or bad? Doesn't matter, no one forces you to do it: you wanna get rich quick - then prepared to get poor quick as well. Look at the product and the community, they create changes, not an IEO fact by itself.

Stay SAFU and be honest. Integrity wins in the long run. If you scream in a chat "buybuy" to your friends just to offload your own bags - you are a piece of crap. If you play casino, at least be honest to others and say it's casino. Just a rant as always. I assume you all know it anyway. Sad for crypto, it will pass soon. Don'y be like Bibox announcing 4 IEOs a day. Dumb people copy CZ, and do it very poorly.

PS: I hold none of these coins and never tried. No salt, hidden agenda or anything. Feel free to rebut in @tokencode
Only the rich can buy shitcoins

A thread from Jake on why accreditation rules are not supposed to get fully abandoned. The main reason is to not create an ICO craze in the normal world due to information asymmetry... like that’s working 🤷🏻‍♂️

I fully disagree with the arguments though. If you touch something you don’t know about and get burned - that’s your lesson. What do you think?

Accreditation rules: yay or nay?

🤖 twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1121429980968378368?s=21
Reading list on Crypto Economics
Thanks to Daryl, Hans, Dmitri & others. Join @TokenCode 🤓
____________

Is economic life really zero-sum? A universal framework for understanding incentive design in crypto and fiat systems — Part 1
https://medium.com/coinmonks/is-economic-life-really-zero-sum-e15e8179e2

Unplugging from the Fiat Matrix A universal framework for understanding incentive design in crypto and fiat systems — Part 2
https://medium.com/coinmonks/unplugging-from-the-fiat-matrix-b5a194e9442d

Which New Business Models Will Be Unleashed By Web 3.0? Taking context from the history of business models native to Web 2.0 and to Web 3.0
https://medium.com/fabric-ventures/which-new-business-models-will-be-unleashed-by-web-3-0-4e67c17dbd10

A Primer on Bitcoin Investor Sentiment and Changes in Saving Behavior
https://medium.com/@adamant_capital/a-primer-on-bitcoin-investor-sentiment-and-changes-in-saving-behavior-a5fb70109d32

Value Capture and Quantification: Cryptocapital vs Cryptocommodities - on staking and value capture
https://www.placeholder.vc/blog/2019/4/26/value-capture-and-quantification-cryptocapital-vs-cryptocommodities

Five differences between Cosmos and Polkadot
https://medium.com/@juliankoh/5-differences-between-cosmos-polkadot-67f09535594b

Notes on applicability of the well-known Modern Portfolio Theory to describe risk profiles of cryptoassets
https://telegra.ph/Crypto-alphas-and-betas-04-30
Dear diary, today I quit crypto...

I was writing a long rant and then deleted it. Let's make it short.

There is very little to none secondary market right now, hence it's hard to attract primary investors. So what some projects seem to be doing? Reverse raise. That's when you detain pretty much all of your tokens (you don't sell any to outsiders or just not at all) - and then you liquidate them. Every day you wake up and sell 🤤

It feels like a secondary market, but it's actually just a continuous fundraising - non-transparent EOS style. Keep selling, printing news, selling more. People feel like "oh wow the price is stable, means it's consolidation, I need to buy" but actually no one can sell because no one has tokens. This model was also possible before, but first you had to buy back your own tokens - which is costly and is not so easy. But IEO enables generally 0-5% liquidity, and then you just draw charts like you want. Casino level 80.

🆘 Reverse raise: print news + print tokens at no outsider supply => dump every day

Projects do not even need to try anymore. They don't care about websites or communities, which is sad - fuck them. Also there are no reviewers making an effort to look into anything these days - and it's understandable. The value add of reviewing the FuNdAMentAlz has no effect or meaning anyway, most of the time. People wanna see green, and that's it.

Jk, I didn't quit. But be careful of reverse raises. That's it, have a nice weekend - hit me up, I ll be in NY drinking my sorrows away. 🍹
FUUUUCK I GOT REKT AGAIN

It took less than 30 min for charts to fuck me again. Who is putting such bids? Where is the freaking retrace? 😰 Sell books are... empty?!
My path to getting fucked

Essentially lost 0.22 BTC + 4 ETH on top of it due to getting rekt on ETH/BTC. Shall we short something boys? Don't think I have enough money for ramen at this point even.
Maybe the bull is here, but as soon as you change your sentiment to I will HODL everything now! - you will probably end up in destination fucked 😌
Bull market BINGO sheet

You don't like some ICO? Well, anyone being negative during bull can shut up. Because who cares... When it pumps, right?

1. Crypto traders gonna be gods again. Everything they buy will moon to USD.

2. Influencers will be back. Because apparently they got smarter after bear.

3. VCs will become very important again. Prepare to buy bags OTC.

4. Every MM will have great performance. 15K USD and up yet again?

Etc. If you are making gains, don't fool yourself to read fundamentals. You are still dumb. But better with a lambo than without it.
​​Blockcloud is a scam I don't always scream "scam" at every project, but this is next level. Everyone knew it was just a shitcoin with meaningless tech and no use cases - so a soft scam - but it's wasn't as bad, no one can predict the future. Anyway, what Blockcloud has been doing is outrageous:

1) Completely screwed private sale by giving almost no tokens at IEO
2) Kept selling foundation tokens at x20 posting charts of "moon lambo trading"
3) They have delayed the distribution yet again, for the third time - till mid-summer

Blockcloud made around/over 6M USD profit! Update: it's more factually correct to appeal to reverse raise shenanigans here rather than call specific actions. The fact that no one got the IEO sale and the private sale unlock was constantly being postponed, speaks for itself. Exact number is not as relevant here. Here is what reverse raise is.

In general, the primary market is now rekt. No one wants to touch seed or private sale. SAFTs mean nothing. Projects bend over at exchanges' will. You risk hugely by being vested for a century or have your bonus completely reversed Ifor being an early supporter. Demand an extra mile of accountability from projects going forward...
​​Professor coins strike again 🤓

NKN, IOTA, Avalanche, Perlin... who was first?

-> Apparently, IOTA is just going to do DPOS Avalanche: twitter.com/ercwl/status/1133724442658562050
-> Which is very similar to what NKN is trying: twitter.com/NKN_ORG/status/1134156239380787200
-> Which is in fact has been a battle of perlin for a long time: https://news.1rj.ru/str/cryptocodereviews/53336
-> Which is what tried to be debated by Near Protocol: https://medium.com/@itsnear/what-avalanche-paper-is-not-c047cf512c16
-> To which CTO of Perlin replied to as switching to just Snowball: https://twitter.com/Dranithix/status/1132388693694509056

A bunch of fugazi words, right? But you know what? No one gives a fuck about your new consensus.

Deal with it. Blockchain is a piece of old technology, no need to make 100 consensus layers. Surely, academic papers are important, but it's mostly how techies like to measure their pipi's. What matters is success determined by users and the value you bring them. Having the best paper and being the first paper is not a secret sauce. Another project will take your tech and then implement it in 1 day, retaining full network effects.

Which is why I don't believe in ETH killers and some new Layer 1's. That just doesn't cut it. Crypto is no longer about that research, there is too much noise. Crypto is now a startup business, where you have to work on community retention, product marketing, and build something users need - and not only what your dev friends like to code.

Will try to make a new article on Token as a Product in the coming week.
Spark it Up 💥

One of the most discussed projects of 2018-2019... After a year of weird communication, questionable development, and so on - the token unlock of SPRK is about to happen.

A terrible paid interview with Ivan on Tech seems to have convinced nobody. There is no fundamental focus from the community, because what is there to look at? But maybe we are all in a bubble, but everyone else likes them? 🌚

Pamp or damp? Your prediction:
xDai DPOS @xdaistable

P2P payments... Boring. P2P payments in a stablecoin... Subnoscription market, payments - still not hot enough. Stable chains for every stable coin, with private ZK Dai payments, bridges, and more... This is getting hot!

I like the narrative and the insanely fast development speed. One staking token can ensure security on every sidechain as well. Read some preliminary research, later on it will probably be updated: t.me/ivangbi_diary/602

Waiting for the numbers!