crab notes 🦀 lobsterdao – Telegram
crab notes 🦀 lobsterdao
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A collection of opinions and narratives about crypto and startups. No investment or financial advice. Managed by RV LLC.

All info about lobsterdao is in their channels, see @lobsterdao.
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​​2/2 UMA -> https://news.1rj.ru/str/blockchain_lobsters/822.

NO CIRCULATION?! 🤯 This relates to how Uniswap works. There is no orderbook, there are no hidden orders. It's a curve. You can't be fucked over unless you can count. So here is the thing: if the only tokens in the market are 2M offered on Uniswap - while those are backed with 1:1 ETH, then it mathematically cannot go below $0.26. ⭕️ Liquidity provision... what if that changes? They can just withdraw all/part of the ETH side of the pool. Or somehow add more tokens to the UMA side of the pool - but that would be directly scammy, don't expect that.

- Valuation at full dilution 💯 approx 26M USD
- Market cap 💰 530K USD but actually... 0 USD + some hackathon rewards + maybe inflationary rewards + black swan unlocks

This 0 USD thing is what makes the idea super interesting - but only if the lockup and liquidity statements holds true. Then you legit cannot buy below $0.26 for the coming weeks. The only dilution would be staking rewards then, which might be allowed for by private sale whales Inflationary rewards can be claimed by the voter within two weeks of being earned, and are not subject to any transfer restrictions.💡 I will check this later. But the protocol has the chance to pick up later and create demand, because they do cute things.

Also, just a couple of days ago a contract admin was allowed to allow more UMA minting over the cap LOL because they "decided" to make it earn inflationary rewards for fulfilling price requests and participating in governance: https://twitter.com/allilulllc/status/1254944093354016768

Anyway, the listing is in 2 hours or so, I might try with a couple of ETH! I don't know any backers or the team, so for me it's a pure gamble. But it is innovative as the token model, innovative as the project, and overall feeling cute about it. Let's go lose some money fam! https://uniswap.exchange/swap/0x04fa0d235c4abf4bcf4787af4cf447de572ef828
​​Update on the above. Instant x6-7 due to 1.5M USD getting in 7K ETH 🤯

Gas usage reminds of ICO times of 2018, pretty cool! I sadly didn't get in... Also expected only 500K interest so had a lower price range.

Now prepare for some shills people will use to offload, enabled private sale staking, and further dilution to take advantage of this. Not FUD, just an imho 🙂

https://etherscan.io/address/0x6264c8d158f32bd8c01b8a0102b57dfcfcfb8561
The next round must be priced higher! "Evolution" of token raises. NuCypher's WorkLock & UMA.
👉 https://lobsters.substack.com/p/the-next-round-must-be-priced-higher

Hi everyone, trying out a new format with substack... to make things look a bit more professional [lol].

You don't ever need to pay or insert your email, just ignore if it asks you. Oh and also I won't be making a personal token 💩

Today diving into:
💵 How raising the next round has been getting harder
🙏 The evolution of ICO/IEO and how it now requires more downside protection
😮 NuCypher's numbers on valuation boost. Spoiler: need 200,000 ETH
⭕️ UMA's model leaving people stuck at break-even

Let's discuss it over a bear in the chat!
​​Primary market coming back? 🤔

This screenshot sums up the past few feeks. While the alt season meme has been dead for over half a year, recently we have seen resurgence of lowcaps on non-centrlalized exchanges. Socks and tapes on uniswap, very little-known coins on IDEX, and so on. Some random stuff people are trying to gamble on, which shows more retail engagement all across the board. 4chan pumping and shilling an expired Opyn insurance, that was just next level lol.

But the question is: will it scale in volumes enough to accommodate more traders? X10 is cute, but on a $100 daily volume it meands nothing. Etheredelta could handle thousands of ETH.

As the primary market is driven by retail fomo, this continuous trend could bring in some of the primary market investors back, making the margin pyramid of seed-private-crowd work again. However, higher volumes are needed for it. Will this trend continue and bring in the primary money market back, or will it pop like most of the attempts of the last 2 years?
There ain't no such thing as free APR ©

This is not about yield farming sirs, this is about the myths of staking. A big part of the piece is dedicated to reverse-engineering professional validators [P2P, Figments, other cool teams] and show that a coin outside of TOP100 has close to zero chance of getting such guys. But is the brrr even relevant there...

As always, the article comes with dozens of typos, subjective opinions, and advice on how to get rekt.

Cheers 🖖 https://lobsters.substack.com/p/there-aint-no-such-thing-as-free

PS: you don't have to subscribe, just skip the notification if it pops up.
​​Liquid Staking by STAFI - Rich Code or Rekt 🐳 @stafi_protocol

With the market hitting ATHs, we see the resurgence of the primary market. In fact, VCs are hammering into anything "DeFi" without a second thought. Does this mean market topped? Well, I thought it did so in April, so I missed out all the profits sitting in USDT... muh familia, not even funny. Legit missed out all the profits: DeFi, BTC, everything. But now I am here to buy the top and get rekt!

DeFi is a more sustainable pyramid 🗻 if a pyramid at all.

It's good to note that DeFi has organic demand and a user base which actually pays fees, so despite being bloated - it has a bottom floor and legitimacy. Some OG chats called DeFi the top a long time ago, but remember that YouTube is just coming around to it, while normies are still buying ADA in Chinese onion villages - so, who knows. Just make sure not to go all-in, degenerates.

Staking is growing 📈 What's next for staking?

The staking industry is not stopping at all. Here is a more elaborate report and analysis on pros and cons of staking as an economic mechanism: https://lobsters.substack.com/p/there-aint-no-such-thing-as-free. So what do you do when some industry is booming? You make new services and solutions for it, capturing all its users. That's what Stafi is doing for staking.

The new asset class in DeFi 💧 liquid staking derivatives.

Stafi is the first DeFi protocol unlocking liquidity of staked assets. Users can stake PoS tokens through Stafi and receive rTokens in return, which are available for trading while still earning staking rewards. FIS is the native token on Stafi Chain. FIS is required to provide security to the network by staking, pay for transaction fees on the Stafi chain, mint & redeem rTokens.

Kind of like if you lock your Dai over the bridge to issue xDai. In the future, the market will do its thing, with extra products, derivatives, and other products in the ecosystem.

Ivan, fuck your fundamentals 🚀 what are the pumpamentals?

First of all, it's actually a cool product. It's not too easy to make, and the staking-lending derivatives are a very security-sensitive thing. The galaxy brain Tarun Chitra (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.11156.pdf), reports by Chorus One (https://mirror.chorus.one/liquid-staking-report.pdf), and many more. The liquid staking debate has been going for quite a while actually, there is a lot of noise and research in that area. If you see some cool links - shoot them in the chat.

🎯 Polkadot: Stafi is actually building on Substrate, as a parachain to Polkadot. Stafi received the grant and the support of Web3, helping Polkadot tap into DeFi. It doesn't mean that Stafi is restricted to the Polkadot ecosystem, it just rolls on the narrative and hype, while building its core blockchain on it. It will tap into Cosmos, Tezos, etc. later on. In fact, its non-incentivized testnet is in top-5 of active ones already after only a couple of days: https://telemetry.polkadot.io/#list/Stafi%20Testnet%20Seiya
🦄 DeFi supported by CEX: Stafi will be supported by BitMax liquidity and user base, giving a huge head start with its AUM once the contracts go live. That's an insane boost to any new project - an existing audience. More: https://medium.com/stafi/an-ama-on-staking-derivatives-by-bitmax-stafi-12412c0ca8
📈 Burning FIS token: a burning mechanism for fees paid with Stafi protocol usage. This P/E, burning cashflow idea sticks well with communities.
🐦 Unique staking audience acquisition. There will be dedicated lockdrop-style campaigns for different blockchains, that's a super strong user acquisition model. Stay tuned!

PS: I got a bag a couple weeks back, so obviously I want to see it moon. The final valuation is far below the DeFi crazy hype approx 10M, and the initial market cap will be way below 1M USD. I prefer projects with a very low start to have a better chance at showing returns for the early participants instead of starting at 50M. DYOR and check more in @stafi_protocol.
Lobster DAO 🦞 Not everything needs to be a DAO

Update on WHY NOT: https://twitter.com/IvanGBi/status/1289160756416720898

Some thoughts and updates on DAOs: what can DAOs do and what could Lobster DAO potentially do. Note: no sale, no raise, no anything. If there will be a token, it would likely be not listed - just for the sake of membership signing some governance decisions. There is no goal to make money here, and it will be literally valued at $0. Not even valued at all.

TLDR - I basically don't see a strong need for a DAO here. It's all open, community is there, why complicate? Strong opinion shift towards "fuck DAO, we are good as we are".

Maybe I am missing something, discuss 👉 https://news.1rj.ru/str/lobsters_chat/63770
Fun 🐳 RektPlebs Submission

It's weekend, so we can take a bit of time off *after 7 hours of staring at excel sheets* and talk about checking back our trading moves.

Here is my investment trannoscript since the beginning of 2020 🦞 The USD numbers in the text are just for fun.

1] I sold 25% of my BTC and ETH in April at 7.3K per BTC. That is +60% now for BTC and 107% for ETH. I wanted to cash into fiat because muh corona bank runs. So if you price that 25% as 25K USD of a 100K portfolio, that would be on average a 20K unrealized gain. On a 100K portfolio, that is a 20% unrealized gain.

2] Instead of cashing into fiat, I kept that USDT which is a bit below the $1 mark instead of like Dai which has premium.

3] To protect myself from the "ever-degrading European Union", I swapped a bag of EURO for USD at 9.18. Now it’s 8.45. About 8% on currencies. That was the ATH.

4] I didn't farm CRV for free even though I knew about it very early. I was afraid of the hacks. To date, still no hack happened. We will probably see this retarded move as a 100K+ unrealized gain.

5] I was the second person to learn about YFI but didn't think it would be much despite counting P/E and earnings and all. I joined it a few days later and mined 4 YFI and the pulled out. Sold at 1K. Just for the reference, with a small bag I would be at about 500K profit for only taking the protocol risk. The number is that big because early on anyone could do it with 50K or so.

6] Moreover, I sold my ETH to yCRV to mine YFI (I know about lending, thx). Since then, ETH went up so I basically got rekt by moving things around. By more than 40%.

7] I was lazy to claim KarmaDAO airdrop and lost 2K USD there just for clicking a button too late.

8] I never bought REN, KNC, LEND, or any DeFi coin. I thought the peak hype was in March because all my bubble friends are coder degens who been doing it since 2019.

9] I bought NXM at the bottom to then sell it at +80% a couple days later. By the time I finished dinner on that same day, it was up 300% more.

10] My portfolio is still currently >60% in USDT. It's bull market guys. It's still 60%.

<--------->

RESULTS 🤷 we are looking at 1M USD+ of free, actually risk-free gains here. Or rather, non-losses. I don't think anyone can beat this record! I am proud of it.

PS: this post is a meme. It only includes bad trades and doesn't account for hending with SAFTs... But tbh this is what my doctor told me to tell to myself to stay sane.

There is no investor worse than me. Even Ian Balina is better. Plz sir muh familie.

https://youtu.be/tOzUV2uq0xE
Dear Private Sale bag of 2018-19.

I hope you are developing further! I love your project.

Also, it looks like the market is doing well. In fact, very well. Actually...

IT IS DOING SO FUCKING WELL WHY ARE YOU NOT LISTING PIECE OF SHIT?!?!

Kind regards,
Mr. in it for the tech

-------

FIO on Binance, SAND on Launchpad, BAND on Coinbase.

If you still hadn't fired your analyst, you are doing something wrong.

It's 2020. Stop trying to make sense of things.
The last 24 hours have been insanely fun. People are experiencing their first rebase in life, an AMPL copy. But this time you also get the protocol dumping into you BY DESIGN: https://etherscan.io/tx/0x7b9017ec92b0200455e5269380195fbecfbf91c8acda30985cc1dc413d215076. "But I got more coins now" well great champ, now find liquidity. Let's see how it goes.

PS: protocol bug, it's off by 1e18

Long Read on WTF this is 🦞 t.me/lobsters_chat/76950

https://twitter.com/IvanGBi/status/1293647116020191234
Any time, degens, any time... CRV will likely make 200 gas look like a baby. Cryptokitties x2: github.com/curvefi/curve-dao-contracts/pull/39

DO NOT BUY IMHO
It looks like LobsterDAO just allegedly launched Curve Finance $CRV. Everybody is still confused.

It might be a joke, but might be real. Everyone is confused af. Post-mortem incoming.

This is not a joke. Wait for confirmations. This was the best launch party ever.
Channel name was changed to «Blockchain Lobsters 🦐🌱 10b57e6da0»
The story of 0xc4ad and 10b57e6da0 🦞 How we __didn’t-but-kinda-did__ launch Curve.

All is in the next, thank you for being part of this! Was super fun. Now time to farm 👨‍🌾

PS: farming is just a model - but the internet value was with those protocols since day 0. If you compare them to farming no-value coins, I feel sad for you.

https://twitter.com/IvanGBi/status/1294122386716008448
The Degens Are Toxic 👨‍🌾

You and me, sers. We are the retail now. We are toxic degens. The MMO PVP veggies are fun, but we are also killing the market.

We put huge bags into farming where the average APY turns into a 20% profit at best, while we risk the full 100% with no downside protection? Yup, that sums it up.

And I don't want to be a boomer, but when every second well-known founder starts participating in memes and PnDs, it's not really the community spirit or whatever CT tries to tell you - it's just degeneracy. And scammy, to be honest. "Projects" written in 2 days, not audited, attracting 500M USD TVL (total value locked) is pretty retarded. Wouldn't call that "experiments". YAM and its forks, potatoes of all sorts, shrimpy cream, and now bolognese - that's what I would like to eat when I go out... but we are stuck next to our laptops farming virtual shit! Next to being degenerate, this behavior is outright scammy as it dumps on unaware retail. Rug pulling, abusing token contracts to mint more, and all that stuff. Absolutely retarded.

Let's stop? 🤔

Give your attention to real value!

The bull starts and continues for longer if there is actual value being created. DeFi started something cool and fueled the market, but it's quickly detaching from reality. Not good sers.

If we want to save muh familie, we can do better. Give your attention and brains to projects with real cool use cases, participate in governance if you have time.

For example, YFI builders have been shipping a bunch of stuff, really making B.C. = Before Cronje = look like medieval times. I yolo'd all-inned into yVault, and there are other cool Y products and insurance coming up... Here are some links to click around and have fun with: ycosystem.info, learnyearn.finance/vaults/help, feel-the-yearn.vercel.app, yearn.finance/vaults, yieldfarming.info/yearn/yvault. The DAO makes about 15M USD annualized revenue (profits) now, which is mind-blowing: twitter.com/iearnfinance/status/1295582920841793537

The slight cannibalistic (parasitic?) Vault approach of harvesting and selling CRV could be soon mitigated - gov.yearn.finance/t/yip-37-participate-in-crv-governance-and-2-5x-crv-reward-boost/2611... We will dive into liquidity mining pitfalls likely in the next article. With CRV DAO launching dao.curve.fi, we could play around with: pool fees, admin fees, amplification, unkilling a pool, adding a gauge, changing gauge type, changing gauge weights, adding a pool to registry. That's pretty fun! And likely Y can play a role here as well, for the sake of growing the ecosystem long-term.

100 projects from China and Korea are coming with their DeFi (total scham, let's be honest) and many ICOs are getting ready to moneygrab. The older non-listed projects are gearing to list in the next months, coming out of retarded sleep which lasted over a year. They are late to the party, as always. But which founders kept shipping during bear? Let's give them some spotlight! 🦞

PS: is the TOP in? 👁

From the one hand, every second pooler is making their own coin coin and is preparing 3 DeFi projects. On the other hand, youtubers and the retail still know nothing about DeFi. It's not like it was with ICOs where retail was activerly participating. So it's not really whether we are late in the cycle or early. A lot of it will be decided by traditional markets and BTC. Stay safu.
​​Governance Rush 🌾👨‍🌾

If you missed a few governance things of the past few weeks, this is for you.

Fellow farmers, unite! We have been collectively turning these fertile lands (not your sister, don't worry) into wastelands. Coming as a swarm in full force and annihilating the entire supply of crops within days, Ethereum lands start to feel the effects. But fear no more, we must collectively now decide on how to keep the crops growing while buying a house every second week...

This isn't really a joke. And it's not DeFI policing either! It's governance, ser. 👮‍♀️

So we have yEarn making proposals in MakerDAO, Aave supporting yEarn, then you try to vote for a gauge increase in renBTC pool by asking your CRV friends to pamp your REN bags... super fun, right? The combination of these things makes for powerful play controlling hundreds of millions of dollars.

You see, people chase yields, always and forever. When you increase the yield on sBTC CRV gauge to triple digits, it automatically makes for a good case to get some sBTC and put it into the pool. That immediately influences the fees on swaps, the volumes, and the interest for sBTC itself. Even centralized platforms like FTX and NEXO jump in. Now go a bit further and look at YAM. So you deposit COMP SNX and other governance coins. With high yields, you end up increasing the demand for these governance coins. That boosts the DeFi index for traders, borrowing rates for Compound and Aave, and so on. The indirect effect of semi-ponzis helping more legitimate projects: twitter.com/Rewkang/status/1296737576166944768

Here are some cool snippets:

-> Yearn and YAM deciding to allocate some of the reserves to Gitcoin open-source projects: twitter.com/bantg/status/1298591059606474753.
-> Curve DAO started and was immediately seeing the boost in Compound APY rewards. The Michael wanted to vote as a founder and fat-fingered a huge governance part… but holders came together and reduced his vote strength.
-> Since veCRV has VoteLock against gaming it via lending-borrowing governance tokens, Y contract had to be first approved to vote for the boost in CRV rewards, meaning for about a week longer Y is waiting to vote for the boost: twitter.com/iearnfinance/status/1298858608533397504. But as we see, the gauges are somewhat similar to how the initial weight started.
-> Credit Delegation launched by Aave, and then immediately proposed by Aave to include it in yVaults to increase APY: twitter.com/iearnfinance/status/1298303842296135680
-> Like many other protocols, farming issuance long-term neither captures more TVL nor is a good idea for price performance. Compound is trying to find an answer to this question: twitter.com/compoundfinance/status/1298720987144286209
-> SNX’s DAO, Yearn’s YCombinator idea, MetaCartel Ventures and Moloch DAO being more active, and so on. A lot of cool initiatives! We will talk about them later.

PS: this in now way relates to scam DAOs your paid chat admins are launching. Those are not experiments but are blatant moneygrabs. Cancelling such people is a must.

1/2
1
​​Governance Rush 🌾👨‍🌾 2/2

So how much does this governance cost? 🤷

We have been on the governance train since over 2 years ago! Check this post, for instance - t.me/blockchain_lobsters/441. Back then, governance participation was just a mere single digit percentage of token holders. Here is a great piece of data - https://aragon.org/blog/a-report-on-aragon-network-votes-1-5. But even when there were some incentives, the market didn’t want to be active… Now we are in a bullish market, governance yields strong yCRV rewards like in YFI, so it makes more sense to participate! The levels of inclusion and in the double digits now of token holders.

But like with any governance, it’s still basically plutocracy. Smart people will say “go for Quadratic voting sir” and they will be right, but it doesn’t fix things 100%. See this cool metric: twitter.com/AndreCronjeTech/status/1297757154691162112. The participation is still quite low, and hundreds of millions of intertwined economic effects are in the hands of a few (responsible) people. Which is how it has always been, so that is not a surprise. But the question is how to activate those other people?

So what fixes this apathy? 🤔

The experiment I am eyeing - PowerPool

This won’t fix everything either. But it’s pretty interesting.

So when Anton made a twitter post about asking on how to increase governance participation - many thought “ser just give extra rewards”: twitter.com/k06a/status/1298347312603897857. Moreover, staking LP tokens is also not the best idea at all times as galaxy brain Tarun points out: twitter.com/tarunchitra/status/1298359745426993159. And as we see from Andre’s post, even big yCRV (real dividends!) do not turn traders into passionate protocol participations. Most people just won’t do it.

So some have been thinking of creating parliaments, or let’s say or “Trade Unions” in a way where minority holders would be able to participate and make their small voices heard. Meta-DeFi Democracy as PowerPool calls it: medium.com/@powerpoolcvp/powerpool-the-tool-for-meta-defi-democracy-8bb82f02f40. For the minority token holders, PowerPool expands utility of governance tokens by adding cashflow and influence farming — an opportunity to continually grow token stake. For like what, a few billion dollars protocols? Kinda scary.

One has to note that buying and selling introduces new issues. However, it’s not as easy to find enough lending weight in any protocol to really get the majority of the quorum with flas loans. VoteLock of CRV went ahead and figured out this attack vector right away, and other governance coins are thinking of how to implement measures to prevent such attacks. Super interesting!

I might try to dump my CVP testnet tokens on you! So keep that in mind.

🦞 I would like to turn this little post into proper research with data, governance votes, participation across protocols, and so on. Willing to subsidize your time with coins. Please let me know if you can join this! We can look into how forks abuse the notion of a governance token and yield no meaningful returns, and all that stuff. Thanks for reading 🙂

PS: a cool post by Arthur must-read - https://blog.bitmex.com/dreams-of-a-peasant. Although seems like he spends more time farming than improving his casino xoxo