Breakout target #1 reached!

What a beautiful reaction at the 128-Day MA! Daily close is important. Volume still declining, assuming the decisive move is ahead.

​More of on-chain analysis: Bitcoin MVRV ratio

What is the MVRV ratio?

[ MVRV is calculated by simply dividing market value by realized value on a daily basis ]

Market value - total market capitalization (latest BTCUSD trading price multiplied by the number of bitcoins mined thus far)
Realized value is found not by counting all mined coins equally at current price, but rather assigning them a $ price based on the time when they were last moved.
It is of particular interest whenever market value goes below a 1:1 ratio to realized value.

💡The current bull run looks more like 2012-2013 not only by its price action, but also by MVRV ratio. Although the level of MVRV is not unusual, we never saw a rise this big since 2013! In August 2012 MVRV moved up to the level where we are today and then another parabolic move happened.

So, according to this metric, the first take to the bull market is just about to complete and the second act is about to start in the Q4 (October-December).

​#BTC

For 3 month we've been watching this descending triangle pattern form and it finally broke down.

The price found support at the 200-Day MA, which is in line with a horizontal support. It's the first test of it since being away from it for a long period of time, so we can hope for a relief rally until we close below the 200 DMA.

⚠️The Descending Triangle as a pattern has its breakdown target. Full measured move out of the descending triangle is ~ 5k (aggressive target). Does it have to go that low? Of course not, but keep that in mind.
If we break the 200-Day MA, the price probably will stop in mid 7ks.

​The 200-Day MA is very important in a bull market.

There were some short-lived touches in 2016 and 2013. We’ve never had a weekly close below the 200-Day MA in a bull market.

In August of 2016 we fell 6% below it on a wick;
In February of 2014 we fell 13% below it on a wick;
In July of 2013 we fell 10% below it and even opened & closed a full daily candle below it before a swift rebound;
In October of 2013 we dipped below it again but didn’t print a full candle under the 200-Day MA.

📌 A close below a critical moving average doesn't mean much. It's all about an entire body of a candle opening and closing below that MA, but even this can be tricky (look at the price action in July of 2013). If we get a full candle below the 200-Day MA, that will be a point of concern.

​Here is a nice support line on the weekly RSI during bull trends.

👉 Every time we came down and test that support on the RSI, it was a local bottom during 2016-2017 bull cycle. It was also relevant in 2012-2013 uptrend.

Bitcoin cut through the first and very obvious support line and now sitting at the second one - this is the last hope of the bulls. Needs to rally back up. The weekly close is going to be very important.

​CME Futures are expiring tomorrow at 4:00 PM London time (3:00 PM UTC time)

Here is an important point: these are half-yearly Futures and they were opened on April 1, right before that $1k pump that kicked off the bull run.

Expecting high volatility around the expiration, beware of darth maul candles. Tomorrow can be a pivot point to the upside, but if not... and we break the 200-Day MA, this will get ugly.

​📊 Bitcoin's market share of entire money market including Gold is 0.2%. Potential for growth is huge.

Bitcoin as an asset is a drop in the bucket. A $1T+ market cap would still be undervalued for it to have any meaningful impact as a store of value/currency.

👉 Number of millionaires in the world: 36 million
👉Bitcoin supply: 21 million coins

Each millionaire can have only 0.58 BTC. Considering that ~4 million lost, the ratio is even lower - 0.47 BTC per 1 millionaire.

​Here is the chart of Tether Market Cap, BTC price and top Altcoins in BTC pair.

BTC had an unprecedented run up after an unexpectedly compressed accumulation.

❓Fundamental question: where is the money coming from to pump BTC? Let’s appeal to the chart.

This entire run up has been the combination of institutional investment, Tether printing, altcoin money moving into Bitcoin and retail FOMO in chronological order.
During this bull run since 4k break USDT Market Cap was leading the BTC price up to the moment when we crossed $10k. Above 10k some sort of retail FOMO started.

Look how in BTC pair alts got totally destroyed when BTC price accelerated. This BTC rally had a lot to do with money moving into Bitcoin. What preceded this was BTC pumping fueled by tether printing. This was not new money coming into Bitcoin. Basically, it was just people unloading their alt bags, converting them into Bitcoin when they saw BTC outperforming alts.

There was no retail buying like in 2017. It was international money pumping the price. Public attention is not attracted yet. It's being left for the second act of the bull run.

Bitcoin MVRV update

We not only peaked at the same level, but also came to the same support as in August of 2012.
The current bull market gets more & more reminiscent of 2012-2013.

​#BTC 4h

There is something to keep an eye on

This dark green line seems to be pretty good at supporting/resisting the price. Right now BTC is being squeezed between this support line and the 50MA on 4h. Be ready for a move.

Also pay attention to the 200-Day MA. It is key for the bulls. We really need to break above it to continue going up. Next major resistance to look for is around 9k.

​Hype over?

Data from over 85,000 unique publication headlines collected since October 2017 shows that mentions of institutional interest in Bitcoin in news headlines have plummeted to a 2019 low after seeing significant growth throughout the summer.

📌True impact on media attention was coming from institutional trading platform Bakkt.

In the history of Bitcoin we never had more than two consecutive red monthly candles while being in a Bull market. Now we got the third red monthly candle which is pretty nasty.

Alts/Bitcoin Market Cap #update

We are about to close the weekly above the 9EMA for the first since April. Seems like alts will continue growing in BTC pair until we meet 50EMA (our second target)

But keep in mind the Big Picture. This is just a bounce

📰 BREAKING: 1.4 trillion dollar class action lawsuit opened against Bitfinex and Tether.

A new lawsuit claims crypto exchange Bitfinex and its sister company Tether manipulated the crypto market, harming traders and benefiting themselves.

​One year ago Tether FUD resulted in significant divergence of Tether rate and U.S. dollar. BTC price spiked by 23% against USDT while in fiat pair it went up only 10%. This time we have a group lawsuit against Tether and Bitfinex.

Tether has $4 billion market cap. If that starts fleeing to bitcoin & other #crypto you may see a crypto rally similar to what we had exactly one year ago.

⚠️ Temporary Tether collapses have never evolved into something serious, but it doesn't mean that one day Tether will not be shut down. This stable (!) coin has too much controversy.

We said it back then and will repeat it again: Tether is a Black Swan event waiting to implode one day. Be cautious!

The price goes exactly like we pointed out with arrows!

🎯 Points number 7,8 and 9 are successfully reached!