🗞 Cryptocurrency Weekly News | May 24th, 2021 🗞

Greetings everyone to Bitcoin Existence Day 4524.

So did anything happen in the last 7 days? 🙂 🙂

History is created by way of weeks and months of status quo followed by hours of dramatic evolution.

Let’s unravel what we have just experienced, starting with that A-B-C correction that we’ve been discussing for a few weeks. As fate would have it, the C wave wasn’t about to complete without making us sit up and take notice. On the back of extended multi-month crypto hype, a surplus of too many competing copycat projects for too few dollars, and extreme over-leveraged retail trading positions… wave C ended with a sharp and dramatic collapse. In the end BTC experienced a 30% further drop in less than a day. Make no mistake about it, this was a capitulation that came to an end via billions of dollars in forced liquidation. Read more and view the technical chart.

A Dip for the Ages as Sudden Correction Leads to Record Losses

In last week’s newsletter we touched on the proliferation of Dog themed ERC-20 tokens, and the mainstream attention generated by the activities of Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Despite the advent of “Silly Season” ETH still soared to a new all time high of around $4,356, however, this all came to an end as the market was hit with a sudden crash which saw the total market cap fall by around $750B in just a few hours.

Bitcoin lost $10k in price on Wednesday and fell from around $42k to $32k while Ethereum lost over $1k in price and fell from around $3,400 to $2,300. The total cap fell from around $2.07T to $1.35T as a sudden correction took place.

The size of Bitcoin on-chain realised losses actually eclipsed all previous capitulation events, such as Jan/Feb 2018, Nov 2018, and March 2020, with the USD value of daily losses realised by spent coins hitting a new ll time high of $4.53B on May 19 with the total weekly realised loss hitting $14.2B.

As expected, leverage traders were caught up in the carnage as $8.86B of liquidations took place across exchanges with 802,002 traders being liquidated. Over $3.3B worth of positions were liquidated in just one hour, with Huobi accounting for $3.21B worth of liquidations, while Bybit and OKEx accounted for $1.66B and $1.27B worth of liquidations respectively. Read more.

Please enjoy the June 2021 CryptoCalibur Team Picks Technical Analysis article.
📈📉📈📉📈
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https://cryptocalibur.com/cryptocalibur-team-picks-june-2021-ta/

🗞 Cryptocurrency Weekly News | June 2nd, 2021 🗞

Greetings everyone to Bitcoin Existence Day 4531.

After many wonderful months of Bitcoin bull market, we find ourselves in a new reality. It’s interesting to observe that many headlines are saying things like “the bitcoin correction” or “will the bull market continue?”. But the chart speaks with clarity. From the April 14th peak, to the May 19th high volume collapse, Bitcoin printed a 53.67% decline. This is a bear market. Even if the worse is behind us (and it might not be – more on that in a bit) we should expect price to move in fits and starts as it absorbs the damage and begins to heal.

Let’s talk psychology for a minute. Many sources have documented the damage done to (mostly) retail traders who found themselves holding positions of leverage. The May 19th collapse is fossilized evidence of the catastrophic completion of this epoch. When something of this sort takes place, participants and liquidity are permanently removed from the game. Some will drift back in time, some will not. Retail interest moves in intermediate term to long term cycles; we should expect a logical period of lowered activity.

In the institutional world Michael Saylor may be as convinced as ever about the long-term trajectory of our algorithmically determined evolution of money. Elon Musk and the Tesla board may as well. But it’s also clear that these entities, and others like them, are now bag holders for at least some portion of their Bitcoin. At the very least this will serve as flags of caution for other institutional players that have been nibbling at fiat diversity, or at least considering it. Again, time heals all wounds. If Bitcoin is truly destined for a 6, 7, or 8 figure valuation, it will still get there. But perhaps not on the same schedule that many believed it would 6 weeks ago. Read more and view the technical charts.

Traders Stay Active Despite Signs of a Trap

As the fallout from the market downturn continued last week, analysts reached a general consensus that we were approaching either a Bull trap or Bear trap. Which way the market will go is still unknown but as last week brought May to an end it left us with some interesting data to pour over.

Firstly, record amounts of trading took place over the month of May as trading volumes on spot exchanges pushed past $2T, with more than $70B in trades being executed throughout the sell-off on May 19. The trade count on Coinbase for the BTC-USD pair was significantly higher than on any other exchange, as Coinbase processed 1.7 million trades for the pair, nearly double the number of trades on the next highest day.

While CEX’s saw record volumes, the total DEX trading volume surpassed $300B in May, after pushing past $100B for the first time in April and recording a 96% month-over-month increase. ETH volumes surpassed BTC volumes for the month with the average daily spot volume for both currencies topping $20B. Ethereum options volume also hit a new all time high in May, touching $15B after breaking the $5B barrier for the first time in April. BTC futures volume also moved to a new ATH of $2.47T after increasing by 29.9%.

The total stablecoin supply hit $100B last week, with Tether’s USDT accounting for just over half the supply with more than $50B worth of USDT currently in circulation while the total supply of USDC moved to over $20B. At the same time, borrowing rates for stablecoins in DeFi began making a new low for the year with the average rate falling below 10%. Read more.

🗞 Cryptocurrency Weekly News | June 9th, 2021 🗞

Greetings everyone to Bitcoin Existence Day 4538.

Today’s entry will be short and to the point for a couple reason. First, I’m traveling! Second, the character of the ongoing Bitcoin trend is fully unchanged since last week. In fact, the bearish case has only continued to solidify.

Items to note:

- BTC price continues to erode, consequently the 50-day moving average continues to approach the 200-day and threatens to make a Bearish Cross. One of the most reliable signals in technical analysis, at this point it would require a very sharp BTC rally to stop it.
- The symmetrical triangle trend continuation (down) pattern has completed and broken to the downside. Our best hope here for the bulls is that we create a new trading range and begin a basing process. But the news is negative.
- The potential of a very large and bearish head and shoulders pattern continues to develop, with downside targets of $25k minimum and a possibility of much lower levels down to the $19k breakout level. For now, it’s just a potential – but warrants a close watch. Read more and view the technical chart.

El Salvador Steals the Show as Institutions Continue to Turn to Digital Assets

All eyes were on Bitcoin this week as the Bitcoin 21 Conference took place in Miami, Florida. A number of interesting developments were unveiled over the week, however, it was the revelation that El Salvador was in the midst of making Bitcoin legal tender that turned the most heads, and effectively stole the show.

A recorded announcement by Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador, was played at the Bitcoin 2021 conference, and announced the government’s intentions.

“Next week I will send to congress a bill that will make Bitcoin a legal tender,” said the laser-eyed head of state.

The declaration makes El Salvador the first country to legally make Bitcoin legal tender, and onboard a non-fiat currency, with other nations expected to follow suit. Prior to the announcement, institutions had looked to take centre stage as the ETC Group is set to launch the first Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) in the United Kingdom.

The ETP will launch on the Aquis Exchange Multilateral Trading Facility (MTF) in London on June 7. Trading of the ETP will take place in GBP, CHF, the Euro, and the U.S. Dollar, and the launch will represent the first cryptocurrency ETP being made available for trading on either a U.K. market or any European MTF. Read more.

🗞 Cryptocurrency Weekly News | June 15th, 2021 🗞

Greetings everyone to Bitcoin Existence Day 4545.

As we work our way through another week in the life of Bitcoin, we encounter a conflict between shorter term action and longer term.

Tl;dr? — The last week has been a nice break that seems to be losing steam. Looking for a pullback so we can get a feel for the buyers in lurk.

In the short term, we are definitely seeing signs of strength that we haven’t in many weeks. For starters, we made it over the declining 13-day moving average for the first time in 5 weeks. In the process, we invalidated what had been looking like a symmetrical triangle bearish continuation pattern. Put both of these issues firmly in the positive camp. Read more and view the technical chart.

MicroStrategy Doubles Down While El Salvador Makes Good on Its Promise

In last week’s newsletter, we highlighted the announcement by Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador, that he would send a bill to congress that would make Bitcoin legal tender in the nation. Well, the El Salvador “Bitcoin bill” officially passed after receiving 62 out of 84 possible votes, and President Bukele quickly announced plans to develop clean, sustainable Bitcoin mining in the country, harnessing energy generated by volcanoes. The country is also expected to announce a number of programs and incentives aimed at attracting crypto companies, as well as traders and investors to base themselves in El Salvador.

Meanwhile, tech giant MicroStrategy pressed ahead with its private offering of $400m worth of senior secured notes in order to fund additional Bitcoin purchases. After making an official announcement, the company followed up with a confirmation of its pricing for the senior secured notes which pushed the expected proceeds from the sale closer to $500m.

MicroStrategy received about $1.6B in orders for the offering, and announced the aggregate principal amount of the notes sold in the offering was $500m worth with the notes due in 2028 and bearing an annual interest rate of 6.125%. Interestingly, according to its June 7th, Form 8-K filing with the SEC, the tech company declared it expected an impairment loss of at least $284.5m due to fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin over Q2. Read more.

🗞 Cryptocurrency Weekly News | July 8th, 2021 🗞

Greetings everyone to Bitcoin Existence Day 4566.

Following nearly a full year of crypto excitement, we find ourselves more than 2 months into a Bear phase and, to be honest, stuck in a boring and narrow market. For the last 6 weeks Bitcoin has been trending tightly and entered July with an even more narrow range.

But there are still observations to be made, as we attempt to find a hint of our next move. Let’s take a look at a chart, and then tally up a few items of note. Read more and view the technical chart.

Banks Go Back and Forth over Crypto Integration as Q2 Ends

Last week brought the end of June, beginning of July, as well as the end of quarter two. After posting returns of over 100% for Q4 2020, and Q1 2021, Bitcoin recorded its worst Q2 performance in over eight years as the price of BTC fell by 40% over the quarter. This kind of significant drop in value over Q2 hasn’t been seen since 2013 and also compares to some of Bitcoin’s worst quarterly returns within recent years such as -49% and -42% returns in 2018, and a -40% return in 2014.

Ethereum performed much better, and recorded returns of 105% in Q4 2020, and 159% in Q1 2021, before going on to record an 18% return over Q2 2021. In addition, as of June 27, the Ethereum network had approximately 200K more daily active addresses than the number operative across the Bitcoin network.

However, Binance dominated much of the early week’s news as the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) published a consumer warning concerning Binance Markets Limited and the Binance Group. The warning reiterated the fact that Binance Group subsidiary Binance Markets Limited is not permitted to undertake any regulated activities in the UK without the prior written consent of the FCA. Read more.

🗞 Cryptocurrency Weekly News | July 16th, 2021 🗞

Greetings everyone to Bitcoin Existence Day 4573.

Traditional financial markets often experience a period of low volume and inaction during summer months. Especially in late July, and August. In the world of crypto, we very much seem to be in such a phase, perhaps in a simple act of cross-market tradition.

For several weeks at this point our observations on the price action of Bitcoin have remained nearly unchanged. Slow sideways action, diminishing volatility, in conjunction with a soft and steady price decay.

To begin with, it is quite easy to notice that little has changed regarding the items we have analyzed over the last few weeks. The large and obvious head and shoulders pattern is still in place. It remains but a potential for now. Momentum has radically declined, and price drifts sideways for the most part. Read more and view the technical chart.

Binance’s Woes Continue as Visa and Neo Banks Move Closer to Cryptos

Binance is still not free from its apparent global “blacklisting” as Barclays moved to stop its UK clients from sending funds into the leading crypto exchange. Transfers from the EU’s Sepa network were also ‘temporarily suspended’ and this followed on from the exchange’s UK customers being unable to utilize the Faster Payments network, and major banks such as NatWest and Santander restricting access to the exchange.

Some more positive news came in the form of Visa announcing its intention to partner with 50 crypto companies in order to allow users to spend digital currencies through its card program. The credit card giant will partner with companies such as FTX, Crypto.com, and Coinbase to allow users to convert and spend their holdings without merchants having to do anything special as spending on crypto-linked Visa cards surpassed $1B n in the first half of 2021. The news also comes as neo banks such as Revolut, N26, and Monese all announced their intention to offer more crypto related products and services.

Bitcoin also appeared to benefit from increased spending as the current price has the highest level of on-chain volume since BTC was fluctuating around $10.3k. According to data from Glassnode, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) broke past 400,000 as BTC fluctuated around $34,300, and when BTC was at $10.3k, the URPD was close to 500,000. Read more.

🗞 Cryptocurrency Weekly News | July 24th, 2021 🗞

Greetings everyone to Bitcoin Existence Day 4580.

The drip, drip, drip decline of Bitcoin persists.

Let’s just say it. It’s ugly out there. Ugly, and boring. Bitcoin has not been able to stage anything close to a rally in weeks at this point, and the list of negative developments are stacking up. Read more and view the technical chart.

Let’s post a chart, then just list them all.

5 Reasons why it’s hard to love Bitcoin right now:
- The Head & Shoulders pattern continues, and the neckline (as I have it drawn) has been compromised.
- The volume on the neckline breach was slightly elevated. That’s a confirming factor.
- Our 3 major moving averages (13, 50, 200) remain in steady Bear formation.
- At the time of writing, BTC is 54% off its all time high. That’s a Bear market, a really lousy one, by any standards.
- Here’s a new but not unexpected development. As warned of last week, the 200 day moving average is now ticking lower day to day. Negative slope. Disgusting.

The Bitcoin Landscape Continues to Shift as Institutions & Regulators Jostle for Position

With the price of BTC holding much of the market’s attention, the Bitcoin landscape continued to go through significant changes over the week. According to data from Glassnode, new user growth reached a new all-time high with over 50,000 new entities coming on-chain a day. At the same time, both retail and so called whales ramped up their BTC purchases with 17 new Bitcoin whales being birthed on the blockchain, while overall whale holdings increased by 65,429 BTC. The supply of Bitcoin held by entities with a balance ranging from 1k to 10k BTC jumped to over 4,200k.

Data from Kaiko highlighted that Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 shifted to the negative for the first time this year. While the two were loosely correlated during the first half of 2021, amid a period of repeated new all time highs, the recent BTC price drop has resulted in a negative correlation as the S&P 500 continues to perform strongly. Bitcoin also retains a negative correlation to Gold, which rose by 20% over the past month and now both Gold and the S&P 500 share a similar negative correlation of around -0.2 with BTC.

The Bitcoin hash-rate recovered from a peak-trough decline of 55%, moving to a decline of approximately 39%. This would indicate that hash-power equivalent to around ~29% of the affected hash-power has come back online and may indicate that miners in China successfully managed to relocate their operations elsewhere. Read more.

🗞 Cryptocurrency Weekly News | July 30th, 2021 🗞

Greetings everyone to Bitcoin Existence Day 4587.

When things change they can change quite fast! As a trend follower, sometimes analysis can find itself on autopilot. By definition, trend direction persists… until it doesn’t. For weeks on end, our story has been the same – bearish deterioration across a slowly evolving Head and Shoulders topping pattern.

But this week brings starkly new information and it’s time to modify the noscript. Read more and view the technical chart.

Just as Bitcoin was threatening to complete that massive Head and Shoulders pattern, a sudden and powerful change of direction came about. As a result, we blasted above the 50-day moving average, moved to an old resistance level, and now find ourselves probing those highs.

Regulators Hone In on Digital Assets as Rules Tighten for Big Crypto Players

Regulators around the world continued to focus on legislating digital assets, as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen outlined the Department’s intention to develop an appropriate U.S. regulatory framework for stablecoins. Yellenconvened the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets (PWG), which was joined by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation with a report on stablecoins soon to be released, and the PWG is expected to issue its recommendations in the coming months.

The sit down took place at the start of the week, as the total stablecoin supply hit $110B; Circle took the opportunity to reveal the assets backing the USDC stablecoin with 61% of the total USDC supply backed by cash or cash equivalents. The remainder of the supply is backed by Yankee CDs, US Treasuries, Commercial Paper, and Corporate Bonds, with a marginal amount backed by Municipal Bonds and US Agencies. Read more.

Please enjoy the August 2021 CryptoCalibur Team Picks Technical Analysis article.
📈📉📈📉📈
——-
https://cryptocalibur.com/cryptocalibur-team-picks-august-2021-technical-analysis

Upcoming ask me anything session with DeFine!

📃 Website
📃 DeFine Telegram

⏰ The AMA will take place on August 3rd, 2021 from 18:00 to 19:00 UTC in our Chat Room.

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DeFine is a social NFT platform for all creators including artists, musicians, influencers, gamers, and athletes. The platform facilitates all social interaction for creators and their fanbase with digital assets.

✅ DeFine aims to provide an all-encompassing Asia-focused NFT Social Platform for creators.
✅ DeFine will build upon its existing NFT marketplace to support the broader NFT market and creator ecosystem.
✅ NFT PLUS - expands the application of NFT outside of artwork by attaching assets to the blockchain and metaverse - will be realased in Q3.
🔥 Backed by Huobi Ventures, Draper Dragon, and more
🔥 Listing premier on Huobi + lock HT and ETH with Primepool to Get 2.25 Million DFA

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AMA will take place in our Chat Room: @cryptocaliburchat

Reminder! AMA with DeFine will take begin in ~5 hours in our chat room.

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Time: 18:00 - 19:00 UTC

The AMA will take place in our Chat Room: @cryptocaliburchat

Today we have Hoon @Myounghoon (Global Operation Lead at DeFine) and Thomas @tcho134 (Head of Business Operations at DeFine) joining us to answer our questions for the next hour.

DeFine is a social NFT platform for all creators including artists, musicians, influencers, gamers, and athletes. The platform facilitates all social interaction for creators and their fanbase with digital assets.

Join & Follow:
- @CryptoCalibur
- @DeFinePlatform
- https://twitter.com/DeFinePlatform

❗️ Do not ask more than 2 questions per message. If you do so, your questions will be deleted. ❗️

Before we begin please:
- Be respectful 🙏
- Try to ask questions which are interesting and unique 🙇
- No foul language ⚠️

Let’s begin! This AMA session will end at 19:00 UTC.

Upcoming ask me anything session with Radix!

📃 Website
📃 Radix Telegram

⏰ The AMA will take place on August 5th, 2021 from 14:00 to 15:00 UTC in our Chat Room.

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Radix is a public decentralized network built specifically to serve DeFi. According to Radix, they are the only decentralized network where developers will be able to build quickly without the constant threat of exploits and hacks.

✅ Radix is building a purpose-built DeFi programming environment that will enable fast & secure development, giving DeFi developers more time to focus on innovation rather than security.
✅ The Radix Engine is designed to change the game by replacing the EVM for a lean, mean, state-executing machine.
🔥 Radix Olympia mainnet is live!
🔥 Radix built their consensus algorithm, Cerberus, to deliver something entirely unique to the blockchain industry — linearly scalable atomic composability for DeFi.

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AMA will take place in our Chat Room: @cryptocaliburchat

Reminder! AMA with Radix will take begin in ~3:30 hours in our chat room.

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Time: 14:00 - 15:00 UTC

The AMA will take place in our Chat Room: @cryptocaliburchat

Today we have Piers Ridyard @piersr (CEO of Radix) joining us to answer our questions for the next hour.

Radix is a public decentralized network built specifically to serve DeFi. According to Radix, they are the only decentralized network where developers will be able to build quickly without the constant threat of exploits and hacks.

Join & Follow:
- @CryptoCalibur
- @radix_dlt
- https://twitter.com/radixdlt

❗️ Do not ask more than 2 questions per message. If you do so, your questions will be deleted. ❗️

Before we begin please:
- Be respectful 🙏
- Try to ask questions which are interesting and unique 🙇
- No foul language ⚠️

Let’s begin! This AMA session will end at 15:00 UTC.

Upcoming ask me anything session with Vaulty!

📃 Website
📃 Vaulty's Telegram

⏰ The AMA will take place on August 11th, 2021 from 15:00 to 16:00 UTC in our Chat Room.

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Vaulty is a decentralized platform designed to bring automatic asset allocation across DeFi instruments. Every vault has its own smart contract with predetermined logic. You can choose your vault and passively earn yields or NFTs.

✅ A clear Go-To market strategy and a strong team already established in crypto.
🔥 The project has implemented the Profit Sharing Model. This model does an auto buyback of $VLTY tokens from the market and distributes those among all $VLTY holders who stake their tokens in the Profit Sharing Pool.
🔥 Multi IDOs on 9th and 10th August!

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AMA will take place in our Chat Room: @cryptocaliburchat

Reminder! AMA with Vaulty will take begin in ~2:30 hours in our chat room.

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Time: 15:00 - 16:00 UTC

The AMA will take place in our Chat Room: @cryptocaliburchat

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CryptoCalibur Team Pick : Asset Removal -- VIDT Datalink (VIDT)
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Greetings everyone.

Today we have made the internal decision to remove VIDT Datalink (VIDT) from our portfolio of Team Picks.

The reasons for the removal are a combination of fundamental and technical issues. Fundamentally speaking, the role of VIDT in the crypto space has become more difficult to understand/forecast in the months following the merger with LTO. The future here is cloudy and uncertain. Technically speaking, VIDT has underperformed going all the way back to the peak of August 2020. In fact, in the recent crypto swoon the project gave back 85% of it's value. Consequently we are taking advantage of the rally from 30 cents to where it stands at 62 cents today to give this portfolio position back to the market.

Results:
Entry: $0.1431
Exit: $0.6220
Profit/(Loss): 334%
——

Please enjoy the September 2021 CryptoCalibur Team Picks Technical Analysis article.
📈📉📈📉📈
——-
https://cryptocalibur.com/cryptocalibur-team-picks-september-2021-technical-analysis

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CryptoCalibur Team Pick - New Selections!
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Today we are making 2 new additions to the CC Team Pick Portfolio, including our first NFT Team Pick.

Portfolio Additions:
1) $10,000 allocation of DYDX @ $11.29 per token.
2) NFT - PUNKS: The Hunt for the Lost Robbies - 8 ETH last sale price per OpenSea = $28,064.

Note: DYDX is a first buy, of what may become a dollar cost average position build.

For more information on our portfolio, please see the September Team Pick TA article:
https://cryptocalibur.com/cryptocalibur-team-picks-september-2021-technical-analysis/