#Bitcoin #BTC #Halvings and Forecasted Supply Crunch

Overview: accounting for increased demand, lower production, and assuming positive regulatory clarity - the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges could drop by 90% within 5 years.

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#Debt Downgrade - Since 2008, the #US has not passed a single budget.

Instead, Congress has repeatedly opted for short-term funding bills, known as Continuing Resolutions, which raised the debt ceiling, and increases spending by 8% annually.

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Analyzing the #Bitcoin Inactive Supply: An Overview

Bitcoin's inactive supply, reflecting the amount of Bitcoin that hasn't moved over a specific time, aids in understanding HODLing behaviors and gauging long-term investor sentiment.

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#SP500 already showed what happens after a low #volatility 6-month compression against the 20M MA with steady MACD convergence approaching a cross. #Crypto lagging and looking to follow.

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#Litecoin price declined post #LTC halving event

The Litecoin halving event was followed by a steep decline in LTC price on #Binance.

Litecoin dropped from its Wednesday high of $94.50 to its August low of $85.61

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The futures basis, the difference in price between monthly settled #bitcoin futures traded on the #CME and the spot price of bitcoin, is showing receding optimism from traders.

The rolling 1-month futures basis, expressed in annualized return terms, closed at over 14% during the spot ETF-fueled rally that touched off in mid-June. Since peaking in early July, however, the futures basis is now down to a low single-digit percent.

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Implied #Volatility Continues to Sink

#Bitcoin’s volatility, as measured by the implied volatility (IV) of at-the-money (#ATM) options, has sunk to new lows amidst rangebound trading and lackluster volumes.

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#Nasdaq100 has shown strong performance despite an increase in 10-year real #yield.

The large divergence indicates that investors are getting too complacent.

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#Bitcoin volume is falling to the lowest level since the end of July 2023, which could suggest a spike in volatility soon.👀

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#Bitcoin price performance has been very positive in 2023.

With a good start in the first quarter that allowed it to reach an annual maximum of #USD 31721 for each #BTC, the asset has achieved a positive performance of up to 76.9% in the first seven months of the year.

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Likely seasonal correction in #SPX 🧐.

Based on the last ten pre-election years, rapid decline (7-10% retraction) in August, followed by rally later in the year.

The main trend remains UP.

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From the beginning of the year, we have seen the #SSR rise from 2.36 to 4.65.

This sharp increase indicates a significant decline in the purchasing power of #stablecoins. This trend has occurred in tandem with the rising price of #Bitcoin.

At the end of July, #Tether’s supply hit an all-time high of $83.89 billion, while #TrueUSD’s supply peaked at $3.04 billion.

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With over 50% growth in #marketcap over the last 30 days, #Optimism is the fastest-growing emerging ecosystem in terms of market cap despite a roughly 25% decline from the broader market over the last 180 days.

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Last week, #Litecoin went through its highly anticipated third halving event, a process that involves reducing miners' block rewards for validating transactions.

The main goal of halving is to control asset inflation and potentially boost the value of #LTC over time if demand increases.

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From: rubikkav.nft

#DYDX ran March's lows during June and has consolidated since.

The price filled most of July 13th's daily gap and bounced. This move could have created support in August 5th's daily gap at $2.0298, which contains the 9, 18, and 40 EMAs. A drop into this gap might reach August 3rd's daily accumulation.

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#Microsoft with ticker #MSFT is already back to all-time highs in an impulsive price action, but it has an unfinished bullish cycle, so there’s no top until we see a completed five-wave rally.

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As short-term (#STH) holders start selling at a loss, whales continue to profit from the B#TC they bought around the $26,000-$25,000 area in early June 👆.

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👀 Meanwhile, the #Bitcoin #Halving Progress is already at 81%! Approximately ~240 days left. Buy now and enjoy it!

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💰 #USDT #Tether depeg is usually a Bullish Mid-Term sign for 💰 #Bitcoin🚀

We recovered after FTX Collapse📈
We recovered after US Regional Banks Bankruns📈
We recovered after SEC📈

Now I also expect a recovery in the mid-term. However short-term we might see some bearish behavior, just do not panic❗️

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#Bitcoin - Structure of the cycle - We are in Phase 1 of the registration cycle.

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Despite years of hoopla, #cryptocurrencies, and #Bitcoin, in particular, is a relatively new asset.

Not surprisingly, the Bitcoin market has struggled with an identity crisis.

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