Domah: 55-60% for Kamala
https://fxtwitter.com/domahhhh/status/1853086999873196202?s=46&t=nluSw7cwYGx8zFxfoYi5Iw
https://fxtwitter.com/domahhhh/status/1853086999873196202?s=46&t=nluSw7cwYGx8zFxfoYi5Iw
FxTwitter / FixupX
Domer (@Domahhhh)
The last important pieces of the polling puzzle are in this morning (NYT polls & Muhlenberg in PA), and I'll say that I think Kamala is now somewhere around 55-60% range to be the next President. Given markets put Trump around 55%, I'm betting a lot on Kam…
Crypto Mumbles
actually INSANE how so many cool ai coins are sitting below 10m rn i don't have enough liquid to bid them all, but i believe this is the only time you can scatter across the proper agents just for this next leg, then consolidate all profits into conviction…
been looking at zerebro since 7m and even shilled to some people but didn’t manage to pull the trigger cause i was greedy for lower and i didn’t wanna risk election volatility
will look for entry post elections
will look for entry post elections
Crypto Mumbles
https://x.com/JoshuaDeuk/status/1853298966391333088
i do agree w joshua tho, sentient time soon
ofc, depending on how the election goes which will either delay or hasten it
i’ve already done my bids and won’t be entering new positions for now
ofc, depending on how the election goes which will either delay or hasten it
i’ve already done my bids and won’t be entering new positions for now
👍2
the only election play i have leading up to it is one that i feel can benefit either way whether trump or kamala wins
extremely short term lowcap play so i only bought a small amount
and i do feel this will pump much more if trump loses given his history of calling elections 'rigged'
either ways its worth an attempt to me
extremely short term lowcap play so i only bought a small amount
and i do feel this will pump much more if trump loses given his history of calling elections 'rigged'
either ways its worth an attempt to me
Forwarded from The Horse Hangout
You know how fast the crypto market can shift, so keep this in mind given it is much more correlated now to tradif:
'In 2016, the U.S. election night turned out to be a striking example of how quickly market sentiment can shift based on unexpected outcomes. Leading up to Election Day, markets had largely priced in a Clinton victory, viewing her as a "status quo" candidate. Futures markets and many global indices rallied in anticipation of her win, reflecting the confidence of a steady policy outlook.
However, as results started coming in on election night and it became clear that Trump had a real path to victory, the market reaction was swift and severe. U.S. stock futures plunged, with Dow futures dropping nearly 800 points at one point as investors grappled with the uncertainty that Trump’s policies might bring. The sell-off was driven by concerns over potential trade wars, shifts in economic policy, and an unpredictable approach to foreign relations.
Yet, remarkably, this intense negative sentiment was short-lived. By the morning after the election, markets reversed course. Investors shifted focus to Trump’s pro-business policies, such as tax cuts and deregulation, which were seen as favorable for corporate growth. This pivot is a clear reminder of how elections can trigger intense volatility, with rapid changes in market direction based on evolving sentiment.'
'In 2016, the U.S. election night turned out to be a striking example of how quickly market sentiment can shift based on unexpected outcomes. Leading up to Election Day, markets had largely priced in a Clinton victory, viewing her as a "status quo" candidate. Futures markets and many global indices rallied in anticipation of her win, reflecting the confidence of a steady policy outlook.
However, as results started coming in on election night and it became clear that Trump had a real path to victory, the market reaction was swift and severe. U.S. stock futures plunged, with Dow futures dropping nearly 800 points at one point as investors grappled with the uncertainty that Trump’s policies might bring. The sell-off was driven by concerns over potential trade wars, shifts in economic policy, and an unpredictable approach to foreign relations.
Yet, remarkably, this intense negative sentiment was short-lived. By the morning after the election, markets reversed course. Investors shifted focus to Trump’s pro-business policies, such as tax cuts and deregulation, which were seen as favorable for corporate growth. This pivot is a clear reminder of how elections can trigger intense volatility, with rapid changes in market direction based on evolving sentiment.'
Forwarded from infinityhedge
HARRIS VS TRUMP ODDS BEFORE ELECTION DAY:
HARRIS WIN:
*54% vs 52%: Predictt
*48% vs 46.8%: 538
*48.8% vs 47.8%: Economist
*49% vs 47%: CNN Poll of Polls
*44% vs 43%: Reuters/Ipsos
TRUMP WIN:
*40.8% vs 59.5%: Polymarket
*45% vs 55%: Kalshi
*49.2% vs 50.4%: NateSilver
*46% vs 54%: thehill
*42.9% vs 56%: RCP Avg.
Election week implied move:^
HARRIS WIN:
*54% vs 52%: Predictt
*48% vs 46.8%: 538
*48.8% vs 47.8%: Economist
*49% vs 47%: CNN Poll of Polls
*44% vs 43%: Reuters/Ipsos
TRUMP WIN:
*40.8% vs 59.5%: Polymarket
*45% vs 55%: Kalshi
*49.2% vs 50.4%: NateSilver
*46% vs 54%: thehill
*42.9% vs 56%: RCP Avg.
Election week implied move:^
Crypto Mumbles
my bids have slowly been filled but will add more aggressively below 450m
this might’ve actually been alfa
possible pico bottom of goat (!pray)
next leg to a billy please
possible pico bottom of goat (!pray)
next leg to a billy please
😁4