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@WatcherGuru

Hyperliquid Points:
- 8M points were distributed for May and 8.4M points for October.
- Final number of points: 57.9M

$dream

been accumulating $tnsr below 5m

1) one of the early Ethereum contributors since 2015
2) good track record of building a successful project - EmblemAI
3) a long consolidating chart looking to expand soon
4) low mindshare as marketing and branding isn't as great (can be fixed easily)

i won't lie and say i know exactly what he is building because it looks different and feels cryptic for now (branding issue), but i feel like something is going on here and most don't know about it yet

balls tingling

Moonshot Global Rank: >500
Moonshot Finance Rank: 117

Coinbase Global Rank: 68
Coinbase Finance Rank: 7

Phantom Global Rank: 66
Phantom Utilities Rank: 3

revisiting

a lot of virtual agents are getting attention right now, notably aixbt and others

i'm proxying all of them by owning virtual to participate in some upside, albeit muted

if this keeps up, virtual will continue grinding upside through the flywheel

its a bit more stress free approach on my end

virtual also has the possibility of an eventual coinbase listing (!pray)

accelerate and give me my virtual god candles

thank you

higher

best thing was that a lot of people faded virtual early on because of the fud and/or luna being inorganic etc.

you had time to accumulate, but everyone was busy boo-ing

for first cyclers, this is THE axs run that we talk about

when shit gets crazy it gets stupid crazy

its the same as luna (terraluna)

whatever has a good flywheel and narrative will simply accelerate in a bullmarket

read again

i do think the winning agent launchpad on sol has yet to be decided, but it seems like vvaifu has the lead for now

with ai16z recovering, vvaifu tags along as well

but i think it has to be clear that vvaifu's flywheel is nowhere as close or good as virtual's, so i don't think the same pa can be expected

a lot of which i have explained before: https://news.1rj.ru/str/cryptomumbles/11337

there is no continuity of value accrual after an agent takes off from the platform

burning supply does nothing when there is no demand

it is something to watch on the sol side along the other launchpads tho

honestly, i don't even know if i'm still keen on launchpad infra for sol, maybe something else

starting to become ultra selective

for better or worse idk yet

added back some blob that i derisked

i think this retrace might be a good opportunity given nothing changed post AI fsh chaos

also, dev has committed to buying back everything that blob sold over time and so far only ~1/5 has been bought back

bringing this back because i think its very relevant right now

helped me to do some thinking as well esp because i've become more selective of my trades over time

I want to experiment with sharing general think pieces and investing insights in here. If you guys like them please let me know, if not I'll try to stick to analysis / calls and opportunities only.

A lot of us are probably too jaded from gripto influencers / pnl larps with brain damage to really take anyone seriously when they claim to be sharing genuine advice or insight but I'd like to help those of you that want to actually improve their performance. I'll start with this.

One piece of advice that I've noticed that 99% of you need after spending the past couple of days in the t.me/thectrlroom group chat is this. Do not take every profitable trade.

It seems like a no-brainer that you should be taking every profitable opportunity that presents itself, but this is one of the most common mistakes I see amongst traders and it has severe consequences. It feels more prevalent now than ever this cycle, so I think you could all use this reminder.

You are not a fucking index fund. If you have conviction in two potential trades, and you are certain that trade A will yield 300%+ returns and trade B will yield 200%+ returns, you do not go 50/50. You do not throw 90% into the former and 10% in the latter to have some exposure. You shove the stack into trade A and forget about trade B.

Too many of you fail to understand this and end up chasing every little thing that has a good thing going for it because you don't want anyone to make a dollar without you. And then you end up with 20 tokens in your portfolio at once, across multiple wallets, and it's so overwhelming and difficult to focus on your trading that you can't even keep up with all of them and you just end up sticking to the 3 you care the most about and letting the rest sit, never touching the ones that go down because maybe they'll go up eventually. And then you become a bagholder.

Sound familiar?

You need to not do that if you want to make it this cycle. You will see people win big on chains you've never used, altcoins you've never heard of, airdrops you don't qualify for, and technology you don't even understand. It does not fucking matter. Do not open 1000 tabs and fry your brain trying to understand hyperliquid quantum omnistaking while researching phygital mongolian NFTs and rehypothecated RWAs.

Your goal is not to hit 100% of the opportunities of this cycle. Your goal is to miss 90% of the opportunities because you were busy making sure that 10% of the bets that you took were right. You will make money if you are correct. Not if you are diversified.

The trading principle of risk-return tradeoff applies to even shitcoins just as much as it does to equities. All you should care about when comparing your adjacent options is risk-return ratio. Find opportunities with good R/R. Study them carefully and find the edge that improves your R/R. Take those bets.

If I find something that I believe has a risk-return ratio of 1:10 and you tell me that I should really get in $BONK because it's going to 2x I'm going to tell you to fuck off. Why the fuck would I put a single dollar into bonk that I could put into my winner.

Diversification is for people that are confused. The less confused you are, the less you'll hold at any given moment. Don't be diversified. Just be right and accept that if you're wrong you'll eat shit and try to improve your judgement before the next winner comes around.

this is a similar thought process that i had when assessing ai16z and vvaifu

i know that in time both will trend back up and in fact i was considering positioning in vvaifu at 50m yesterday, but chose not to take the trade for a few reasons

mostly boiled down to conviction and r/r on the upside

i do think sometimes free money should be picked, but maybe not all the time especially when opp cost is involved

a huge struggle for most is being at peace with missing runners

i think i'm slowly getting there, pretty zen esp when you realise that you can't catch every single trade

as long as majority of my portfolio is allocated in what i believe are high r/r bets

once you're at peace with the fact, i think trading mental gets a lot better