bringing this back because i think its very relevant right now

helped me to do some thinking as well esp because i've become more selective of my trades over time

I want to experiment with sharing general think pieces and investing insights in here. If you guys like them please let me know, if not I'll try to stick to analysis / calls and opportunities only.

A lot of us are probably too jaded from gripto influencers / pnl larps with brain damage to really take anyone seriously when they claim to be sharing genuine advice or insight but I'd like to help those of you that want to actually improve their performance. I'll start with this.

One piece of advice that I've noticed that 99% of you need after spending the past couple of days in the t.me/thectrlroom group chat is this. Do not take every profitable trade.

It seems like a no-brainer that you should be taking every profitable opportunity that presents itself, but this is one of the most common mistakes I see amongst traders and it has severe consequences. It feels more prevalent now than ever this cycle, so I think you could all use this reminder.

You are not a fucking index fund. If you have conviction in two potential trades, and you are certain that trade A will yield 300%+ returns and trade B will yield 200%+ returns, you do not go 50/50. You do not throw 90% into the former and 10% in the latter to have some exposure. You shove the stack into trade A and forget about trade B.

Too many of you fail to understand this and end up chasing every little thing that has a good thing going for it because you don't want anyone to make a dollar without you. And then you end up with 20 tokens in your portfolio at once, across multiple wallets, and it's so overwhelming and difficult to focus on your trading that you can't even keep up with all of them and you just end up sticking to the 3 you care the most about and letting the rest sit, never touching the ones that go down because maybe they'll go up eventually. And then you become a bagholder.

Sound familiar?

You need to not do that if you want to make it this cycle. You will see people win big on chains you've never used, altcoins you've never heard of, airdrops you don't qualify for, and technology you don't even understand. It does not fucking matter. Do not open 1000 tabs and fry your brain trying to understand hyperliquid quantum omnistaking while researching phygital mongolian NFTs and rehypothecated RWAs.

Your goal is not to hit 100% of the opportunities of this cycle. Your goal is to miss 90% of the opportunities because you were busy making sure that 10% of the bets that you took were right. You will make money if you are correct. Not if you are diversified.

The trading principle of risk-return tradeoff applies to even shitcoins just as much as it does to equities. All you should care about when comparing your adjacent options is risk-return ratio. Find opportunities with good R/R. Study them carefully and find the edge that improves your R/R. Take those bets.

If I find something that I believe has a risk-return ratio of 1:10 and you tell me that I should really get in $BONK because it's going to 2x I'm going to tell you to fuck off. Why the fuck would I put a single dollar into bonk that I could put into my winner.

Diversification is for people that are confused. The less confused you are, the less you'll hold at any given moment. Don't be diversified. Just be right and accept that if you're wrong you'll eat shit and try to improve your judgement before the next winner comes around.

this is a similar thought process that i had when assessing ai16z and vvaifu

i know that in time both will trend back up and in fact i was considering positioning in vvaifu at 50m yesterday, but chose not to take the trade for a few reasons

mostly boiled down to conviction and r/r on the upside

i do think sometimes free money should be picked, but maybe not all the time especially when opp cost is involved

a huge struggle for most is being at peace with missing runners

i think i'm slowly getting there, pretty zen esp when you realise that you can't catch every single trade

as long as majority of my portfolio is allocated in what i believe are high r/r bets

once you're at peace with the fact, i think trading mental gets a lot better

if you rephrase the message, i think it also boils to this: https://news.1rj.ru/str/cryptomumbles/11298

if you've traded on virtuals, you might have received a free $music airdrop

i got mine and will probably just hold since its a small one

this can be huge

https://fxtwitter.com/virtuals_io/status/1861437528236270025

seems like im not the only one

https://x.com/larpalt/status/1861737632822182161

that was the blob bottom

JUST IN: 🇨🇦 Vancouver Mayor proposes motion for the city to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

@WatcherGuru

the ticker is still $dream

Hyperliquid Points Valuation Chart

How people think bull markets are:

Buy a coin ->10x within 12 hours, sell then move on to the next -> 5x within 24 hours -> sell then move on and repeat

What really happens:

Buy coin that is pumping -> immediately lose 35%, coin then goes sideways, don't wanna sell for a loss in a bull, other coins pumping -> capitulate and move onto next pumping coin, same thing happens, down 40% in an hour, coin you sold goes up 10x -> reeeeeeeee