at this stage i also believe that its very hard to displace current leaders, even if you think the tech or content is better

targets like "xxx will flip ai16z" is honestly unlikely

leaders serve as the lid to a vertical or subsector and while it is possible to flip, a very very strong case is needed (eg. goat remained stale since day 1)

with every next iteration the valuation gets lower (wif > popcat > fwog > ...), or what we call death spiral

if you want to try catching a new leader, then its better to look at undiscovered subsectors instead of ones with existing lids

been doing some reflections for the year and goal setting for 2025, so i wanted to share 3 of my reflections for 2024 that might be helpful

1) the butterfly effect

when looking back i was reminded of how i started crypto in the first place. the small action of reading up on crypto has led to the creation of this channel and the pnl that i have now, not forgetting the friends ive made along the way. i never expected CM to have the audience it has rn. better to fail trying than regretting, so take that small action in 2025 and your future self might thank you.

choose to take action.

2) 0 -> 1

0->1 is often the hardest step. don’t let ct shame you into believing a certain level of wealth is not enough. there is a huge diff in a safe 5% yield on 5 figs vs 5% on high 6 or even 7 figs. your job is to achieve 0->1 to your desired amounts and then safely compound to achieve 1->2. you DO NOT have to rush the entire process and try to make retirement money in one cycle, while risking everything all at once.

its what you keep, not make.

3) reflections

whether in life or in crypto, reflecting and journaling has helped me a long way and i believe it is one of the best +ev habits in life. just like how i look back on trading mistakes and improve on them, i do the same for decisions and events irl.

i believe trading performance and life are symbiotic, whereby you cannot excel in one without the other. in fact, trading is a subset of life. habits that carry you through life will also proportionately affect your trading. mental serenity in life will grant you clarity in trading. a positive mindset in life will give you optimism and an 'i can do it' mindset in the markets.

we've all heard of comeback stories in crypto, and not a single one could have happened if they gave up on improving their game and the game itself. this is also a trait that i've seen in a lot of top tier traders. coincidence? i think not.

reflect, reflect, and reflect.
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it has been a great 2024 despite all the ups and downs, and i hope it has been the same for everyone. it has been a good year for CM too, reaching 6k subs organically through mumbling. i thank you all for the support and for being here!

i wish for an awesome 2025 and for everyone to be happy, healthy, and wealthy, in order of importance. if i have helped you this year no matter how marginal, then i think i have succeeded w CM and i am satisfied.

enjoy your nye everyone,
cheers!

happy new year all :-)

heading into 2025: end game, keeping things very simple

i'm only keen on AI and hyperliquid eco

majority of pf will be just riding leaders and i will allocate 10% to small caps

upon reaching cycle goal, i will likely be cashing out 90% and running with the remaining 10%

$snai bros once again winning

i wonder how the market will value things in the future when a company has both a token and shares

how do we bid and how will the market determine appropriate valuations for each side? what is the balance?

will there even be a case of a company having both shares and token economy?

as i've shared before, ai is a great sector to be in because nobody knows how to value it

as we move on in the cycle, more numbers will come in and the glass ceilings will eventually be set, tokens will be pegged to revenues and such

that will be a good time to exit

it will happen

ownership was always the eventual game from the start

The suspected Virtuals Protocol official address: 0xBe…c126 withdrew 4 million VIRTUAL (worth about $16.28 million) from Virtuals Protocol: LP Wallet at 13:47-13:48 UTC+8 today, and then transferred 1 million VIRTUAL ($4.07 million) to Bybit Deposit. Since December, the suspected Virtuals Protocol official address: 0xBe…c126 has transferred about $62.56 million worth of VIRTUAL to CEX. — link

The Usual protocol experienced a massive USD0 sell-off today triggered by a single whale’s trade on the secondary market, which raised doubts about the USD0 peg. USD0 briefly dipped to $0.99 before re-pegging to $1 within a few seconds, initially with some bps deviation due to constant sell-offs, and then re-pegging after a few hours. — link