Forwarded from QCP Broadcast
QCP Asia Colour – 14 January 25
The global market has caught up with the recalibration of the Fed rate cut outlook. The 10Y yield surged to 4.8%, its highest since late 2023, with markets now pricing no rate cuts until October. Equities futures opened 1.5% lower, sending Bitcoin below $90k before a steady recovery to above $95k.
What’s Next?
Key PPI and CPI data are on the horizon. We think potential surprises could come on the upside, as markets begin to adjust to the reality of a prolonged higher-rate environment, with some even entertaining the possibility of a rate hike.
The momentum in rising yields could test financial market resilience. In crypto, cautious sentiment is evident in BTC options flows, with puts rolled below the key $90k support. Front-end vols and flies remain elevated, while the VIX stays high at 18.68 - suggesting volatility to persist through January.
Still, there’s hope for a catalyst. Reports suggest Trump may sign executive orders on day one, addressing “de-banking” and repealing a contentious crypto accounting policy, which could provide a boost to the market.
The global market has caught up with the recalibration of the Fed rate cut outlook. The 10Y yield surged to 4.8%, its highest since late 2023, with markets now pricing no rate cuts until October. Equities futures opened 1.5% lower, sending Bitcoin below $90k before a steady recovery to above $95k.
What’s Next?
Key PPI and CPI data are on the horizon. We think potential surprises could come on the upside, as markets begin to adjust to the reality of a prolonged higher-rate environment, with some even entertaining the possibility of a rate hike.
The momentum in rising yields could test financial market resilience. In crypto, cautious sentiment is evident in BTC options flows, with puts rolled below the key $90k support. Front-end vols and flies remain elevated, while the VIX stays high at 18.68 - suggesting volatility to persist through January.
Still, there’s hope for a catalyst. Reports suggest Trump may sign executive orders on day one, addressing “de-banking” and repealing a contentious crypto accounting policy, which could provide a boost to the market.
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Forwarded from Walter Bloomberg
*US DEC. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US DEC. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 3.3% Y/Y; EST. +3.4%
*US DEC. CORE PPI UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US DEC. CORE PPI RISES 3.5% Y/Y; EST. +3.8%
(@WalterBloomberg)
*US DEC. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 3.3% Y/Y; EST. +3.4%
*US DEC. CORE PPI UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US DEC. CORE PPI RISES 3.5% Y/Y; EST. +3.8%
(@WalterBloomberg)
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reduced my book, because i feel like i run better w a smaller book
also feel like i need to spend some time to familiarise myself with the intermediate steps before moving to the advanced levels
gotta grow my glass
largely because i feel a lot of real world absolute value of the numbers
an old article i wrote on what i'm talking about:
https://medium.com/@dpycm/the-glass-of-wealth-1140df3a8057
also feel like i need to spend some time to familiarise myself with the intermediate steps before moving to the advanced levels
gotta grow my glass
largely because i feel a lot of real world absolute value of the numbers
an old article i wrote on what i'm talking about:
https://medium.com/@dpycm/the-glass-of-wealth-1140df3a8057
Medium
The Glass of Wealth
How wealth depends on the glass holding it
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Forwarded from Alpha
CPI: +2.9% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +2.9%)
U.S. CORE CPI: +3.2% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +3.3%)
U.S. CORE CPI: +3.2% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +3.3%)
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Forwarded from Zoomer News
US GOVERNMENT SAYS 120,000 BITCOIN STOLEN IN 2016 HACK SHOULD BE RETURNED TO BITFINEX: FILING
🔗 velo.xyz
🔗 velo.xyz
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Forwarded from unfolded. DeFi
Justin Sun announced that TRON will launch its 'USDD 2.0' stablecoin with a 20% APY — link
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check your jupiter airdrop here!
its actually pretty decent if you've been organically using jup
https://earndrop.io/jupiter
its actually pretty decent if you've been organically using jup
https://earndrop.io/jupiter
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Crypto Mumbles
i think after this cycle we’re gonna have a loooong winter in the grand scheme of things the end of this cycle should be equivalent to the dotcom bubble bursting then we slowly build again and then the real super apps will come and less than 1% of current…
🧵 Thread • FxTwitter / FixupX
Ari Paul ⛓️ (@AriDavidPaul)
One of the few times in ~8 years where I’ve disagreed with you. My mental model is closer to 1999 tech bubble. Yes blockchain may be our future as .coms were in 1999…but mostly not these protocols or tokens and we have a 10x-50x valuation gap. That bubble…
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Forwarded from Tree News (Ekata)
Trump Is Open To The Idea Of Creating A Reserve With Coins Made In The US: NYP
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added a small bag of $beats on hl
looks like a bottom has been found and the product works pretty well last ive checked
looks to be good rr
looks like a bottom has been found and the product works pretty well last ive checked
looks to be good rr
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Forwarded from unfolded. DeFi
L2s crossed $500B in all-time volume on the Uniswap Protocol — link
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