Forwarded from infinityhedge
Trump's Liberation Day: tldr
Trump will announce tariffs at Rose Garden April 2nd at 4pm ET
*Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea, EU and others has said they will put retaliatory tariffs if US goes ahead with reciprocal tariffs.
*Trump said TikTok deal might link to China tariffs.
*Trump said will impose additional tariffs on Russian oil if unable to make a deal on Ukraine.
*Trump threatens bombing & secondary tariffs on Iran if Tehran does not make a deal on nuclear program.
*Trump said he's committed to sectoral tariffs.
*Trump said tariffs will be mutual, but we will be more pleasant, relatively lenient on tariffs... It's reciprocal, but we might be even nicer than that.
*Trump said If you do tariff exemptions for one, you have to do for all...There will be flexibility on tariffs. Basically it's reciprocal.
*Tariffs impact on US including imposed & threatened tariffs: $785B (world), $606B (EU), $445B (china) and $727B or ~$100B (Canada & Mexico depending on USMCA goods get targeted or not)
*Trump has made up his mind on tariffs, on what he’ll announce on April 2nd.
*Reciprocal Tariffs will be on all countries and will take effect immediately following the announcement.
Trump will announce tariffs at Rose Garden April 2nd at 4pm ET
*Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea, EU and others has said they will put retaliatory tariffs if US goes ahead with reciprocal tariffs.
*Trump said TikTok deal might link to China tariffs.
*Trump said will impose additional tariffs on Russian oil if unable to make a deal on Ukraine.
*Trump threatens bombing & secondary tariffs on Iran if Tehran does not make a deal on nuclear program.
*Trump said he's committed to sectoral tariffs.
*Trump said tariffs will be mutual, but we will be more pleasant, relatively lenient on tariffs... It's reciprocal, but we might be even nicer than that.
*Trump said If you do tariff exemptions for one, you have to do for all...There will be flexibility on tariffs. Basically it's reciprocal.
*Tariffs impact on US including imposed & threatened tariffs: $785B (world), $606B (EU), $445B (china) and $727B or ~$100B (Canada & Mexico depending on USMCA goods get targeted or not)
*Trump has made up his mind on tariffs, on what he’ll announce on April 2nd.
*Reciprocal Tariffs will be on all countries and will take effect immediately following the announcement.
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Forwarded from Walter Bloomberg
FINANCIAL ANALYSTS SPLIT ON TRUMP’S TARIFFS
BULLISH VIEWS:
🔸 FUNDSTRAT: Predicts a V-shaped rebound if tariffs are targeted, arguing markets have overcorrected (-8% S&P 500) and clarity could spark a rally.
🔸 Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent: Sees tariffs as a negotiable cap, easing worst-case fears and potentially stabilizing markets.
BEARISH VIEWS:
🔸 YARDENI RESEARCH: Calls tariffs a "wrecking ball", raising stagflation risk to 45%, warning of higher inflation, recession, and supply chain disruptions.
🔸 GOLDMAN SACHS: Increases U.S. recession odds to 35%, citing GDP drag from weaker investment, higher costs, and global retaliation.
🔸 LPL FINANCIAL: Sees stagflation risk, corporate earnings pressure, and rising market volatility (VIX at 24.80).
🔸 WEDBUSH: Calls auto tariffs a “hurricane-like headwind”, predicting $10,000 price hikes and profit squeezes.
NEUTRAL/MIXED VIEWS:
🔸 CRESSET CAPITAL: Stresses risk management, saying markets could bounce or break post-announcement.
🔸 TS LOMBARD: Finds panic overblown, arguing markets already priced in tariffs.
🔸 STATE STREET: Says financial impact depends on tariff severity (narrow vs. broad).
🔸 PANTHEON MACROECONOMICS: Cautions against assuming manufacturing strength is sustainable.
KEY FINANCIAL THEMES:
🔸 Uncertainty fuels volatility: Markets await 4 PM EDT details, unsure if tariffs will be 10%-20% tiered, reciprocal, or flat 20%.
(@WalterBloomberg)
BULLISH VIEWS:
🔸 FUNDSTRAT: Predicts a V-shaped rebound if tariffs are targeted, arguing markets have overcorrected (-8% S&P 500) and clarity could spark a rally.
🔸 Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent: Sees tariffs as a negotiable cap, easing worst-case fears and potentially stabilizing markets.
BEARISH VIEWS:
🔸 YARDENI RESEARCH: Calls tariffs a "wrecking ball", raising stagflation risk to 45%, warning of higher inflation, recession, and supply chain disruptions.
🔸 GOLDMAN SACHS: Increases U.S. recession odds to 35%, citing GDP drag from weaker investment, higher costs, and global retaliation.
🔸 LPL FINANCIAL: Sees stagflation risk, corporate earnings pressure, and rising market volatility (VIX at 24.80).
🔸 WEDBUSH: Calls auto tariffs a “hurricane-like headwind”, predicting $10,000 price hikes and profit squeezes.
NEUTRAL/MIXED VIEWS:
🔸 CRESSET CAPITAL: Stresses risk management, saying markets could bounce or break post-announcement.
🔸 TS LOMBARD: Finds panic overblown, arguing markets already priced in tariffs.
🔸 STATE STREET: Says financial impact depends on tariff severity (narrow vs. broad).
🔸 PANTHEON MACROECONOMICS: Cautions against assuming manufacturing strength is sustainable.
KEY FINANCIAL THEMES:
🔸 Uncertainty fuels volatility: Markets await 4 PM EDT details, unsure if tariffs will be 10%-20% tiered, reciprocal, or flat 20%.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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Forwarded from unfolded.
Fidelity Lets Investors Directly Invest in Crypto Through New Retirement Plan
Forwarded from Shoal Research Hub
Justin Sun Says that First Digital Trust (FDT) Is Insolvent, Recommends Users Take Immediate Steps To Secure Assets
Source: https://x.com/justinsuntron/status/1907453216524243373
Source: https://x.com/justinsuntron/status/1907453216524243373
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Forwarded from Zoomer News
Forwarded from Walter Bloomberg
*TRUMP ON MARKET REACTION: IT'S GOING VERY WELL
(@WalterBloomberg)
(@WalterBloomberg)
Forwarded from Walter Bloomberg
*TRUMP: MARKET IS GOING TO BOOM
(@WalterBloomberg)
(@WalterBloomberg)