Forwarded from QCP Broadcast
QCP Asia Colour - 11 July 2025
Happy All-Time Highs
One hundred and eighteen thousand U.S. dollars. That’s where Bitcoin trades this morning, a milestone level that reflects both exuberance and structural strength.
Macro Driver No. 1: Frontloading Ahead of Tariffs
The Trump tariff flywheel is back in motion as global manufacturers and exporters accelerate imports, inventory buildup and production to preempt implementation. This frontloading wave has triggered a significant expansion in trade and manufacturing credit, a form of just-in-case financing that reflects the lingering uncertainty of prior tariff cycles.
Will Trump delay implementation once again? That remains to be seen. But repeated cycles of tariff threats and postponements have contributed to positive uncertainty. Business sentiment and manufacturing indices have remained firmly in expansion territory.
A key signal lies in copper prices, often referred to as Doctor Copper for their predictive power in macroeconomic health. Prices have climbed alongside industrial demand and improving liquidity conditions.
Macro Driver No. 2: Fiscal Dominance in Full Force
As previously highlighted, U.S. financial conditions remain loose despite elevated Fed policy rates. The result is a Goldilocks-like equilibrium where consumer price inflation remains contained while economic activity continues to expand.
The real engine behind this dynamic is fiscal dominance. High interest rates are leading to larger interest payments by the Treasury. These flows are a net positive for the U.S. economy when reinvested into household and corporate balance sheets. Bondholders, particularly cash-rich tech firms, financial institutions and HNWIs, are the key beneficiaries.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury under Bessant is deploying an Activist Issuance Strategy. It has been issuing short-term Treasury bills and using the proceeds to repurchase off-the-run longer-dated bonds. This approach effectively monetises the debt maturity profile and helps to reduce rate volatility.
Short-dated bills are increasingly treated as cash equivalents, and the relative suppression of long-term issuance has helped keep the MOVE index low and credit spreads tight. This has created an environment where financial assets can steadily move higher, supported by strong nominal growth.
Signs of Froth = Signs of Mass Adoption?
With copper and global equity indices breaking to new highs, it is reasonable to see monetary debasement hedges such as gold and Bitcoin following suit. Inflows into ETFs and publicly traded crypto treasuries continue to outpace token issuance and miner selling.
This momentum may feed on itself. As long as ETF shares and crypto-treasury equities trade at a premium to NAV, the structural bid remains in place.
Leading indicators include: Strategy’s preferred STRK shares holding firm, and SharpLink consistently absorbing ETH-related selling.
As one seasoned observer put it, "signs of froth are often indistinguishable from signs of mass adoption."
Happy All-Time Highs
One hundred and eighteen thousand U.S. dollars. That’s where Bitcoin trades this morning, a milestone level that reflects both exuberance and structural strength.
Macro Driver No. 1: Frontloading Ahead of Tariffs
The Trump tariff flywheel is back in motion as global manufacturers and exporters accelerate imports, inventory buildup and production to preempt implementation. This frontloading wave has triggered a significant expansion in trade and manufacturing credit, a form of just-in-case financing that reflects the lingering uncertainty of prior tariff cycles.
Will Trump delay implementation once again? That remains to be seen. But repeated cycles of tariff threats and postponements have contributed to positive uncertainty. Business sentiment and manufacturing indices have remained firmly in expansion territory.
A key signal lies in copper prices, often referred to as Doctor Copper for their predictive power in macroeconomic health. Prices have climbed alongside industrial demand and improving liquidity conditions.
Macro Driver No. 2: Fiscal Dominance in Full Force
As previously highlighted, U.S. financial conditions remain loose despite elevated Fed policy rates. The result is a Goldilocks-like equilibrium where consumer price inflation remains contained while economic activity continues to expand.
The real engine behind this dynamic is fiscal dominance. High interest rates are leading to larger interest payments by the Treasury. These flows are a net positive for the U.S. economy when reinvested into household and corporate balance sheets. Bondholders, particularly cash-rich tech firms, financial institutions and HNWIs, are the key beneficiaries.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury under Bessant is deploying an Activist Issuance Strategy. It has been issuing short-term Treasury bills and using the proceeds to repurchase off-the-run longer-dated bonds. This approach effectively monetises the debt maturity profile and helps to reduce rate volatility.
Short-dated bills are increasingly treated as cash equivalents, and the relative suppression of long-term issuance has helped keep the MOVE index low and credit spreads tight. This has created an environment where financial assets can steadily move higher, supported by strong nominal growth.
Signs of Froth = Signs of Mass Adoption?
With copper and global equity indices breaking to new highs, it is reasonable to see monetary debasement hedges such as gold and Bitcoin following suit. Inflows into ETFs and publicly traded crypto treasuries continue to outpace token issuance and miner selling.
This momentum may feed on itself. As long as ETF shares and crypto-treasury equities trade at a premium to NAV, the structural bid remains in place.
Leading indicators include: Strategy’s preferred STRK shares holding firm, and SharpLink consistently absorbing ETH-related selling.
As one seasoned observer put it, "signs of froth are often indistinguishable from signs of mass adoption."
🔥2😱1
Forwarded from aggrnews
SHARPLINK GAMING ACQUIRES 10,000 ETH DIRECTLY FROM THE ETHEREUM FOUNDATION: GNW
😁3
Forwarded from Watcher Guru
Forwarded from Tariffs (synoptic.com)
BBG: *TRUMP SAYS US WILL IMPOSE 30% TARIFFS ON EU, MEXICO FROM AUG. 1
congrats to those that managed to get some pump tokens
let’s see how it plays out
let’s see how it plays out
Forwarded from Wu Blockchain News
PUMP token public sale has completed 100% of sales progress. PUMP sale has ended, and the public sale of $600 million took 12 minutes. — link
my favorite quote by an analyst went something like ‘i can tell if you think tesla is under or overvalued by how you feel towards elon musk’
how we perceive value is changing, some companies that i know have a better product and team than their competitors struggle to raise or get traction because they simply lack the ability to create internet native value
https://x.com/howdymerry/status/1944148406261477701
X (formerly Twitter)
mary (@howdymerry) on X
internet capital markets doesn’t mean any failing b2b saas company can go public on the blockchain and suddenly get flush with liquidity
it means that there is enormous demand for internet native value that is unmet in traditional markets
it’s demand for…
it means that there is enormous demand for internet native value that is unmet in traditional markets
it’s demand for…
Forwarded from Watcher Guru