some old polls to look back at:

eth top
https://news.1rj.ru/str/cryptomumbles/15474

market top
https://news.1rj.ru/str/cryptomumbles/14687

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said Bitcoin is declining as selling pressure persists and fresh capital inflows have dried up. He added that without major selling from MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, a deep 70% crash like past cycles is unlikely, but warned the market has not yet found a clear bottom and may enter a prolonged sideways consolidation. — link

BINANCE SAFU FUND HAS BOUGHT 1315 BTC ($100.7M)

SOURCE

i remember reading an old article on ct describing how the market has been rewarding wrong takes and a lot of us have carried that same mentality thinking that we were right since we were rewarded

but in fact a lot of folks will eventually be punished

nearest examples being

xxx is consensus now, this must be top
xxx has the lowest sentiment, this must be bottom

in the past, we were actually rewarded by taking trades like these, so most people actually do carry forward these kinds of reasoning

but i think we will eventually run out of chances to be wrong and make money

can't blame ourselves because we got pavlov-ed from how the market worked previously and we simply try to repeat what worked to make money again and again

just can't be too comfortable w the conditioning and assume status quo moving forward

then again, who is to say what reasonings are right or wrong

since its always price <> narrative

you are always wrong until the price goes up and suddenly you are right

TRUMP LAUNCHES $12 BILLION MINERALS STOCKPILE TO COUNTER CHINA
(@WalterBloomberg)

Strategy disclosed it acquired 855 BTC for approximately $75.3 million, at an average price of $87,974 per BTC. As of Feb 1, 2026, the company holds 713,502 BTC, acquired for about $54.26 billion, with an average cost of $76,052 per bitcoin. — link

HyperCore will support outcome trading (HIP-4). Outcomes are fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range. They are a general-purpose primitive that are useful for applications such as prediction markets and bounded options-like instruments. There has been extensive user demand in both of these areas, and builders will likely think of novel applications as well.

Outcomes bring non-linearity, dated contracts, and an alternative form of derivative trading that does not involve leverage or liquidations. The outcome primitive expands the expressivity of HyperCore, while composing with other primitives such as portfolio margin and the HyperEVM.

Outcomes are a work in progress and currently only being tested on testnet. Canonical markets based on objective settlement sources will be deployed once technical development is complete. Canonical markets will be denominated in USDH. Pending user feedback, the infrastructure will be extended to permissionless deployment.