Ultimately, Hayek explains why prices work. Taleb explains what keeps them honest. Surowiecki describes when the mechanism holds and when it breaks. And Soros, who understood all three principles via his practical wisdom and edge, got filthy rich trading the difference.

Prediction markets like Polymarket are the simplest, most elegant test case for this entire framework. They isolate a single question. They require real capital. They resolve against an objective outcome. They let us watch, in real time, whether a decentralized collection of financially exposed participants produces better forecasts than a centralized collection of credentialed experts with NOTHING on the line.