Crypto Mumbles – Telegram
Crypto Mumbles
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things I mumble to myself about crypto

basically my transparent crypto diary

education, analysis, and trades 🙂

Twitter: https://twitter.com/dpycm
Medium: https://medium.com/@dpycm
Lifemax (non-crypto): t.me/humblespace
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Crypto Mumbles
would take a trade on matic at the two green boxes laddering some limit longs
for MATIC

trying to become more of a mechanical trader so i think in hindsight i still would have taken the trade

limit longs got picked up and price ran up halfway before btc dumped

> into the trade journal
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tbh on $APE:

- selling momentum has slowed down
- strength proven in the recent days (market red days $ape remains green)
- in today's dump $ape barely fell more than 1% while 90% of alts fell 4 to 7%
- on the verge of breaking out of 4h falling wedge
- rewkang's thesis here -> https://news.1rj.ru/str/cryptomumbles/3576
- great RR, risking 20% for 200% in the medium term

sounds decent for a bid if you're not particular about entries
Crypto Mumbles
tbh on $APE: - selling momentum has slowed down - strength proven in the recent days (market red days $ape remains green) - in today's dump $ape barely fell more than 1% while 90% of alts fell 4 to 7% - on the verge of breaking out of 4h falling wedge - rewkang's…
issues:
- NFT market is capitulating
- utility for $APE?
- no strong narrative for it other than SEC
- 8% inflation unlock next month on the 16th, followed by 2% linearly unlocks every month on the 16th
Crypto Mumbles
https://twitter.com/Spartadex_io/status/1679551903745863680?s=20
participated in the lockdrop on weth/arb and usdt/usdc.e

plan is to lock early (15% boost) for a comfortable amount of time and sell out after receiving the $sparta airdrop, 50% TGE

idt i'll be participating in phase 2 as the duration is fixed at 26 weeks

but if you do participate in phase 2 you can get another 1% of the $sparta supply, 100% at TGE
arb back into range

usual range plays should work here

also gotta hedge the arb i locked 🤠
Crypto Mumbles
potentially a big trade here on doge a 903 days old pattern whichever side it breaks it’ll likely be a big move over time return of the king?? 🤡🤠
with speculations of elon integrating doge into X, doge has been approaching the trendline and is trading pretty close now

i think the actual announcement might be the catalyst for it to break upside for a bit

don't think i'll participate tho (might regret this) cause i'd rather sit on my hands for now while waiting to deploy other alts at lower levels

sometimes alpha is doing nothing
Crypto Mumbles
https://twitter.com/poopmandefi/status/1683477548926222337?s=21&t=qekTKxa5bcRz3x58kWdIgQ
in the past 24h, unibot generated 300e in tax

of this amount:
- 134.6 ETH (45%) goes to holders
- 134 ETH (44%) goes to the Team
- 33.5 ETH (11%) goes to LP as an incentive

pretty crazy to me that the team is taking 44%

the idea of telegram bot trading is there, simplifying dex trading and making it very accessible

imo telegram bots will likely remain mostly as a tool for degens to ape quickly in and out of positions esp when shitcoins move so quickly

it is unlikely for most traders to require telegram bot as
(1) professional traders dont usually trade on the move
(2) most people are not big time shitcoiners
(3) plenty of perp dexs for liquid coins
(4) easy buy/sell on cex platforms if not dex
(5) imagine mass adoption has happened 15 years later, if you're a new normie entering crypto would you prefer onboarding an app to start investing or a telegram bot (assuming you plan to invest in liquid coins)

which limits telegram trading bots to mostly shitcoining UNLESS telegram trading bots are integrated with dexs like uniswap (but uniswap already has its own app??)

in this case, why would a dex not build its own telegram bot and integrate themselves instead (or actually just build their own trading app for that matter)
- personally, app > telegram bot because its simply cleaner, less clunky, more professional (consumer confidence)
- i don't think it takes a lot of skill or capital to build a telegram trading bot, given that so many different bots have sprung out after unibot's pump
- if you can build a dex i think you can definitely build a telegram trading bot

which also leads into the point of what moat does unibot have? because i don't see any strong moats
- i believe the community is there for the pump and will fade away when prices does
- unibot has 5% buy/sell tax and the team is taking 44% of profits -> if a new project can do the same bot with lesser buy/sell tax and/or distribute more profits to holders, then won't users flock over instead?

yes, there is still runway and upside but i doubt the longevity and potential (glass ceiling in market capture) unless they pivot/expand into other business sectors. imagine 80% of your current revenue comes from buy/sell tax... what happens when the music stops? but not to discredit the 20% that came from fees (~$2.5mil monthly) which is still respectable and decent

edit: $2.5mil monthly calculated by assuming unibot is able to achieve the same fees as 24th jul (46e) consistently for 30 days

just a ramble of my 2 cents, just a pleb no gigabrain

tldr;
unibot or telegram trading bots that are built solely for trading will likely only be able to operate within the shitcoin category. hence, a seasonal product that peaks during shitcoin szn.
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Gong Jiao Wei 巩娇玮
https://twitter.com/definalist/status/1683850778107330560?s=20
not sure how true that GCR bought hpos10i but if he did then at least we're on the right bet 🫡