[Reflections]

i have been actively trying to size better since my last reflection on sizing. although i do wish that i sized more for this trade initially, its the hindsight clarity speaking. at that point in time, the supply control was a huge risk factor despite a clear thesis on the project, making it bad risk management to oversize.

regardless, i do think i sized this trade well given the risk/reward/conviction ratio then. it was slightly higher than the sweet spot between being too comfortable and being an idiot as depicted here. the slight increase was counted towards minor conviction.

i also have bets underwater rn, one of which is $deal (here). i sized roughly 33% smaller because the main product was not out yet (i'm still holding btw) and it could've just been cheap talk. was also banking on the connections the team had. basically there are more 'chance' factors - factors that are uncertain - at play. imo the more 'chance' involved, the lesser i should bet, or at least that is my current stance.

examples of certain factors:
- team has been consistently delivering
- working product w metrics
- great tokenomics

examples of 'chance' factors:
- hoping that influencers will shill it
- hoping that the team will adjust tokenomics

i hope you get my point. essentially, the more uncertain you are, the more you're leaving it to chance. in that case, i would size down first and add on strength.

but yes, investments are all risky and uncontrollable with lots of uncertainty. if you could reduce the level of uncertainty, wouldn't that be great?

the difference between gambling and investing is edge. the more you can decrease uncertainty, the greater edge you have (maybe 1-2%). an extra 1-2% might seem small, but sometimes its all you need.

hope to keep this up w the next few bets as well

more on $deal

sizing aside, i think execution could've been better here

1) buy the rumour, sell the news

price ran up on news of the dex aggregator launching and promptly started dumping on the day itself (i bought on the day of launch). was afraid i would miss the boat, hence entered at 0.5 retracement.

2) the next product (the main product - private otc) was not going to be anytime soon aka no near term catalyst anymore

3) rumours of connections and working together w PAAL, 0x0, ATOR, etc. didn't gain traction! or what i found to be 'chance' factors. well, flipped the coin and missed.

tbc

cont'd

i'm still holding though for a few reasons

1) small size, i can afford to hold as i still have liquidity
2) team communicates well and is actively dev-ing
3) i really do believe a safe and private crosschain otc product would be amazing. just look at the increasing amounts of otc going on for airdrops and whatnot among retail investors.
4) price held and bottomed out at $0.7 - $1 floor, showing signs of accumulation

now that price is forming a cup&handle-ish pattern, i think recovery is possibly otw (bagholder hopium ik)

will continue observing before deciding the next steps

tentative plan:
dump back to $1 and hold -> cut
reclaim and HOLD $2 and above -> hold

JUST IN: $150 million liquidated from the crypto market in the past 45 minutes.

@WatcherGuru

the importance of securing profits ^

anyw, mostly safu from this skem dump since i’m not leveraged after derisking awhile back

spot still safu

might go lower, might go higher from here, no one really knows

but i bidded some coins in the dip for spot bags

*the worst thing you can possibly do in a flush dump is panic sell your spot bags esp in a bull market

bought an Injective Quant

wanted to buy one before i slept @ 7.85 but accidentally bidded instead and got outbid overnight

(bidding locks up your funds and you can’t remove bid if you’re the highest bidder)

had to buy higher at 11 this morning

small thoughts on why:
INJ is a strong performer this cycle and i expect INJ activities (and NFT market) to pick up over time as liquidity flows to seek new opportunities

in 2021, every single NFT market regardless of chain boomed during the bull market (ofc, some boomed more than others, but it’s not a zero sum game)

safest bet here is to buy a top collection, because they will remain so when the market booms

ninjas and quants are the current leaders

quant because pixel art + affordable

won’t be touching this nft for the next few months and i consider it a way of diversifying a small part of my INJ spot bag with some leverage

injective.talis.art

re: INJ NFTs and the Injective Quant i bought

holders of specific NFTs will be eligible for airdrop and this will likely be the top few collections

#airdrop

https://x.com/injmuncher/status/1733845660321853671?s=46&t=nluSw7cwYGx8zFxfoYi5Iw

INJ airdrop opps

#airdrop

https://x.com/mztacat/status/1733914823744975086?s=46&t=nluSw7cwYGx8zFxfoYi5Iw

new week, new refs!

I have 5 more Thunder Terminal refs for this week, fcfs (it ran out quickly previously)

my previous post on Thunder Terminal airdrop here

a potential leader in the terminals narratives, which i shared about here

you'll need a ref to start using:
https://thunder.gg/terminal?referrer=656dc8a1158fd41c03252af4

holding an injective quant also qualifies you for $QUNT airdrop

https://vxtwitter.com/injectivequants/status/1726978778813923370?s=46&t=nluSw7cwYGx8zFxfoYi5Iw

please do exercise risk management when farming airdrops as well

NEVER allocate more than you can afford to lose

https://x.com/Ruygye/status/1733883984642261400?s=20