Crypto Mumbles – Telegram
Crypto Mumbles
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things I mumble to myself about crypto

basically my transparent crypto diary

education, analysis, and trades 🙂

Twitter: https://twitter.com/dpycm
Medium: https://medium.com/@dpycm
Lifemax (non-crypto): t.me/humblespace
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the top collection of Aptos is still reachable, so grabbing one first

i expect a slow upward appreciation in fp, while choosing to disregard short term fluctuations in real value

as with most top collections of ecos, i hope that there will some form of value accrual towards it from ecosystem projects

i had spare liq in Aptos as well, so just decided to park it in the cutest monkey on the floor
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Top 25 Most Successful ETF Launches (Day 1)
regarding inflows post btc etf approval, it's honestly hard to speculate imo, but i think here's what we can generally expect from historical/current examples

Rotation out from:
1) CME futures
2) gbtc, bito, purpose

Into:
1) brand name / trust (reputation)
2) low expense etfs

looking at Gold ETFs and broad ETFs in general,

1) 11,000 etfs out there with only 739 ETFs with more than 2bn AUM. And these large funds capture 82% of total AUM

2) US gold ETFs , only 4 etfs with more than 2bn AUM , and 3 ETFs capture over 75% of the total AUM - SPDR (& micro etf) + iShares

3) Gold ETFs to gold mcap ratio is around 1.6%. S&P500 etfs to S&P500 mcap ratio is around 3.3%. For BTC , we are at 4%+ so perhaps gbtc could be overvalued.

4) Blackrock Insti AUM is around 5trillion+. If we follow the 1% allocation meme, that means 50bn to be allocated over the next 3-5 years pacing. Of course , bull market fomo and credit expansion will accelerate the flows. But on average, definitely looking 10-15bn per year inflow.

The rest will come from rotations amongst the ETFs themselves vs other tradfi crypto exposure (eg. CME, MSTR, Miners, etc.)

if Blackrock pulls in 2-3bn inflows in the first few days, the other asset managers will definitely be very dry. Pareto's principle applies here.

the biggest question is after the lined up capital inflow that everyone is excited about, when where and how is the next new inflow coming in?

if immediate (unlikely), then pump w no brakes
if there is a delay, then a pull back is imminent (delayed 'sell the news')

h/t @gongjiawei
Crypto Mumbles
my thought process on xai > 11% circ > no unlocks for the next 6 months (excluding esXAI vesting to be released soon, but it takes 180days) > backed by offchain labs > arb L3 + gamefi > 4844 catalysts (maybe) no way this trades below $1 in the short term…
its crazy how xai is dumping so hard

will have to cut my trade if not i'll lose all my airdrop stimmies

might relook into it again after it finds a bottom

state of the market is basically merciless bleeding to any token that is not within current narratives

guess liquidity is finally consolidating to bid big narratives (etf) after being fragmented for months chasing
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Crypto Mumbles
bought some $xalpha some AI driven analytical assistant with liq locked for 6 months i faded the previous 2 AI buzzword projects and missed 10x on both just gonna throw some into this one at ~1m mc RISKY Twitter Dexscreener
great strength on $xalpha, not sure who is pushing it but pretty happy my onchain plays are doing well

onchain seems mostly unaffected as compared to cex alts that are bleeding heavily
Crypto Mumbles
same thing for $zorro on zks when they do finally airdrop their token or even announce it, then i expect some runs from the biggest memecoin on zks
zorro slow grinding, likely pushed by sisyphus' tweet here

"buy defi or memecoins on L2s that don't have tokens yet"
Forwarded from Watcher Guru
JUST IN: Cboe approves the following Spot Bitcoin ETFs for listing on its exchange, pending SEC approval:

• VanEck
• Fidelity
• Franklin
• ArkInvest
• Invesco Galaxy

@WatcherGuru