#reads depin

https://www.compound.vc/writing/depin

No specific thoughts, I think focusing on rate cut pa is abit missing forest for the trees bc

1. There will be more rate cuts (catalysts) in Nov and Dec
2. Yes next week’s rate cuts are priced in at this point so probably will see more volatility next week or 2 but to me sellers have exhausted at this point
3. Main sellers of Bitcoin is miners. Their BTC balance tend to dump into halving block and it has already bottomed out like in Aug. In fact miner balancers are trending up slowly
4. “Black swan” events like Yen carry trade, war around the world etc are known at this point and market participants are pricing in with this knowledge in mind, so it’s not really black swan anymore. Black swan means no one can anticipate or predict it in any way or form
5. Money markets supply at ATHs. Meaning there are way more capital waiting to be deployed vs already exposed to market risk, so imo only way is they deploy in the months to come
6. Whole market positioning have been reset after this 6 months chop. Market feels more at equilibrium at 55k-60k zone. (Funding reset, OI down massively since March, alts mostly down 70% and have flattened)

So I consider post rate cut pa to be noise. I mean it really depends what you want, if it’s just a trade then yeah it makes sense, but investing wise Q4 will be the main rally imo

I believe we'll have a clearer picture after next week’s FOMC meeting and the quarterly expiry when gamma rolls off. At that point, I would expect stocks to correct, potentially dragging Bitcoin down with them. As mentioned on Monday, there’s a chance for improved trading this week until the FOMC decision, providing better levels for shorts to enter. I'm inclined to think that risk assets will sell off as we approach the election in November, despite the typical bullish sentiment for Bitcoin during October—something we also noted last year, though it was under different market conditions. I anticipate that Harris will win the election, and at some point, the market should start factoring in potential changes, such as higher corporate taxes.

selloff on the first rate cuts for 2 weeks at least

popcat/wif/pepe
sui/sei
tia/dym/saga
prime/tao

i’m already long tia, hawking sui/sei, spot popcat

time to watch the rest

dym/saga chart is cancerous to trade tho

RESEARCH: NIGHT OWLS, OR ADULTS WHO STAY UP LATE AND HAVE A PREFERENCE FOR EVENING ACTIVITY, GENERALLY PERFORMED BETTER ON COGNITIVE TESTS THAN PEOPLE WHO ARE MORNING-ORIENTED, ACCORDING TO STUDY BY IMPERIAL COLLEGE. ...

tia putting in the work on a weekend

funding on binance still pretty negative

might wanna add ftm to the list, seems like it’s getting a shout on ct

sonic q4?

generally wary about opening new lev positions now with rate cuts happening soon, but longer term it’s just a small blip in the run up

don’t lose yourself before that

Each time I see an altcoin pump, I want to short it (and I often do it).

I am probably not the only one, and this signals something in market sentiment, because it was not the case a few months ago, when it was way less risky to do so.

That being said, most of my portfolio has been deployed in spot for months and still is.

sui ripping as well today

my bids weren't tapped, but i have scallop running as well as some other smaller caps on sui

good to pay some attention to sui

tia bros

nice thesis here

https://x.com/cburniske/status/1835113974561751489?s=46&t=nluSw7cwYGx8zFxfoYi5Iw

This is the first presidential election where Millennials + Gen Z outnumber Baby Boomers