📈 Which DEX token should you add to your portfolio?

Friends, in recent months, decentralized exchanges (DEXs) have become one of the hottest topics. Among them, Hyperliquid stands out with impressive fee volumes, and Aster caught attention after its token surged following a mention by Binance founder.

The key question: which DEXs are truly worth investing in, not just hyped? Our team decided to take a closer look.

🔤 We compared three projects — Aster, Hyperliquid, and Avantis — across key metrics: trading volume, open interest, fees, and TVL.

For reference, we used Binance and Coinbase. Looking at fair market valuation via the P/S ratio (price-to-sales), Binance, with $17 billion in revenue, would theoretically be worth $120–140 billion, while Coinbase is at $50 billion with $5.9 billion in revenue.

In terms of trading volume, Aster (~$83B) and Avantis (~$95B) surpass Hyperliquid (~$72B). But their open interest is abnormally low: Aster — ~$2.8B, Avantis — ~$0.18B, Hyperliquid — ~$92B. This greatly distorts the picture.

The main reason is airdrops: traders actively “farm” tokens, artificially inflating volume.

📥 Looking at fees and multipliers (market cap/fees), Aster and Avantis are comparable to Hyperliquid. However, relative to their fully diluted valuation (FDV), their figures are twice as high as Hyperliquid and nearly ten times higher than Binance.

This is due to low token circulation and upcoming capital dilution.

— TVL at Avantis is minimal, yet its capital efficiency appears six times higher, which could indicate either exceptional efficiency or artificial trading activity.

Real revenues are far below reported numbers: around $14M for Aster, and effectively near zero for Avantis.

🔎 Conclusions:

• Aster — Technologically promising with Binance support, but entry is currently too speculative. The optimal approach is to wait for the airdrop to finish (October 4) and for a market correction.

• Avantis — Metrics are highly inflated, fundamentals are weak, and growth may only be short-term, driven by trader migration after the Aster airdrop.

❕ For now, our company’s portfolio holds only the HYPE token in a small amount. We are not buying other projects’ tokens yet — we prefer to wait for a correction and more balanced project metrics 🔥

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📉 M2 Index Turns Downward: A Warning Signal for Markets

From a global liquidity perspective, the M2 index signals the approach of a headwind period for financial markets, starting in November.

🔤 The global M2 liquidity index is an aggregated and optimized metric that reflects the growth rate of the money supply.

In the past, it has led Bitcoin (BTC) by roughly 110 days, and it is now showing a downward turn beginning this November.

— This indicator has high predictive value: the correlation coefficient with BTC is around 0.9 over time horizons ranging from one month to three years.

This suggests that the current downward turn of the index may signal a tightening of liquidity conditions toward the end of the year, which in turn could put pressure on risk assets (see chart).

❕ However, the short-term outlook remains moderately positive: the index still points to favorable liquidity conditions in October, which could support demand for risk assets in the coming weeks.

Should I make more posts with an overview and explanation of the indicators that I use myself?

🔥 — Yes
🐳 — No

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💸 How to Properly Read Altseason Index Signals

The cryptocurrency market is cyclical: periods of Bitcoin dominance alternate with the so-called «altseason» and vice versa. However, catching this transition in real time is extremely difficult.

To address this challenge, the Altcoin Season Index was created. Yet, most investors interpret it too literally, which often leads to misleading conclusions

🔤 Interpretation of the Index

The Altcoin Season Index measures what percentage of the top 100 coins by market cap have outperformed Bitcoin in terms of returns over the past 90 days.

Its basic framework is:
• <25 – Bitcoin season (capital rotates into BTC while alts stagnate or decline).
• 25–75 – transition zone (some alts are rallying, but BTC dominance remains strong).
• >75 – altseason (broad-based outperformance of altcoins versus Bitcoin).

However, it’s important to note: this index reflects capital rotation that has already occurred — it does not predict the future.

📥 Therefore, interpretation should be as follows:

• >70 — alts are already at peak attention; time to consider taking profits.
• <25 — capital is flowing strongly into BTC as a «safe haven»; also a good time to look for profit-taking opportunities.

Historically, this indicator has proven to be highly accurate. For example, in April–early May 2021 the index stayed in the 80–90 range.

During that period, Ethereum surged from $700 to $4,000. But by late May, the market entered a significant correction.

📈 Backtests conducted by our analytics team suggest that the optimal exit strategy for alt positions is gradual profit-taking in equal portions over 2–3 weeks once the index crosses above 50.

As for the current market context: the index is at relatively elevated levels, making fresh entries into alts less attractive. Preserving capital in Bitcoin or stablecoins is the more prudent approach.

Looking forward, it’s crucial to remember my key thesis: this cycle will not see broad-based growth across all assets.

❕ My stance is clear: the best performance will come from projects with established business models and sustainable operating profits 🔥

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📈 This is a trait of all successful traders

Friends, here’s an important insight: understanding where liquidity moves in the crypto market will determine your success in trading.

💸 Your job as a trader and investor is to identify liquidity zones that influence price.

These are typically areas where stop-loss orders are clustered.

These zones matter because when price hits SLs, buy or sell orders are triggered automatically, creating sharp price impulses.

🔤 Before trading, make sure to:
1. Identify key support and resistance levels.
2. Spot clusters of stop-loss orders.
3. Analyze the market context: news flow and risk appetite.
4. Plan your entry and exit points, taking trade risk into account.

I’ve attached an example chart breakdown above.

❕ Important: if you see prices approaching your entry point too quickly, it’s better to skip the trade and wait for a better opportunity 🔥

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💰 Macro → Bitcoin: a 60‑Second Map

All financial markets are closely interconnected — that’s a fact. Those who know how to interpret these connections correctly earn significantly more.

🔤 The stock market and macroeconomic events are among the main triggers for liquidity flows in BTC and its price movements:

• Inflation surprises (CPI / PPI)
• Central bank policies
• Dollar dynamics (DXY index)
• Employment and unemployment data
• M2 money supply

All of these have a powerful impact.

🔖 Recall some examples:

• March 2023: The Fed raised rates by 0.25 pp despite expectations of a pause — BTC dropped by ≈6.5%.
• March 2025: CPI came in at 3.0% vs. expectations of 2.8% — BTC dropped by ≈4.2%.

❕ In our team, we have a dedicated department that monitors these events and executes trades based on them.

Do you want me to cover such events with analytics? If yes, hit 🔥

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💸 New smart wallet for memecoins has been found

Today, my team dove back into tracking smart wallets that generate significant profits on memecoins — and we discovered an interesting trader.

His actions resemble insider trading.

🔤 6 days ago, the PRYS token was launched — another project that is essentially worthless, but its price manipulations create opportunities to earn.

Who cares: link to the token (not an advertisement or a financial recommendation)

— Within just a few hours of trading, the token was pumped by over 45,000%, and amid all this hype, we identified a smart trader: «RFSqPtn» (marked with an arrow on the chart).

He bought the token for around $2,000 just a minute after the launch and started taking profits at the very peaks.

This doesn’t look like luck.

❕ We are now actively monitoring his moves, and if we find valuable insights, we’ll share them with you too 🔥

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💰 Million for BTC — Myth or Mathematical Logic?

Rumors about Bitcoin reaching $500K or even $1M are circulating in the crypto world. Let’s break down whether such price levels are possible from the perspective of numbers, the money market, and capital allocation logic.

🔤 To estimate Bitcoin’s potential price, it’s important to understand how much of the global capital it could realistically capture.

According to the data for 2025, the volumes look like this:

• Global M2 (broad money supply): $127.3T
• Corporate treasuries: $39.9T
• Central bank reserves: $15.5T
• Gold: $23.9T

Total: ~$206.7T of potential «monetary market».

💸 What Happens if BTC Captures Even a Small Share?

Suppose investors, corporations, and countries start allocating a portion of their assets to BTC. Not all of it — just 1–10%. With the current supply (~19.7M BTC), the math is simple:

• 1% market capture = ~$104,573 per BTC
• 5% = ~$522,865
• 10% = ~$1,045,730

This isn’t just Reddit fantasy — it aligns with CoinShares’ modeling using the Verhulst S-curve, a standard approach for tech adoption (internet, smartphones, social networks).

This is a gradual capital shift over 10–15 years, similar to how the internet, mobile communication, and social networks grew — through ETFs, pension funds, corporate balance sheets, and retail investors in countries with weakening currencies.

❕ Mathematically, Bitcoin can reach $500K or even $1M if it captures 5–10% of the global monetary market 🔥

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🥇 Investors are bracing for a potential market crash.

We’re seeing record inflows into gold ETFs: the total assets of U.S. funds backed by physical gold have surged to $225 billion — that’s 4.5x higher than before the pandemic ($50 billion).

🔤 In September alone, inflows reached $33 billion.

Why gold? It’s independent of any government’s political or economic decisions, making it a safe haven amid global uncertainty.

During crises, gold traditionally appreciates in value — reaffirming its role as a «quiet harbor» for capital.

What about crypto? Right now, we’re seeing a local correction across nearly all assets. ETH has already hit the $4,000 level.

❕ I’d expect a further dip to around $3,800, where I’d start looking for long opportunities 🔥

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🚨The market is experiencing a sharp decline.

ETH - $3,600
BTC - $110,000
TON - reached $0.55!!!

Almost all altcoins we know of have dropped in price by 60-90% in a matter of minutes.

❕ If you have the opportunity, buy.

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📉 When asked what’s happening with the markets right now, the short answer is this: we’re back in the era of trade fronts.

Donald Trump has announced 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and intends to restrict exports of critical software.

The trigger was Beijing’s response — a reduction in rare-earth metal exports, which are essential for producing electronics, electric motors, and weapons.

💸 This story isn’t new — back in April, markets had already reacted to similar statements. The only difference is that back then, the economy was still moving on growth momentum.

Today, it’s being kept afloat mainly thanks to the Fed’s policies — easing liquidity requirements and cutting rates. In other words, the market isn’t growing on its own — it’s being propped up to keep it from sinking deeper.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that institutional players can no longer push prices higher as aggressively: access to capital is limited, and retail investors aren’t rushing back in.

That means every new wave of anxiety becomes a stress test for the market’s resilience.

❕ Still, there’s no need to panic — Trump always backs off when the markets start shaking!

📈 Ethereum performed exceptionally well in breaking through the 3,850 level. We received a very strong impulse.

Therefore, we advise you to always look for levels that are performing strongly locally after sharp corrections.

When the market reverses upward, they usually provide good entry points.

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📉 Probability of a Crisis in the U.S. by the End of 2025

After the start of the shutdown caused by disagreements between Democrats and Republicans, the number of discussions about an imminent economic crisis in the U.S. is growing — and there are indeed reasons for that.

But what are the truly significant factors that could have a negative impact on the country’s economy?

🔤 Weakening Labor Market

First of all, it is worth mentioning the labor market — as of the end of September, employment in the private sector decreased by more than 30,000 jobs, which became the second consecutive negative result.

At the same time, there has been a decline in the number of job openings (-6.1% since the beginning of the year) and a tendency for companies to increasingly resort to staff optimization.

It is especially alarming that the market may be entering a phase where weak employment reduces consumer demand, which negatively affects businesses and provokes a new wave of layoffs.

This, in turn, affects the overall level of economic activity and may trigger a classic recessionary spiral.

❕ Secondly, there is another no less important factor...

Drop 🔥 and I’ll share the second part quickly.

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↗️ Probability of a Crisis in the U.S. | Part 2

Continuing...

📊 Problems in the Structure of the Debt Market

The situation in the automotive sector also plays a significant role in the current environment, where almost simultaneously, Tricolor Holdings and First Brands Group — major players closely tied to the non-bank financial institutions (NDFI) system — have gone bankrupt.

Why is this dangerous for the economy? A company like Tricolor, for instance, issues auto loans to thousands of clients, which become assets backed by their future payments.

These loans are then bundled into a single pool and turned into bonds, which are subsequently sold to banks and investment funds.

However, the bonds that were previously considered high-rated have now plummeted in value. Large banks, including JP Morgan, are preparing to record hundreds of millions in losses. If similar cases continue, the entire securitization system could be at risk.

📥 It is also important to note the situation in the AI sector, where companies are currently undergoing a serious revaluation — attracting massive amounts of capital, yet their revenues do not justify the inflated multiples.

It is the hype around AI that has supported much of the stock market over the past year — for instance, NVIDIA alone accounts for 7–8% of the entire S&P 500,

And if we consider the 10 largest tech giants connected to this sector, they already make up around 40% of the index.

If any local shock occurs within the AI sector, it could drag down the entire market.

There are indeed signs of potential deterioration, but for a full-scale crisis to unfold, several negative events would need to occur simultaneously or within a short period of time.

❕ The emergence of just one of these factors could trigger a market correction, but it is unlikely to cause a deep recession 🔥

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💵 Who makes the most money in the financial markets?

…It is almost impossible to answer this question precisely, but companies engaged in HFT are definitely in the top 3.

By the way, my team and I also use this type of trading in one of our strategies.

🔤 What is HFT — why millions of operations per second?

High-Frequency Trading (HFT) is ultra-fast algorithmic trading, where companies make thousands of trades per day, extracting profit from minimal price fluctuations.

The most interesting thing is how they achieve such speed:

1️⃣ Colocation:
HFT companies rent servers directly in exchange data centers (for example, NYSE or CME). The closer the server is to the exchange — the faster the signal reaches it.

2️⃣ Fiber optics and microwaves:
To transfer data between exchanges, companies use private fiber-optic lines and even microwave radio signals to save fractions of a millisecond.

In 2010, Spread Networks built a cable between Chicago and New York worth $300 million to reduce latency by 3 milliseconds.

💸 To understand the scale of HFT companies:

Citadel Securities (USA)
• Total revenue for 2024: $9.7 billion
• Net profit: $4.2 billion — twice as high as in 2023
• Net trading capital: $16 billion at the end of 2024

Jane Street (USA)
• Revenue for 2024: $20.5 billion
• Share in the U.S. market: ~10.4% of all stock trades

❕ I know that among my audience there are very wealthy people who now want to build a business in the financial markets — I would recommend paying attention to HFT. My team and I are now finishing a project in this area 🔥

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