IFS survey clearly shows conservatives aged 25-35 are FAR more likely to be parents than liberal peers. It also shows an increase in liberalism amongst women in that young age range. But only ~36% not majority. So even if liberal TFR falls to 1.0 hardly demographic armageddon.
It seems that you get the most juice for your pro natalist squeeze convincing those with 2+ kids to have another than you get convincing a couple with none to have one. If the U.S. adopts more robust pro natal strategies perhaps that should be taken into account.
BUT given the recent (a joke here as it’s past 25 years) government spending largesse eventually there will be market pushback to mass spending & any pro natalist initiatives put forward by an outgoing administration will likely be the first to go in a new one dedicated to cuts.
Also who knows how much pro natalist spending actually helps (based on my observations not a whole lot). The problem is cultural & any solution will be as well.
It seems that you get the most juice for your pro natalist squeeze convincing those with 2+ kids to have another than you get convincing a couple with none to have one. If the U.S. adopts more robust pro natal strategies perhaps that should be taken into account.
BUT given the recent (a joke here as it’s past 25 years) government spending largesse eventually there will be market pushback to mass spending & any pro natalist initiatives put forward by an outgoing administration will likely be the first to go in a new one dedicated to cuts.
Also who knows how much pro natalist spending actually helps (based on my observations not a whole lot). The problem is cultural & any solution will be as well.
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The Silent Generation (born from 1928-1945) is in the process of disintegration. Almost extinct by 2035. That generation in the United States will fall from ~11,800,000 today to ~200,000 by 2035. Interestingly the Silent Generation was last gigantic one in Russia due to the impact of the Second World War on post 1945 generations.
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In Israel since 1996 Muslim, Christian, & Druze births as % of total plummeted while Jewish births skyrocketed from 69%(& 83,700 births)to 74%+(& 134,400 births). This increase was driven by the ultra orthodox & religious. These very religious elements largely absent elsewhere.
If Amish & Mennonite communities made up 7% of any western country in 1996 & 14.5% today, that country would see a similar TFR turnaround. The issue is this was not the case in a single western country. That is why western countries cannot emulate the Israeli demographic model.
If Amish & Mennonite communities made up 7% of any western country in 1996 & 14.5% today, that country would see a similar TFR turnaround. The issue is this was not the case in a single western country. That is why western countries cannot emulate the Israeli demographic model.
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Germany, the economic engine of the EU., will see its TFR drop to 1.32 this year. But this simply compounds existing pain. The cohort about to enter the labor force in numbers is from the smallest in German history by a lot (born from 2005-2013 when births never exceeded 700K).
The 2030s are shaping up to be the toughest in the postwar period. The economy is likely to continue its current slowing, inter European immigration will be barely a trickle, & the massive baby boomer & oldest Gen X cohorts will be retiring in gigantic numbers.
https://x.com/ar_demografie/status/1999631360215122427
The 2030s are shaping up to be the toughest in the postwar period. The economy is likely to continue its current slowing, inter European immigration will be barely a trickle, & the massive baby boomer & oldest Gen X cohorts will be retiring in gigantic numbers.
https://x.com/ar_demografie/status/1999631360215122427
X (formerly Twitter)
Mærstemgau-Rübe (@AR_Demografie) on X
Germany births updated through September:
September 2025 (preliminary): 57,879 (+0.6%)
September 2024 (preliminary): 57,528
Jan.-Sep. 2025 (prelim.): 493,252 (-3.2%)
Jan.-Sep. 2024 (prelim.): 509,431
Final number for Jan.-Sep. 2024 was 515,724.
Tfr to…
September 2025 (preliminary): 57,879 (+0.6%)
September 2024 (preliminary): 57,528
Jan.-Sep. 2025 (prelim.): 493,252 (-3.2%)
Jan.-Sep. 2024 (prelim.): 509,431
Final number for Jan.-Sep. 2024 was 515,724.
Tfr to…
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Interesting look at immigrant makeup by generation for FVEY countries. Starting with the US one can see that millennials are by far the most immigrant heavy generation followed by Gen X. This differs from Canada where all postwar generations bar Z are more than 1/5th immigrant.
Australia is even more heavily immigrant than Canada Gen X onwards. More than a third of Australian Millennials & a fifth of Australian Zoomers are immigrants. The source countries also changed dramatically from 1950s-1960s to today. From the European to the Asian continent.
Surprisingly the UK (at least according to their national statistics) has less immigrants as a portion of each generation than the U.S., Canada, or Australia. Not a single generation is more than a fifth immigrant in composition. This is interesting as immigration is arguably most center stage politically there.
Australia is even more heavily immigrant than Canada Gen X onwards. More than a third of Australian Millennials & a fifth of Australian Zoomers are immigrants. The source countries also changed dramatically from 1950s-1960s to today. From the European to the Asian continent.
Surprisingly the UK (at least according to their national statistics) has less immigrants as a portion of each generation than the U.S., Canada, or Australia. Not a single generation is more than a fifth immigrant in composition. This is interesting as immigration is arguably most center stage politically there.
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Iran’s interior minister is sounding the alarm on the country’s increasingly disastrous demographics. He stated that Iran’s population will fall below 40 million by 2101 if current trends continue calling it “a major catastrophe” for the Islamic Republic.
https://www.trend.az/iran/society/4135527.html
https://www.trend.az/iran/society/4135527.html
Trend
Iran's population could decline dramatically - Interior Minister
BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 27. Iran’s population could fall to fewer than 40 million by 2101 if current demographic trends continue, Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni said on December 27 at an event held in Tehran, Trend reports.
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Kenya likely to be 2nd large 50M+Sub Saharan African country (after South Africa) to fall below replacement. Currently at ~3.0, Kenya’s fertility rate has fallen every year since 1967. If TFR falls to 2.75 by 2030 then there is pretty decent chance it will hit replacement ~2035.
The country is urbanizing & getting onto social media rapidly. The fertility rate of Nairobi is already ~2.5 according to several surveys. As more move there & get connected with global culture TFR will plummet. Same deal in other large Kenyan cities.
Rural fertility has already fallen considerably but for this forecast to be accurate Nairobi would be below 2.0 by 2030 & 1.5 by 2035 & 50% of the population would be urban in 2030 and 55% by 2035 (in line with estimates).
The country is urbanizing & getting onto social media rapidly. The fertility rate of Nairobi is already ~2.5 according to several surveys. As more move there & get connected with global culture TFR will plummet. Same deal in other large Kenyan cities.
Rural fertility has already fallen considerably but for this forecast to be accurate Nairobi would be below 2.0 by 2030 & 1.5 by 2035 & 50% of the population would be urban in 2030 and 55% by 2035 (in line with estimates).
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Demographics Now and Then
Kenya likely to be 2nd large 50M+Sub Saharan African country (after South Africa) to fall below replacement. Currently at ~3.0, Kenya’s fertility rate has fallen every year since 1967. If TFR falls to 2.75 by 2030 then there is pretty decent chance it will…
The other possible large African contender for sub replacement Sub Saharan African TFR by 2035 is Ethiopia (Addis Ababa already below replacement but national TFR is still ~3.8). I’m guessing it will still be ~2.4-2.5 by 2035 but remember replacement TFR in both is above 2.10.
This year I will be doing a lot more on Sub Saharan African population projections. Think their demographic future far smaller than most predictions. DR Congo in particular will stay far far below European population densities as will most SSA countries.
This year I will be doing a lot more on Sub Saharan African population projections. Think their demographic future far smaller than most predictions. DR Congo in particular will stay far far below European population densities as will most SSA countries.
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Country I’ll be paying most attention to in 2026 will be Hungary. There is a chance the tax changes will lead to a significant bump for a year or two. TFR will bounce back above this year’s ~1.3, that is almost certain. Hungary the country to watch.
In general I’m not a fan of financial pro natalism as it does not seem to cause sustained changes in the fertility rate but nevertheless am always willing to give things a second look in the face of convincing new data.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-orban-launches-tax-exemption-mothers-cap-housing-loan-rates-2025-02-22/
In general I’m not a fan of financial pro natalism as it does not seem to cause sustained changes in the fertility rate but nevertheless am always willing to give things a second look in the face of convincing new data.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-orban-launches-tax-exemption-mothers-cap-housing-loan-rates-2025-02-22/
Reuters
Hungary's Orban launches tax exemption for mothers, cap on housing loan rates
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced an income tax exemption for mothers of two or three children and said he would cap interest rates on housing loans at 5% from April as part of moves to shore up the economy ahead of a 2026 national election.
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In 2025 Vietnam ended the two child policy. Now families everywhere in the country face no restrictions on births & in some areas (like Saigon) authorities pay out baby bonuses. TFR is ~1.9. Better late than never but should never have had birth restrictions in the first place.
Still, Vietnam did well in avoiding Thailand (or even Latam) level demographic collapse. Next decade will be decisive. If they can keep TFR above 1.5 they will be golden.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/04/world/asia/vietnam-two-child-policy.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
Still, Vietnam did well in avoiding Thailand (or even Latam) level demographic collapse. Next decade will be decisive. If they can keep TFR above 1.5 they will be golden.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/04/world/asia/vietnam-two-child-policy.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
NY Times
Facing a Demographic Shift, Vietnam Abolishes Two-Child Policy
Even though the regulation was loosely enforced, the nation’s birthrate fell to a record low last year.
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🇹🇭👶 While Thailand saw minor improvement in their annual demographic situation in December,they still ended the year down almost 10% in terms of births. Their fertility rate also sank below 0.90. Labor from Cambodia has also largely ceased with hundreds of thousands returning home due to the border war.
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Kenya likely to be 2nd large 50M+Sub Saharan African country (after South Africa) to fall below replacement. Currently at ~3.0, Kenya’s fertility rate has fallen every year since 1967. If TFR falls to 2.75 by 2030 then there is pretty decent chance it will hit replacement ~2035.
The country is urbanizing & getting onto social media rapidly. The fertility rate of Nairobi is already ~2.5 according to several surveys. As more move there & get connected with global culture TFR will plummet. Same deal in other large Kenyan cities.
Rural fertility has already fallen considerably but for this forecast to be accurate Nairobi would be below 2.0 by 2030 & 1.5 by 2035 & 50% of the population would be urban in 2030 and 55% by 2035 (in line with estimates).
The country is urbanizing & getting onto social media rapidly. The fertility rate of Nairobi is already ~2.5 according to several surveys. As more move there & get connected with global culture TFR will plummet. Same deal in other large Kenyan cities.
Rural fertility has already fallen considerably but for this forecast to be accurate Nairobi would be below 2.0 by 2030 & 1.5 by 2035 & 50% of the population would be urban in 2030 and 55% by 2035 (in line with estimates).
❤16🎉8😎3😱1
Demographics Now and Then
Kenya likely to be 2nd large 50M+Sub Saharan African country (after South Africa) to fall below replacement. Currently at ~3.0, Kenya’s fertility rate has fallen every year since 1967. If TFR falls to 2.75 by 2030 then there is pretty decent chance it will…
The other possible large African contender for sub replacement Sub Saharan African TFR by 2035 is Ethiopia (Addis Ababa already below replacement but national TFR is still ~3.8). I’m guessing it will still be ~2.4-2.5 by 2035 but remember replacement TFR in both is above 2.10.
This year I will be doing a lot more on Sub Saharan African population projections. Think their demographic future far smaller than most predictions. DR Congo in particular will stay far far below European population densities as will most SSA countries.
This year I will be doing a lot more on Sub Saharan African population projections. Think their demographic future far smaller than most predictions. DR Congo in particular will stay far far below European population densities as will most SSA countries.
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The biggest factor to consider in Sub Saharan African population projections is that they cannot take famines, wars, & the resulting demographic fallout, into account. I’m fairly certain a lot of these factors will be at play in the highest TFR Sahel countries of Niger & Mali.
Mali has around 24 million people & Niger ~25 million. They both face disastrous insurgencies & food+water insecurity. Unrealistic projections (on upside) have them at ~60M & 67.5M respectively by 2065. This won’t happen. Much lower when factoring in likely events.
Mali has around 24 million people & Niger ~25 million. They both face disastrous insurgencies & food+water insecurity. Unrealistic projections (on upside) have them at ~60M & 67.5M respectively by 2065. This won’t happen. Much lower when factoring in likely events.
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