Well depends.
What’s for sure is that those getting rich on the next big things are nearly always equal parts of:
(1) retards who are lucky to have not wrecked themselves, and
(2) big brains who made a high-value well-informed, not not pure luck-based bet
- with the midwits being totally absent, almost by definition, as the midwit masses betting on something tends to eliminate all upside potential,
Now was a particular bet luck?
Well, unless it was something with strong lack-of-edge guarantees, like a proper unrigged lottery, it can be nearly impossible to tell just by looking at the thing itself
Instead at least got to know what the person’s strategy was. Looking at betting strategies, not particular bets.
Can’t see their betting strategy — then usually can’t judge whether it was just luck or not.
As the classic Oaktree Capital Management memo pointed out
— A single resolution of a single event (e.g. win or loss) tells you NOTHING about whether the event was a lucky / high value bet.
Can’t tell odds just by looking a single outcome.
Can’t tell odds even by looking at many outcomes, alone.
Gotta know what their strategy was, among other things.
Beyond that though, “luck” is not even the right units with which to be measuring the goodness of bets.
…”Value” is the right unit.
More specifically, discounted-value, or even better, discounted-q-value.
$ not %.
And likewise, can’t tell if a bet was high-value or low-value just by looking at the outcome. Must look deeper.
But at the end, most saying that all big success is luck don’t care about any of that.
Because the reason they say that every big success is pure luck, regarless of circumstances, is for one reason.
Communist brain.
What’s for sure is that those getting rich on the next big things are nearly always equal parts of:
(1) retards who are lucky to have not wrecked themselves, and
(2) big brains who made a high-value well-informed, not not pure luck-based bet
- with the midwits being totally absent, almost by definition, as the midwit masses betting on something tends to eliminate all upside potential,
Now was a particular bet luck?
Well, unless it was something with strong lack-of-edge guarantees, like a proper unrigged lottery, it can be nearly impossible to tell just by looking at the thing itself
Instead at least got to know what the person’s strategy was. Looking at betting strategies, not particular bets.
Can’t see their betting strategy — then usually can’t judge whether it was just luck or not.
As the classic Oaktree Capital Management memo pointed out
— A single resolution of a single event (e.g. win or loss) tells you NOTHING about whether the event was a lucky / high value bet.
Can’t tell odds just by looking a single outcome.
Can’t tell odds even by looking at many outcomes, alone.
Gotta know what their strategy was, among other things.
Beyond that though, “luck” is not even the right units with which to be measuring the goodness of bets.
…”Value” is the right unit.
More specifically, discounted-value, or even better, discounted-q-value.
$ not %.
And likewise, can’t tell if a bet was high-value or low-value just by looking at the outcome. Must look deeper.
But at the end, most saying that all big success is luck don’t care about any of that.
Because the reason they say that every big success is pure luck, regarless of circumstances, is for one reason.
Communist brain.