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Bitcoin's last three cycle peaks all happened in November or December, each spaced four years apart.
Previous cycle highs:
29 Nov 2013: $1,242
17 Dec 2017: $19,891
10 Nov 2021: $69,000
Nov-Dec 2025: ?
If this pattern continues, then we expect this cycle to peak in November-December of 2025.
Each cycle, for 15 years, Bitcoin has exploded above the power law curve support trendline, and then returned to it during the cycle bear.
Last cycle, in Spring 2021, the bull market started early, but we ended up with a double top that put us back on the 4-year timing.
We have never been as early as we are right now.
This time could be different. We have the ETFs, a favorable political environment, and Saylor (MSTR) borrowing every loose dollar on the bond market to buy more bitcoin.
But, this time doesn't have to be different. We could pause or correct for months while still aligning with previous cycles.
Be careful with being too early in your calls this cycle.
You could be right about your MSTR or IBIT price target and still lose all your money by misjudging the timing.
^^ All well-supported, solid.
+ Peak not until November-December of 2025, i.e. 12-13 months from now.
+ But beware getting too far ahead of the curve — in a way that can get you wrecked by the depth of the many inevitable pullbacks along the way, e.g. by perps or launching something at local top — both quite sensitive to depth of drawdown rather than duration of drawdown.
These upcoming pullbacks will be very short-lived, but very deep.
Beware.
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
Previous cycle highs:
29 Nov 2013: $1,242
17 Dec 2017: $19,891
10 Nov 2021: $69,000
Nov-Dec 2025: ?
If this pattern continues, then we expect this cycle to peak in November-December of 2025.
Each cycle, for 15 years, Bitcoin has exploded above the power law curve support trendline, and then returned to it during the cycle bear.
Last cycle, in Spring 2021, the bull market started early, but we ended up with a double top that put us back on the 4-year timing.
We have never been as early as we are right now.
This time could be different. We have the ETFs, a favorable political environment, and Saylor (MSTR) borrowing every loose dollar on the bond market to buy more bitcoin.
But, this time doesn't have to be different. We could pause or correct for months while still aligning with previous cycles.
Be careful with being too early in your calls this cycle.
You could be right about your MSTR or IBIT price target and still lose all your money by misjudging the timing.
^^ All well-supported, solid.
+ Peak not until November-December of 2025, i.e. 12-13 months from now.
+ But beware getting too far ahead of the curve — in a way that can get you wrecked by the depth of the many inevitable pullbacks along the way, e.g. by perps or launching something at local top — both quite sensitive to depth of drawdown rather than duration of drawdown.
These upcoming pullbacks will be very short-lived, but very deep.
Beware.
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
💯7👀5🏆2