$ETH

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GM

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$93K $SOL

$232 $BTC

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Bitcoin's last three cycle peaks all happened in November or December, each spaced four years apart.

Previous cycle highs:

29 Nov 2013: $1,242
17 Dec 2017: $19,891
10 Nov 2021: $69,000
Nov-Dec 2025: ?

If this pattern continues, then we expect this cycle to peak in November-December of 2025.

Each cycle, for 15 years, Bitcoin has exploded above the power law curve support trendline, and then returned to it during the cycle bear.

Last cycle, in Spring 2021, the bull market started early, but we ended up with a double top that put us back on the 4-year timing.

We have never been as early as we are right now.

This time could be different. We have the ETFs, a favorable political environment, and Saylor (MSTR) borrowing every loose dollar on the bond market to buy more bitcoin.

But, this time doesn't have to be different. We could pause or correct for months while still aligning with previous cycles.

Be careful with being too early in your calls this cycle.

You could be right about your MSTR or IBIT price target and still lose all your money by misjudging the timing.

^^ All well-supported, solid.

+ Peak not until November-December of 2025, i.e. 12-13 months from now.

+ But beware getting too far ahead of the curve — in a way that can get you wrecked by the depth of the many inevitable pullbacks along the way, e.g. by perps or launching something at local top — both quite sensitive to depth of drawdown rather than duration of drawdown.

These upcoming pullbacks will be very short-lived, but very deep.

Beware.

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Good riddance

Profitability of the livestream coins was truly horrible

Missing entire point

Memecoins are about the audience, not some creator or meme

Memecoins are about some symbol being used as a rallying point for some early adopter audience, capturing some of the value of bringing those likeminded people together, as well as financing whatever their will may be

Not using an audience to promote some creator or meme, though in some cases that may be an incidental effect

MANY of the very top memecoins had no real meme at all

Yes these groups had some logo, some flag but not really any “meme”

Memecoins aren’t about some creator, aren’t about the meme

Saying memecoins are about the meme or their face is as retarded as saying that countries are about their flag

As retarded as saying that successful companies are about their logo

Memecoins are not really about the memes

Memecoins are rallying points, about the audience, about bringing some valuable kind of audience together

Good riddance to pumpfun livestreaming

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So are all huge successes 100% grass-roots organic phenomena?

Or 100% creator-driven?

Wave theory —

As has been pointed out for decades in startups,

Looking back, you’ll see that all the hugest startup or memecoin successes — have always involved recognizing early and riding some huge EXTERNAL wave,

Never purely INTERNALLY willed into existence by the founders or creators, riding some EXTERNAL wave

Riding the wave, NOT creating the wave

Of course, the creator or founder still must be skilled at riding the wave

— Best wave ever is useless if you can’t surf

But at the same time, even the best surfer ever can’t break any records when there’s simply no wave

Always be on the lookout for the next incoming huge wave, and if you start paddling with no wave in sight, be aware that your survival depends on a wave suddenly appearing, and that sheer will alone will not make a wave appear

Wave theory

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Top for livestream coins

Bottom for everything else

Livestream coins were never going to be a big thing

Check the peak caps on these

Culturally, the livestream coin wave happened

Financially, the livestream coin wave never happened, and never will

Zero big hits, by crypto standards

Zero

Tons of trends in crypto have had at least ONE big hit

Livestream coins had ZERO

Purely a product of out-of-touch retards at pumpfun

Onlyfans IS about the creators

Memecoins are NOT, and never will be about the creators, not without turning them into something entirely different, outright securities

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“Only thing price cares about is people buying and holding and not selling”

— Or jeeting asap at <= 0% profit, swapping their place for those willing to go down with the ship

Drawdowns are a reality of markets life, need

Sometimes because they believe in the cause more than they fear the losses

$BOME - many openly tweeted during the presale that they were fine to lose the money they put in, because they supported the cause, of supporting whatever experiment the creator of the most dank pepe remakes wanted to do

$PNUT - many of the earliest buyers believed in the cause of rallying people to send a message to the state, more than they feared losing whatever they put in

$BTC - many of the earliest put in their time and money with little-to-no expectation of financial returns, because they supported the cause

Whatever the reason to hold, price only cares about people buying and holding and not selling

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