DoomPosting
But then why aren’t the masculine countries exactly dominating, especially entrepreneurially? Reason is a second critical dimension = Uncertainty Avoidance, boldness Latin America, East and Central European countries, as well as Japan = High on uncertainty…
Balls, boldness, not schooling
It’s in the nature, in the genes no amount of nurture will change it
Replacing the population with a balless population that never innovates for fear of failure, will change it, though
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It’s in the nature, in the genes no amount of nurture will change it
Replacing the population with a balless population that never innovates for fear of failure, will change it, though
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DoomPosting
Balls, boldness, not schooling It’s in the nature, in the genes no amount of nurture will change it Replacing the population with a balless population that never innovates for fear of failure, will change it, though 🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
Part of why India fails so badly in innovation
“If a legitimate business fails odds are that the founder that took a bank loan will be accused of something else entirely and a bankruptcy will be turned into a criminal proceeding”
Failure cultures leading to a self-fulfilling prophesy of failure results
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“If a legitimate business fails odds are that the founder that took a bank loan will be accused of something else entirely and a bankruptcy will be turned into a criminal proceeding”
Failure cultures leading to a self-fulfilling prophesy of failure results
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The result of eliminating this LEGAL ALIEN WORKER program and ensuring Americans get these jobs, would do more to boost the American job market and middle class living standards than eliminating every illegal alien in the country.
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DoomPosting
Part of why India fails so badly in innovation “If a legitimate business fails odds are that the founder that took a bank loan will be accused of something else entirely and a bankruptcy will be turned into a criminal proceeding” Failure cultures leading…
The American system has been based on trial and error. Which is why foreigners succeed here not at home.
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Americans are not into equation drills and the constructions middlebrows call "high culture"-like knowledge of Goethe's inspirational.
Well, it so happens that America is currently far, far more creative than these nations of museumgoers and equation solvers. It is also far more tolerant of bottom-up tinkering and undirected trial and error.
United States specializes in the creative aspect of things, the production of concepts and ideas, that is, the scalable part of the products, and, increasingly, by exporting jobs, separate the less scalable components and assign them to those happy to be paid by the hour.
There is more money in designing a shoe than in actually making it: Nike, Dell, and Boeing can get paid for just thinking, organiz-ing, and leveraging their know-how and ideas while subcontracted factories in developing countries do the grunt work and engineers in cultured and mathematical states do the noncreative technical grind.
Elsewhere he describes it as more clearly as risk-taking and having more balls, rather than “creative”, but yes.
US specializing in the more profitable first part.
India preferring to specialize in the less profitable less bold second part.
India vs US culture.
Those who’ve tried to work in or with both places realize it more than anyone.
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Well, it so happens that America is currently far, far more creative than these nations of museumgoers and equation solvers. It is also far more tolerant of bottom-up tinkering and undirected trial and error.
United States specializes in the creative aspect of things, the production of concepts and ideas, that is, the scalable part of the products, and, increasingly, by exporting jobs, separate the less scalable components and assign them to those happy to be paid by the hour.
There is more money in designing a shoe than in actually making it: Nike, Dell, and Boeing can get paid for just thinking, organiz-ing, and leveraging their know-how and ideas while subcontracted factories in developing countries do the grunt work and engineers in cultured and mathematical states do the noncreative technical grind.
Elsewhere he describes it as more clearly as risk-taking and having more balls, rather than “creative”, but yes.
US specializing in the more profitable first part.
India preferring to specialize in the less profitable less bold second part.
India vs US culture.
Those who’ve tried to work in or with both places realize it more than anyone.
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Roughly, yes
More precisely,
Embracing the consequences of power-law distribution of returns, which involves
(1) Judging by EV rather than realized value, EV rather than hit-rate so far
— i.e. Judging value of a bet by “does this have elements of a good bet”, rather than just what the realized outcome of the bet is.
Why? Well, this is always how you should judge bets in general, but, this is particularly especially true with 100x bets.
In other much higher hit rate domains, like loans, you CAN often get away with cheating, doing the “wrong” thing by judging just based on realized hit-rate instead of EV.
Not with these kinds of bets though.
Power-law distribution of returns of these 100x bets means that — the majority of good bets will often end up underwater.
So if you keep switching your investment criteria based on your realized win rate so far, rather than EV — you’ll end up missing the big wins.
Cannot judge or make changes based on hit rate, in this high-EV low-hit-rate domain.
Must instead value bets based on:
+ “Does this have elements of a good bet”
+ “Did this have elemets of a good bet”
= Both largely remaining identical both before and long after the bet is made
Both essentially independent of any particular realized outcome.
Hit-rate vs EV — understand the difference, massive difference, even though in some domains you can get away with wrongly substituting one for the other.
(2) Small & medium sized wins are FAILURES, not wins — Get a 2x return for your VC, you’re essentially a failure, because the few 50x-1000x wins are what saves the whole rest of the VCs portfolio. If you stop at 2x, you've doomed the VCs portfolio. Similar in crypto, achieve a 2x or 3x after a 3-4 years? Congrats, your returns were likely much worse than just holding the majors.
— Power-law distribution of returns, where the majority of bets tend to be underwater, mean that just slightly above water wins are effectively FAILURES too, from the portfolio’s perspective. Only massively high EV wins are wins here.
(3) What “failure” as they’re using here actually usually translates to in US, often involves simply trying multiple things and repeatedly pivoting until you find what works — while each time making sure that each tried thing has high EV, has elements of a good high-EV bet
Good betters here will know that with enough high-EV shots on the goal, if they are properly high-EV, then only a matter of time before you strike it big.
(4) Though, to bet on this 100x bet strategy involving extreme power-law distribution of returns — again it should be plausible that at least a couple of the bets have the potential to 100x or 1000x. Which may not be true everywhere. May not be true in India tech for whatever reasons, which may keep those wishing to employ this betting strategy away from e.g. tech investments in India, if there are simply no unicorns there.
= So, by “failure” they really mean “boldness” needed to pursue the 100x+ wins, because in this kind of portfolio strategy the small wins are literally losses, and the wins infrequent enough that you’re forced to judge by “elements of a good bet” EV rather than realized hit rate so far.
Mathcels can translate this into the math behind this reasoning, but there you go.
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
More precisely,
Embracing the consequences of power-law distribution of returns, which involves
(1) Judging by EV rather than realized value, EV rather than hit-rate so far
— i.e. Judging value of a bet by “does this have elements of a good bet”, rather than just what the realized outcome of the bet is.
Why? Well, this is always how you should judge bets in general, but, this is particularly especially true with 100x bets.
In other much higher hit rate domains, like loans, you CAN often get away with cheating, doing the “wrong” thing by judging just based on realized hit-rate instead of EV.
Not with these kinds of bets though.
Power-law distribution of returns of these 100x bets means that — the majority of good bets will often end up underwater.
So if you keep switching your investment criteria based on your realized win rate so far, rather than EV — you’ll end up missing the big wins.
Cannot judge or make changes based on hit rate, in this high-EV low-hit-rate domain.
Must instead value bets based on:
+ “Does this have elements of a good bet”
+ “Did this have elemets of a good bet”
= Both largely remaining identical both before and long after the bet is made
Both essentially independent of any particular realized outcome.
Hit-rate vs EV — understand the difference, massive difference, even though in some domains you can get away with wrongly substituting one for the other.
(2) Small & medium sized wins are FAILURES, not wins — Get a 2x return for your VC, you’re essentially a failure, because the few 50x-1000x wins are what saves the whole rest of the VCs portfolio. If you stop at 2x, you've doomed the VCs portfolio. Similar in crypto, achieve a 2x or 3x after a 3-4 years? Congrats, your returns were likely much worse than just holding the majors.
— Power-law distribution of returns, where the majority of bets tend to be underwater, mean that just slightly above water wins are effectively FAILURES too, from the portfolio’s perspective. Only massively high EV wins are wins here.
(3) What “failure” as they’re using here actually usually translates to in US, often involves simply trying multiple things and repeatedly pivoting until you find what works — while each time making sure that each tried thing has high EV, has elements of a good high-EV bet
Good betters here will know that with enough high-EV shots on the goal, if they are properly high-EV, then only a matter of time before you strike it big.
(4) Though, to bet on this 100x bet strategy involving extreme power-law distribution of returns — again it should be plausible that at least a couple of the bets have the potential to 100x or 1000x. Which may not be true everywhere. May not be true in India tech for whatever reasons, which may keep those wishing to employ this betting strategy away from e.g. tech investments in India, if there are simply no unicorns there.
= So, by “failure” they really mean “boldness” needed to pursue the 100x+ wins, because in this kind of portfolio strategy the small wins are literally losses, and the wins infrequent enough that you’re forced to judge by “elements of a good bet” EV rather than realized hit rate so far.
Mathcels can translate this into the math behind this reasoning, but there you go.
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Some begging everyone “just moves on” from these central economic issues
“Just moving on” past this issue is like
….“just moving on” past finding out that your new girlfriend has a dick
Kind of the very top #1 issue, always has been and always will be, as long as it’s in the way
Innately,
#1st dimension = always money, distribution of wealth — egalitarian equal distribution among all people on one side -vs- some unequal distribution involving a mix of some kind of market mechanisms and property rights on the other side
#2nd dimension = always about who or what has the authority, absolute human authoritarians at one extreme, vs rule by something other than the whims of man at the other extreme
— First, primary dimension ALWAYS had been and always will be this economic dimension
Doubly so for this election,
— Where the central theme was remigration, immigration crisis, they’re eating the cats, eating the dogs
H1B issue couldn’t be more perfectly in the crosshairs of the most central issues of the moment, fundamentally, innately
“Just moving on” past this this issue is like “just moving on” past finding out your new girlfriend has a big fat cock
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“Just moving on” past this issue is like
….“just moving on” past finding out that your new girlfriend has a dick
Kind of the very top #1 issue, always has been and always will be, as long as it’s in the way
Innately,
#1st dimension = always money, distribution of wealth — egalitarian equal distribution among all people on one side -vs- some unequal distribution involving a mix of some kind of market mechanisms and property rights on the other side
#2nd dimension = always about who or what has the authority, absolute human authoritarians at one extreme, vs rule by something other than the whims of man at the other extreme
— First, primary dimension ALWAYS had been and always will be this economic dimension
Doubly so for this election,
— Where the central theme was remigration, immigration crisis, they’re eating the cats, eating the dogs
H1B issue couldn’t be more perfectly in the crosshairs of the most central issues of the moment, fundamentally, innately
“Just moving on” past this this issue is like “just moving on” past finding out your new girlfriend has a big fat cock
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
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