F

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GM

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Usual January dump

Cycles repeat

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Lefty government trying to quickly dump $6.5 billion in $BTC to attack the right

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State of crypto influencers

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Timeline arguing over whether these $6 billion worth of $BTC have already been sold, or will be sold

+ Some saying that they haven’t been, because the coins haven’t moved

+ Others pointing out that in big sales like these, the sale is first done by old fashioned contracts, and then the delivery only happens much later — e.g. just like the FTX $SOL sale

+ Others saying that even if the sale hasn’t happened, it’s already priced in

+ Others pointing out that if the sale hasn’t already happened, then any sale may not be able to happen quickly enough before the incoming administration somehow gets it cancelled = Upward boom when the priced-in sale doesn’t materialize

Looking into it

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No cellular service in the fire-affected areas

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Sell-on-Binance often does seem to be a good rule

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Unexpectedly terrible things happen, when people treat high-yield investments or insurance — as if it’s a savings account,

= suddenly at the worst possible times, people are incentivized to DESTROY the investment or insurance vehicle,

because they falsely believe that the investment or insurance is destroyed, then they can magically just get back what they previously put in, which they assess to be more than the vehicle would otherwise pay out

— Which ofc does not work out at all, when e.g. the insurance money they paid in during previous years may already be long-gone, paid out to other claimants in past years, or the investment money was already spent on executing the investment plan

— What makes this particularly bad, is, in many cases the disaster could’ve been avoided entirely, if the consumers hadn’t falsely believed that they would be better off financially if the thing was destroyed, e.g. relatively simple mitigations or help earlier on, or at least not trying to actively destroy the thing, often may have easily prevented the financial disaster in the first place

Those insured demanding that they DO get a payout whether or not an insured disaster happens, unless previously mutually agreed, which it wouldn’t be as it’s economically nonsensical

— is a scam —

In the same way that an insurer demanding that they DON’T pay out, no matter if the insured disaster happens or not

Likewise with an investor demanding upside with zero downside risk, or an investee accepting funds but refusing to pay out gains in literally all scenarios

Etc.

Now, this is NOT to say that the insurance/investment companies themselves can’t be bad, they certainly can be and often are

— What this IS to say is that neither side has a total monopoly on destructive scam potential, if left totally unchecked

(You might bring up reinsurers that are ultimately backed by the government… But that only really achieves zero-cost extra safety, without ultimately inflating the dollar, for cases where random chance would make a smaller pool more likely to get wrecked. Not what we’re talking about here.)

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