$XRP — Beware max-longing just UNDER previous ATH.

Common technical-analysis phenomena is price accelerating more as it gets closer to previous ATH — and then bouncing hard back downward off of that prior ATH

= exact opposite of what a normie-minded momentum-based strategy would suggest

= MOST DANGEROUS time to go max-long is JUST UNDER a highly-anticipated crossing of previous ATH,

This isn’t $XRP-specific, have previously written about many getting wrecked by the same penomena on $ETH, $SOL, $BTC and other coins

Beware the normie tendency to finally go max-long just under previous ATH

FYI, previous $XRP ATH appears to be ~$3.84

Big question — Will $XRP bounce back downward upon reaching previous $ATH, or will it surge past it?

Another question — Will $XRP memes finally boom, for more than just a couple days? If not — that’s a strong sign that the savvy traders are expecting XRP to implode

IMO, even though we talk about $SOL and $BTC prices all the time — us early-stage buyers don’t ACTUALLY really care about them directly — but rather the MASSIVE effect of small $SOL or $BTC prices on the smaller coins, which go 100x from small $SOL or $BTC movements, and which we tend to make 99% of our overall portolio gains from in the end.

I.e. the second-order effects of a major’s price movement is what really matters, for us early-stage buyers — Will $XRP finally have those second-order effects e.g. on $XRP memecoins this time? Hasn’t in the past. Let’s see.

Will write more on non-technical analysis aspects of $XRP later.

Beware max-longing just BENEATH previous ATH

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Alright, time to take a fresh look at all new coins built upon $XRP (XPRL), within the past 3 days, which have surpassed $1M market cap

…oh

IMO… kind of a strong signal that traders don’t expect the XRP spike to last

And/or, strong signal that the XRP coins UX is terrible… which it kind of is — you have to enter two numbers whenever you do a transfer, and if you forget to enter the second number then your coins are gone?

Not exactly normie friendly at all…

Let’s see what other clues we can find.

Dexscreener for all coins built upon $XRP within last 3 days that have achieved at least $1M market cap

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FWIW, the $XRP memecoin that some big influencers were shilling last week

— is about in the same place it was last week, despite the recent surge in the underlying $XRP

hmm

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Very a bad idea to short the #1 most technically illegitimate thing you can find

— Even if you’re totally right about it being technically illigitimate,

and even if technical legitimacy USUALLY is a predictive factor

Why?

= BEING #1 AT ANYTHING IS ALWAYS A SPECIAL PLACE, in markets

Even if that’s being the #1 biggest larp — there are buyers who will buy it for that reason alone

— AND THIS IS FUNDAMENTALLY WHAT SEPARATES MARKETS WAY FROM LEFTY CONSENSUS WAY:

== MARKET WAY ==

✅ Permissionless on downside — Detractors are irrelevant, NO RICH DUDE CAN DIRECTLY PUSH YOUR PRICE DOWN (and no retards, shorting does not directly push the price down), unbounded possible different measures of merit

✅ Permissionless on upside — Supporters are all that matters, ANY RICH DUDE CAN DIRECTLY PUSH THE PRICE UP = doesn’t matter how many haters or how strongly they hate, as long as there are ANY big believers. Power-law distribution of resources means your supporters can be in the extreme minority and your price can still be pushed to the moon, unbounded possible different measures of merit

== LEFTY CONSENSUS WAY ==

❌ Permissioned downside — ANY VETOS IN THE CONSENSUS HAVE A DIRECT NEGATIVE IMPACT, Often only ONE measure of merit

❌ Permissioned upside — MUST GET CONSENSUS APPROVAL, NOT JUST ANY PERSON WITH THE MONEY CAN PUSH THE PRICE TO THE MOON, NO MATTER HOW RIGHT THEY ARE IN REALITY, Often must pass some ONE measure of merit

= Many wrongly have a commie consensus vision of what real markets are, when really they are the extreme opposite, in the key areas that matter most

Consequence of this is that it doesn’t matter how horrible something is in one area

— All that matters is if it is great in ANY area, that ANYONE might consider great

Beware ever shorting the #1 in anything, even if it’s #1 fake larp

ANYONE & ANY MEASURE OF MERIT —VS— CONSENSUS & SINGLE MEASURE OF MERIT

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Total collapse of irl socializing

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$99k $BTC forever

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By “stuck” they mean $XRP’s historical habit of crashing hard down 90%+ in a very short time,

and not recovering to those highs again until years later

History loves to repeat

Will it?

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Apparently the highest-agency thing OpenAI could think of, to hop on the agentic AI trend

— Is scheduled running of prompts

By itself… pretty weak, much like their prompt app store that flopped

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