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Degens Deteriorating
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$TRUMP ~10x was good — but not (yet) great, for those taking the classic VC-style investing approach, which you should


In fact 10x would still be considered a “failure”, by the classic VC rules of thumb

= 50x has always been the rule-of-thumb minimum to be considered “success” in classic VC portfolio strategy

Because need to overcome all the losers too

So, by itself, so far, $TRUMP was good but definitely not enough for success on its own

What IS great is that it has huge liquidity, enabling far more of those with 10x gains to reinvest into other coins, which could quickly 100x.

— Still entirely possible $TRUMP does >50x, but at the same time, 10x is FAR too early, by the classic VC rules of thumb, to call it a huge success yet

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Not exaggerating to say that 50x is the bare minimum in classic early-stage VC strategy,

And if you try to lock in a guaranteed win at e.g. 5x or 10x, rather than shooting for 50x+

— The VCs will tell you, “bro, wtf are you doing”

Shoot for the stars is the rule in the early-stage regime

Not because they’re moon-chasers

But literally because the math of early-stage investing requires it

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Memecoiners —

What business are you in?

Extreme outcomes drive returns

50x+ are all that matters

Nature of the beast

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Another classic VC rule of thumb, “1/3, 1/3, 1/3”

i.e.

33% — are 100% loss, straight to $0
33% — are ~1x, break-even
33% — are the bulk of returns

Which turns out to be partially right, in that ~66% either return 0 or break-even

— But off on that last 33%,

Because in practice it’s really more like just ONE SINGLE INVESTMENT, maybe 2,

MAKING THE RETURNS THAT SAVE THE WHOLE REST OF THE PORTFOLIO

— And if you miss that one 500x or 2000x big one, then you’re dead, just completely dead

Finito

— Which is why in these things you really can never sleep,

Always must be watching

Because you miss that 1 huge hit and your whole portfolio is

DEAD

This is also why it can make sense to partially outsource such a thing to competent people instead of all doing yourself, to have someone always watching, not miss the big one in your sleep

Miss the 1 or 2 big ones and you’re DEAD

Nature of the beast

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Trump announces plan to give TikTok a 90 extension

Which briefly dumps prediction market app store ban odds

But then odds shoot right back up

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Forget about VPNs to get around the TikTok ban

There will be no VPN workaround

TikTok pulling the plug

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Many sharing these $USA rumors,

but “albright & emerson pllc” doesn’t exist?

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“albright & emerson”

law firm does not seem to exist at all

Larp, imo

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Communists have arrested South Korean anti-communist president Yoon

Good reason that, for better or worse, well-designed governance systems make the president immune from criminal persecution by the other branches

Yoon is the country's first sitting president to be arrested

Communists not about to stop

Long march

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Commies around the world always syncing up on their accusations

Watch a scam have some success in one place, copy & paste to another

Seems uniquely common on the left, as opposed to on the right

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Commie media calling commie infiltration in South Korea a “conspiracy theory”

Yeah, no way there could be communist Koreans. No way.

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Commie news always saying he’s “divisive” and “dangerous”

But never saying he’s “wrong”

“Alienating some voters”?

No sh$t, alienating full blow commies is something you should want to do

Left’s long march

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“insurrection”

Of course

Commies always just copying whatever nonsense language they see working for commies elsewhere

To them, truth irrelevant, signaling everything

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Meanwhile, threat of attacks from the left got US on high-alert for upcoming inauguration as well

For good reason

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