OpenAI’s vibes are just bad

Ethereum’s vibes are just bad

Always have been

But it took the markets turning against them for people to finally admit it

And when that time came, the turning was swift

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What does this show?

Yes, the DeepSeek website frontend is censored,

But it also shows that the actual DeepSeek model, which they open sourced — is not

The open sourced DeepSeek model is perhaps the LEAST CENSORED state of the art model in many years

Not to mention being the most powerful open source AI model by far

Good reason that AI builders have been going crazy for DeepsSeek over the past couple weeks

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GM

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Bitcoin explodes first,

then after a short delay,

the rest follow

Ready?

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Lefty safetiest leaders of US AI have outstayed their welcome

Lefty safetiest leaders of Ethereum have outstayed their welcome

Chinese AI came bearing the first decent open source AI model, far less lefty moralizing, which the people loved

Solana came bearing memes and a solution to many kinds of draining attacks, which the people loved

See ya later Ethereum

See ya later OpenAI

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86 day gap between the Bitcoin surge and smaller coins surge last cycle

70 days since this chart was created

~16 days left

But how do we know if there will be a serious altcoin/memecoin surge later in this cycle?

Got to look at the mechanics of what drives this lagged effect

Consider 2 points:

(1) Bitcoin holders ONLY heavily start to heavily rotate into smaller coins — when they feel like $BTC is running out of steam for the cycle

So do $BTC holders feel like BTC is running out of steam?

(2) NO. NO ONE feels like $BTC is running out of steam for this cycle. EVERYONE right now knows that $BTC is set to push much higher

— You almost can’t even find anyone who believes that $BTC is within even 50% of its cycle top, not even among the biggest bears

= So extremely little fear of $BTC running out of steam

= Extremely little of the $BTC billions in fast gains rotating into the smaller coins and memes yet

When you think about it, it’s rather obvious

Remember also that not much of the $BTC needs to be sold back to $USD when these crypto investments are done, it mostly stays in crypto, since those in crypto tend to all deal in crypto

— Meaning a large altcoin / memecoin investment frenzy phase can occur without creating much downward pressure on the prices, and attract even more money into crypto as a whole

= Totally in $BTC holders’ rational best interest to hold until there’s bigger fear of topping out for the cycle

= Totally against $BTC holders’ rational best interest to NOT spurn an altcoin / memecoin investment boom as they begin to near the point where $BTC is approaching topping out

Not to mention that this is historically exactly what has happened before

NO it is NOT DIFFERENT this time

Altcoin / memecoin boom right around the corner

Get ready

16 days

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“But it’s bundled”

+ Top winners: bundle

+ Mediocre losers: don’t bundle

+ Scams: bundle

Midwit curves everywhere

This is why nearly all anti-scam signals fail

— Because the “one deal that returns the fund” top coins tend to match many of those common “scam signals” too

Be careful in applying anti-scam signals, or you’ll miss the one deal that returns the fund

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Another way to look at the ~86 day gap lag between the $BTC boom an the altcoin / memecoin boom

= Classic, well-proven economic principle of deflation

I.e. the currency predictably rising in value

When everyone knows the currency is about to raise in value, i.e. deflate, they stop making investments, because they expect the currency deflation to outpace the prospective investments

Only when people start to fear that the currency is about to start losing value, i.e. inflate, do they suddenly want to make investments, because they now expect those investments to outperform the inflating currency

Nearly everyone has a strong expectation that $BTC is about to go higher very soon

= deflation

= kills investments

Only once it gets closer to an anticipated cycle top, will the anticipation shift back to being that $BTC’s rise is about to rise or slow

= inflation

= rise in investments

As with fiat, the most powerful booms happen when there is:

— predictable deflation followed by inflation

This is what has lead to the biggest tradfi stock market booms of all time

This is what’s about to happen in crypto

Nothing new under the sun

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