NEW BOT Телеграм, страница

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ALTSEASON UPDATE

Bitcoin dominance is breaking down

Once it breaks below 60%, Altcoins

will start to pumping 2x-3x randomly

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Russians trying to fool our AI interceptor drones by putting bird stickers onto their reconnaissance drones.

Insane warfare.

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A lot of replies to this are missing the fact that something this dumb can actually fool a lot of AI vision. It's actually not a terrible idea to try

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Backend devs realizing they will still have a job for at least a couple of months

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New paper by Jensen, Pesta & Kirkegaard shows a decline in global IQ by 1.1 point per decade, falling from 85.9 to 77.4 between 2023 and 2100

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NEW: Thousands evacuated as wildfire spreads north of Los Angeles

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I have a hypothesis but I cannot talk about it

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"education is failing us"

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Let me talk today about sponge cities.

When I discuss fertility decline, I often get the following comment:

“As the population falls, housing prices will also fall, which will help with fertility and the system will self-correct.”

Perhaps not.

As the population falls, we are observing a phenomenon called sponge cities (see the map from Japan: do you know which city is the green spot?). There are even more incentives for the population to concentrate in large cities (e.g., Tokyo or Seoul) for three reasons:

1⃣ Jobs. As the population shrinks in many regions, jobs disappear with it. Yes, you can telecommute for some jobs, but there are fewer of those than you’d think. A plumber cannot telecommute.

2⃣ Services. As the population shrinks in many regions, services like grocery stores, hospitals, schools, etc., also disappear. I’ve seen this in many villages in Europe: population falls below a threshold, and the local supermarket closes. This creates a negative spiral that’s hard to break.

3⃣ Amenities. As the population shrinks, amenities like bars, theaters, and restaurants vanish too. And it turns out people, especially younger cohorts, care more about amenities than about jobs. You might be telecommuting, but you cannot telebar.

So it might well be the case that housing prices won’t fall in sponge cities, and that this won’t help fertility.

Self-correcting mechanisms often don’t work.

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Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas in new note: "We estimate 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour, generating an NPV of ~$200k/humanoid. 1 robot car can potentially drive down cost/mile of a ride share vehicle to <$0.20/mile (1/10th human-driven ride share). The marginal cost of your personal C-3PO robot should, over time, approach the marginal cost of power - you can't have GPUs without BTUs."

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