2025-08-21, 23:59 UTC
489 days after halving
Current: $112,347.10
2012 scaled: $2,476,782.57
2016 scaled: $647,519.02
2020 scaled: $333,902.90
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489 days after halving
Current: $112,347.10
2012 scaled: $2,476,782.57
2016 scaled: $647,519.02
2020 scaled: $333,902.90
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🤖🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
DoomPosting
If you bet $100 on a bet for which you knew you truly had 1% chance or winning, and then you lost, was that a good bet?
FYI quick sketch of expected value vs number of bets -- compared to value percentile vs number of bets
Notice how the dashed expected value line is simple and linear, with positive net EV from the very first bet
— but the percentile lines tell a very different story:
= Even after 100 bets, at a cost of $1 per bet
+ nearly 50% of the time you’ll still be at a total loss of -$100
+ though ~1% of the time you’ll have as high as ~$5 million in winnings after 100 bets
i.e.
Expected value is a rather horribly useless measure for many practical needs — totally misses that you’d still be totally bankrupt ~half the time even after 100 bets
Expected value was only ever obsessed about — because it’s very easily to calculate
These curves are very hard to figure out how to calculate… but now e.g. GPT-5 can finally nail these kinds of calculations, a large percent of the time, at last.
(“Value percentile” isn’t the real name for these VaR values at higher percentiles. Not sure if these even have any common name.)
(Btw, yes the percentile lines do form stairsteps spaced 1/percent_win = 100 bets apart for the 50th percentile line, whereas the average line is smooth.)
I.e. proper valuing math gets wildly hard fast, even trivial toy examples
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
Notice how the dashed expected value line is simple and linear, with positive net EV from the very first bet
— but the percentile lines tell a very different story:
= Even after 100 bets, at a cost of $1 per bet
+ nearly 50% of the time you’ll still be at a total loss of -$100
+ though ~1% of the time you’ll have as high as ~$5 million in winnings after 100 bets
i.e.
Expected value is a rather horribly useless measure for many practical needs — totally misses that you’d still be totally bankrupt ~half the time even after 100 bets
Expected value was only ever obsessed about — because it’s very easily to calculate
These curves are very hard to figure out how to calculate… but now e.g. GPT-5 can finally nail these kinds of calculations, a large percent of the time, at last.
(“Value percentile” isn’t the real name for these VaR values at higher percentiles. Not sure if these even have any common name.)
(Btw, yes the percentile lines do form stairsteps spaced 1/percent_win = 100 bets apart for the 50th percentile line, whereas the average line is smooth.)
I.e. proper valuing math gets wildly hard fast, even trivial toy examples
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Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan–ATLAS)
It has a period of 80,000 years. The last time it was this close, Earth was inhabited by Neanderthals.
We'll never see it again.
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It has a period of 80,000 years. The last time it was this close, Earth was inhabited by Neanderthals.
We'll never see it again.
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🤖🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
❤🔥6👌1
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Stray dog accidentally becomes the first to cross the Romania-Hungary border after Romania became a full member of the European Union's Schengen area
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Japan will pour 10 trillion yen (about $68 billion) into India over the next decade, more than doubling its earlier 5 trillion yen pledge
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Florida nurse Alexis Von Yates takes plea deal after husband caught her allegedly having sex with 15-year-old stepson
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“The African Conception of Time”
From Polish Author Ryszard Kapuściński’s Book ‘The Shadow of the Sun’, about his time in Africa
“We climb into the bus and sit down. At this point there is a risk of culture clash, of collisions and conflict. It will undoubtedly occur if the passenger is a foreigner who doesn’t know Africa. Someone like that wil start looking around, squirming, inquiring “When will the bus leave?"
“What do you mean, when?” The astonished driver will reply. “It will leave when we find enough people to fill it up."
The Europeans and the Africans have an entirely different concept of time. In the European worldview, time exists outside man, exists objectively, and has measurable and linear characteristics. According to Newton, time is absolute: “Absolute, true, mathematical time of itself and from its own nature, it flows equably and without relation to anything external”.
The European feels himself to be time’s slave, dependent on it, subject to it. To exist and function, he must observe its ironclad, inviolate laws, its inflexible principles and rules. He must need deadlines, dates, days and hours. He moves within the rigor of time and cannot exist outside them. They impose upon him their requirements and quotas. An unresolvable conflict exists between man and time, one that always ends with man’s defeat - time annihilates him.
Africans apprehend time differently. For them, it is much looser concept, more open, elastic, subjective. It is a man who influences time, its shape, course and rhythm (man acting, of course, with the consent of gods and ancestors). Time is even something that that man can create outright, for time is made manifest through events, and whether an event takes place or not depends, after all, on man alone. If two armies do not engage in a battle, then that battle will not occur (in other words, time will not have revealed its presence, will not have come into being).
Time appears as a result of our actions, and vanishes when we neglect or ignore it. It is something that springs to life under our influence, but falls into a state of hibernation, even non-existence, if we do not direct our energy towards it. It is a subservient, passive essence, and, most importantly, one dependent on man.
The absolute opposite of time as it is understood in the European worldview.
In practical terms, this means that if you go to a village where a meeting is scheduled for the afternoon but find no one at the appointed spot, asking “When will the meeting take place?" makes no sense. You know the answer: “It will take place when people come”.
Therefore the African who boards a bus sits down in a vacant seat, and immediately falls into a state in which he spends a great portion of his life: a benumbed waiting.”
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🤖🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
From Polish Author Ryszard Kapuściński’s Book ‘The Shadow of the Sun’, about his time in Africa
“We climb into the bus and sit down. At this point there is a risk of culture clash, of collisions and conflict. It will undoubtedly occur if the passenger is a foreigner who doesn’t know Africa. Someone like that wil start looking around, squirming, inquiring “When will the bus leave?"
“What do you mean, when?” The astonished driver will reply. “It will leave when we find enough people to fill it up."
The Europeans and the Africans have an entirely different concept of time. In the European worldview, time exists outside man, exists objectively, and has measurable and linear characteristics. According to Newton, time is absolute: “Absolute, true, mathematical time of itself and from its own nature, it flows equably and without relation to anything external”.
The European feels himself to be time’s slave, dependent on it, subject to it. To exist and function, he must observe its ironclad, inviolate laws, its inflexible principles and rules. He must need deadlines, dates, days and hours. He moves within the rigor of time and cannot exist outside them. They impose upon him their requirements and quotas. An unresolvable conflict exists between man and time, one that always ends with man’s defeat - time annihilates him.
Africans apprehend time differently. For them, it is much looser concept, more open, elastic, subjective. It is a man who influences time, its shape, course and rhythm (man acting, of course, with the consent of gods and ancestors). Time is even something that that man can create outright, for time is made manifest through events, and whether an event takes place or not depends, after all, on man alone. If two armies do not engage in a battle, then that battle will not occur (in other words, time will not have revealed its presence, will not have come into being).
Time appears as a result of our actions, and vanishes when we neglect or ignore it. It is something that springs to life under our influence, but falls into a state of hibernation, even non-existence, if we do not direct our energy towards it. It is a subservient, passive essence, and, most importantly, one dependent on man.
The absolute opposite of time as it is understood in the European worldview.
In practical terms, this means that if you go to a village where a meeting is scheduled for the afternoon but find no one at the appointed spot, asking “When will the meeting take place?" makes no sense. You know the answer: “It will take place when people come”.
Therefore the African who boards a bus sits down in a vacant seat, and immediately falls into a state in which he spends a great portion of his life: a benumbed waiting.”
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Incidentally, I just saw the Smithsonian poster on whiteness culture again for the first time in a few years. It includes "future orientation" & "planning for the future" implying other cultures might not plan for the future
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TikTok has overhauled its hate speech rules, banning users from calling the IDF “terrorists” and narrowing its policy on supremacy from covering “all racial supremacy” to only “White supremacy.”
The shift came just 15 days after the company hired Erica Mindel, a former IDF instructor and self-described “proud Zionist,” as its Public Policy Manager for Hate Speech.
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The shift came just 15 days after the company hired Erica Mindel, a former IDF instructor and self-described “proud Zionist,” as its Public Policy Manager for Hate Speech.
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